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Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » COVID-19 Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 143, 144, 145  Next
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R_P

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Posted: Sep 9, 2020 - 6:03pm

Crowds eschew masks at Trump rally as president mocks Biden over social distancing
Red_Dragon

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Posted: Sep 9, 2020 - 9:50am

NPR Poll: Financial Pain From Coronavirus Pandemic 'Much, Much Worse' Than Expected
Lazy8

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Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 9, 2020 - 9:40am

ScottFromWyoming wrote:

Yeah...not so much.

This delves into the methodology of the analysis, which was very, very sloppy. Another case of peer review by press release.

No, the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Didn't Spawn 250,000 Coronavirus Cases


According to South Dakota health officials, 124 new cases in the state—including one fatal case—were directly linked to the rally. Overall, COVID-19 cases linked to the Sturgis rally were reported in 11 states as of September 2, to a tune of at least 260 new cases, according to The Washington Post.There very well may be more cases that have been linked to the early August event, but so far, that's only 260 confirmed cases—about 0.1 percent of the number the IZA paper offers.

To get to the astronomical number of cases allegedly spread because of the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, the researchers analyzed "anonymized cellphone data to track the smartphone pings from non-residents and movement of those before and after the event," notes Newsweek. "The study then linked those who attended and traveled back to their home states, and compared changes in coronavirus trends after the rally's conclusion."

Essentially, the researchers assumed that new cases in areas where people went post-rally must have been spread by those rally attendees, despite there being no particular evidence that this was the case. The paper, which has not been peer-reviewed, also failed to account for simultaneous happenings—like schools in South Dakota reopening, among other things—that could have contributed to coronavirus spread in some of the studied areas.

The researchers also assumed a $46,000 treatment price for each person infected to calculate the $12.2 billion public health cost of the event—but this figure would only make sense if every person had a severe case requiring hospitalization.

The results of the IZA paper "do not align with what we know," South Dakota epidemiologist Joshua Clayton said at a Tuesday news briefing.

The IZA paper "isn't science; it's fiction," Gov. Kristi Noem (R) said.

It's also good election-time propaganda, apparently. Despite the dubious nature of the IZA study, a range of Democratic consultants and cheerleaders have been using it to condemn President Donald Trump

R_P

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Posted: Sep 9, 2020 - 9:38am

‘The 1918 flu is still with us’: The deadliest pandemic ever is still causing problems today
Ohmsen

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Location: Valhalla
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 8, 2020 - 3:45pm

Some 'crazy' food for thought; attention, satire ahead


haresfur

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Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 8, 2020 - 3:13pm



 sirdroseph wrote:

I have searched and have seen article after article stating that the protest have caused no surge in covid cases at all, but have found several articles stating like the one you just posted that this and other political rallies as well as parties are causing significant spikes.   Question is, are we dealing with a sentient politically active virus?  How does it know the difference between a protest and a rally or party?  This should be interesting scientist and the medical community greatly.   Quite an interesting phenomenon fit for a science fiction movie.  Fascinating stuff.
 
I only had a quick look at that paper and have to take their word for the validity of the method until other experts chime in. I read that both BLM and the Tulsa Trump rally were not major spreaders; possible explanations mainly have to do with social distancing, masks, and importantly, the community controls such as closing bars. So, no, it isn't about the politics although you might claim this proves both sides are the same.
Proclivities

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Location: Paris of the Piedmont
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 8, 2020 - 1:45pm



 sirdroseph wrote:

Thank you that is at least a reasonable response that seems plausible and grounded in science somewhat.  Though this does not offer an explanation on how they can be so sure that there were no surges caused by the protest.  How do they know that?  It really does not make any sense to anyone who is involved in rational thinking.
 
You can read about the methods of one "study"
.  They don't claim to "be so sure there were no surges caused by the protests" but it explains how they determined little change in transmission due to protests with dates and locations of protests and changes in transmission rates, etc...if one has the energy to read through it all.   Their data-gathering methods were far from perfect, but it's not as if they could wait years for results, and I don't especially agree with their conclusions but it is certainly not "irrational thinking" on their part.  

