I mentioned it on fb but did Denise Juneau not run because it was a terrible experience last time? She seems like someone the national GOP would be Hillary-scale merciless in attacking, but that could have won this one time. Especially if she'd gotten some early money from the party.

I seriously hope this isn't for real.

 sirdroseph wrote:
I'm assuming you're referring to the recent election.

Our governor (who beat the Republican who just won the house seat in the 2016 election) and one of our senators are democrats. Not quite half the lege. Granted, most of those people wouldn't be allowed anywhere near a ballot in most blue states, but they are Democrats.

No, Gianforte had buckets of money and good name recognition going into the race. The Democrats don't have a very deep bench in Montana so there wasn't a star looking to shine here; they were also riven by factions and petty maneuvering left over from the last election—Bernie convincingly won the Democratic presidential primary here but the party infrastructure is run by people who actually attend meetings and stuff, so they are at odds with the loudest of the grass roots). They looked at the presidential result and decided (along with the national party) that the race was hopeless.

They nominated a political nobody with nothing to lose, who had never run for elected office and had no clue how to campaign or what the issues are. He was widely beloved as a musician and that was the only thing most people knew about him. They figured he'd keep the base engaged and lose with dignity. When he won the nomination everybody figured they weren't serious and wrote the race off.

He stumbled doggedly around the state and put a brave face on it, but all of a sudden power brokers elsewhere decided this election was a Referendum On Trump and threw sacks of money at it. Gianforte was every bit as charming as he was losing the governor's race and it began to look like a contest. At the last minute the national Democratic party kicked in some cash and we got non-stop TV ads and campaign calls and mail flyers; they figure the Gianforte and Quist campaigns spent $20/vote. I got four survey calls and two get-out-the-vote calls on election day (I had voted by mail three weeks earlier) and threw away at least two glossy postcards a day for the last month.

At the only televised debate the Libertarians fought their way onto the stage and both major party candidates looked like department store mannequins. When the press scored the debate the Libertarian candidate won. Gianforte was evasive on major issues and Quist didn't say anything stupid (mostly by avoiding saying anything at all) so the race tightened up a skosh. Then came The Bodyslam.

Gianforte's endorsements evaporated; all three major newspapers withdrew their support. Our one Republican senator distanced himself, saying he should apologize. He didn't; he went to ground and stayed quiet. But his momentum (and early votes cast by mail—a quick poll by the local paper had 20% of respondents wishing they could take their vote back over this) was enough to carry the day and he beat Quist by 5 points.

So no, we don't hate Democrats—at least not our Democrats. We don't think much of your Democrats (Standing Up To Nancy Pelosi is a sure-fire applause line in Montana) but this was driven by local politics. People are going to read way too much into it. Gianforte has pinned a huge bullseye on his back; he may never recover from his temper tantrum and everywhere he goes in public there will be a political operative goading him to lose it and repeat this performance. This election was a train wreck that will go on and on. But don't believe everything you read and don't assume you understand us yokels based on how most of us voted for president. There's always more going on.

 

They nominated a political nobody with nothing to lose, who had never run for elected office and had no clue how to campaign or what the issues are. He was widely beloved as a musician and that was the only thing most people knew about him. They figured he'd keep the base engaged and lose with dignity. When he won the nomination everybody figured they weren't serious and wrote the race off.

Wow. You guys must really dislike Democrats! I think everyone is so hung up on the obvious (low hanging fruit, sky is blue) issues with the Republicans they are missing the point that the real driving force seems to be an intense hatred of Democrats. Amazing. You want Trump? Cause that is how you got Trump.
Edit: When I say you, I obviously mean the rhetorical you. I know you know whats up. 

 aflanigan wrote:
With both in-laws anthropology professors and a son and daughter-in-law both having freshly-minted anthropology degrees I can get an earful without leaving home.

They didn't like his first book (Guns, Germs, and Steel) much better, but I thought it had some interesting insights. The praise that got might have gone to his head.

Always wondered why you spent so much time traveling. Now I realize you must go to excavation sites to ask the many anthropologists of the world what they think about Diamond's books.

 

I seriously hope this isn't for real.

 kcar wrote:
Diamond's book is pretty much universally derided by anthropologists. Helena, MT (the example cited in the book) is actually a good refutation. It's not a dystopian wasteland, it's a mining town a hundred years after the initial rush. The late 19th century mining boom brought people here in large numbers and the mines were extraordinarily productive (some well into the 20th century), but many of them moved on to the next boom when it played out. That wealth was temporary. Civilization (such as it was) didn't collapse, the rest of the economy didn't collapse. The brothels closed but the town lives on.

Failing to understand that aspect of an extraction economy brought Diamond to some bogus conclusions.

Diamond's book is pretty much universally derided by anthropologists.

Maybe he's just not cut out for the blood sport that modern politics is. Supposedly it's not the first time he's threatened to harm reporters.

Apparently Montana was one of the richest states in the union around 1900 but by 2000 it was one of the poorest. I believe Jared Diamond's book "Collapse" talks about this in its preface. 

Article I, Section 5: "Each House shall be the judge of the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members, and a majority of each shall constitute a quorum to do business; but a smaller number may adjourn from day to day, and may be authorized to compel the attendance of absent members, in such manner, and under such penalties as each House may provide."

Subsequently limited by Supreme court decisions to refusing to seat an elected representative only if s/he doesn't meet the legal qualifications for office. So no, Gianforte has been charged with misdemeanor assault and won't have a hearing until after the election, but even if convicted that wouldn't disqualify him from office.

He still has supporters, but a friend of mine who was working on his campaign first shared then deleted a Facebook post promoting his version (the mean old reporter was in my face). She has since gone very quiet. I haven't heard much from those still in his camp and what I have heard has been lukewarm let's-not-rush-to-judgement stuff.

It's not playing well. A Fox TV crew witnessed the whole thing and their account squares with the Guardian reporter's. The online chatter has gone almost entirely against him. The three major newspapers that had endorsed him have all withdrawn their endorsements.

It may not cost him the election, but it will hurt his legitimacy if he wins.

And he's not a monster. My youngest went to school with his kids, they're decent people and he has accomplished great things in the area. I don't know him personally but I know a lot of people who do and I have never heard anyone here say he had a temper like this. Maybe the stress of two political campaigns in a row (he just ran for governor and lost to the incumbent) got to him. Since nobody running has any political experience to talk up it has almost entirely been negative; petty stuff but ugly for our politics. Maybe he just snapped. But if he loses this race he's done. I can't see him bouncing back from this, might be tough to run again even if he wins.

What are the criteria for impeachment? Assault is a fairly serious crime in most places (maybe not so much in Montana if it's against a 'liberal media reporter').