(...) In one of many ironies, the N.C.R.I. (National Council of Resistance of Iran) is dominated by the M.E.K., or Mujahideen-e-Khalq, a cultlike movement that blends Marxist and Islamic tenets. It was among the first groups added to the United States’ list of foreign terrorist organizations, in 1997. It is still held responsible for the murder of U.S. military personnel, an attempted kidnapping of an American Ambassador, and other violent attacks in Iran before the Revolution in 1979. It participated in the Revolution but eventually split with the clerics. The M.E.K. was harbored by the former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, which is one of several reasons that it has limited support inside of Iran today. Many of its fighters were relocated to Albania after the American invasion. It was removed from the U.S.’s terrorist list in 2012. Speakers at M.E.K. rallies, in Paris and elsewhere, have reportedly been paid tens of thousands of dollars for their appearances.

The fiery comments from Giuliani and Gingrich follow recent talks between the new national-security adviser, John Bolton, and his European counterparts about the next steps in the U.S.’s foreign policy on Iran. On May 8th, Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and unilaterally restored sanctions on the country, in defiance of the deal’s five cosponsors—Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia. Bolton informed the Europeans that Washington intends to steadily escalate diplomatic pressure and impose additional economic sanctions on Iran throughout the summer and fall. The restored sanctions go into effect in two waves in August and November, and will also punish foreign companies and banks that continue to do business with Iran. The five other major powers have resisted U.S. pressure to join in. The Europeans came away from the talks with Bolton convinced that the Administration’s goal is to foster regime change, an outcome that Bolton had publicly endorsed as recently as January. (Bolton, who became the national-security adviser in March, had been a speaker at the annual N.C.R.I. meeting eights times, and was a keynote speaker last year.)

The Administration’s goal now is to cut off the Islamic Republic’s ability to export oil, its prime source of revenue and foreign exchange. The sanctions deadline is November 4th, which happens to coincide with the takeover, in 1979, of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. (Fifty-two American diplomats were held for fourteen months.) As part of its new strategy, the White House has quietly been lobbying Saudi Arabia to make up for any shortfall that could abruptly hike the global price of oil—up to ninety dollars a barrel, as some experts claim, a more than twelve per cent increase from the current price. Last year, Iran was the world’s sixth-largest oil exporter; it ranks fourth among the world’s proven oil reserves. OPEC countries could have difficultycompensating for the loss of Iranian exports.

On Saturday, President Trump appealed directly to King Salman. Afterward, he tweeted, “Just spoke to King Salman of Saudi Arabia and explained to him that, because of the turmoil & disfunction in Iran and Venezuela, I am asking that Saudi Arabia increase oil production, maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels, to make up the difference...Prices to (sic) high! He has agreed!” Since Trump took office, ties between Washington and Riyadh have deepened over their joint opposition to the revolutionary regime in Tehran. (...)

U.S. intelligence officials, citing newly obtained evidence, have concluded that North Korea does not intend to fully surrender its nuclear stockpile, and instead is considering ways to conceal the number of weapons it has and secret production facilities, according to U.S. officials.

The evidence, collected in the wake of the June 12 summit in Singapore, points to preparations to deceive the United States about the number of nuclear warheads in North Korea’s arsenal as well as the existence of undisclosed facilities used to make fissile material for nuclear bombs, the officials said.

The findings support a new, previously undisclosed Defense Intelligence Agency estimate that North Korea is unlikely to denuclearize.

The new intelligence, described by four officials who have seen it or received briefings, is based on material gathered in the weeks since the summit. The officials insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive assessments about a country that has long been one of the most difficult targets for spy agencies to penetrate. Some aspects of the U.S. intelligence were reported Friday by NBC News.

Specifically, the DIA has concluded that North Korean officials are exploring ways to deceive Washington about the number of nuclear warheads, and missiles and the types and numbers of facilities they have, believing that the United States is not aware of the full range of their activities.

Some U.S. intelligence officials have for at least a year believed that the number of warheads is about 65, as reported last year by The Washington Post. But North Korean officials are suggesting that they declare far fewer.

The lone uranium-enrichment facility that has been acknowledged by North Korea is in Yongbyon, 60 miles north of Pyongyang. That site is estimated to have produced fissile material for as many as a couple of dozen warheads.

Meanwhile, the North Koreans also have operated a secret underground uranium enrichment site known as Kangson, which was first reported in May by The Washington Post. That site is believed by most officials to have twice the enrichment capacity of Yongbyon. U.S. intelligence agencies became aware of the nuclear facility in 2010.

In recent years, the United States, through imagery and computer hacking, has improved its intelligence collection in North Korea. Officials in Pyongyang are seeking to obfuscate the true number of their weapons facilities, and U.S. intelligence officials believe that more than just one hidden site exists. The Post is withholding details at the request of intelligence officials.


...

While North Korea made a public show in June of demolishing the country’s main nuclear weapons test site, there has been little public evidence of efforts to dismantle scores of other sites linked to production of nuclear and chemical weapons and delivery systems.

Even if North Korea’s promises were sincere, it could take years of work, accompanied by an unprecedented agreement to grant access to outside inspectors, before U.S. officials could confidently say that the weapons threat has been neutralized.

As of now, there is little proof that North Korea intends to go down that road, longtime North Korea observers say.

HOW DONALD TRUMP AND ROY COHN’S RUTHLESS SYMBIOSIS CHANGED AMERICA

(...) Melendez, host of “The Stuttering John” podcast, was patched through to the Air Force One line through the White House switchboard, calling White House security into question, Axios reports. He reportedly got through “three different interactions with two White House operators” and “two call screens before Jared Kushner called him from Air Force One.” Kushner then told Melendez that the line would call him back, and that’s how he eventually got through to the president. White House staffers are reportedly “freaking out,” and are trying to figure out how the podcast host managed to get the ear of the president.