"...However, whether the Black Lives Matter protests actually caused a net increase in
population level spread of COVID-19 is an open question. While the protests themselves were
large gatherings that do not match well with social distancing guidelines, the protesting
population is not the only one that may have had a behavioral response. For example, other
individuals who did not wish to participate in the protests, perhaps due to fear of violence from
police clashes or general unrest, may have chosen to avoid public spaces while protests were
underway. This could have an offsetting effect, increasing social distancing behavior in other
parts of the population.
The net effect, on both social distancing and on the spread of COVID-19
is thus an empirical question, and the focus of this study.
Using anonymous cell phone tracking data from SafeGraph, Inc., as well as data on the
local prevalence of COVID-19 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we
demonstrate that cities which had protests saw a net increase in social distancing behavior for the
overall population relative to cities that did not..."

I don't recall anyone of any science or research background claiming that there was no transmission due to the protests, but by the same token, I'm not sure how they could positively trace spikes in transmission to things like rallies without knowing the names of the people. That original article also seems a little speculative to me as well.  Still, it's hard to make a very accurate study with data that is now new about a disease that is still a mystery in many ways.   Also, as BHD pointed out: indoor and outdoor gatherings, as well as the wearing of masks, could make a big difference.
BlueHeronDruid

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Location: planting flowers


Posted: Sep 8, 2020 - 12:39pm



 sirdroseph wrote:

I have searched and have seen article after article stating that the protest have caused no surge in covid cases at all, but have found several articles stating like the one you just posted that this and other political rallies as well as parties are causing significant spikes.   Question is, are we dealing with a sentient politically active virus?  How does it know the difference between a protest and a rally or party?  This should be interesting scientist and the medical community greatly.   Quite an interesting phenomenon fit for a science fiction movie.  Fascinating stuff.
 
Not defending the article (which I have some questions about too) but protests happen outdoors, with folks wearing masks because of tear gas. This rally took place in a helluva lotta bars and music venues, tightly packed. Apples and orange, methinks.

sirdroseph

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Location: Yes
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 8, 2020 - 11:53am

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 sirdroseph wrote:

I have searched and have seen article after article stating that the protest have caused no surge in covid cases at all, but have found several articles stating like the one you just posted that this and other political rallies as well as parties are causing significant spikes.   Question is, are we dealing with a sentient politically active virus?  How does it know the difference between a protest and a rally or party?  This should be interesting scientist and the medical community greatly.   Quite an interesting phenomenon fit for a science fiction movie.  Fascinating stuff.
 
I suspect that since Sturgis was scheduled about 50 years ago, it was possible to have observers in place to get less-anecdotal evidence.

 
Thank you that is at least a reasonable response that seems plausible and grounded in science somewhat.  Though this does not offer an explanation on how they can be so sure that there were no surges caused by the protest.  How do they know that?  It really does not make any sense to anyone who is involved in rational thinking.
ScottFromWyoming

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Location: Powell
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 8, 2020 - 11:32am



 sirdroseph wrote:

I have searched and have seen article after article stating that the protest have caused no surge in covid cases at all, but have found several articles stating like the one you just posted that this and other political rallies as well as parties are causing significant spikes.   Question is, are we dealing with a sentient politically active virus?  How does it know the difference between a protest and a rally or party?  This should be interesting scientist and the medical community greatly.   Quite an interesting phenomenon fit for a science fiction movie.  Fascinating stuff.
 
I suspect that since Sturgis was scheduled about 50 years ago, it was possible to have observers in place to get less-anecdotal evidence.

R_P

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Posted: Sep 8, 2020 - 10:44am

Why are authoritarian leaders who thrive on crises and who are fluent in the politics of fear reluctant to embrace the opportunity? Why do they seem to hate a crisis that they should love? The answer is straightforward: Authoritarians only enjoy those crises they have manufactured themselves. They need enemies to defeat, not problems to solve. The freedom authoritarian leaders cherish most is the freedom to choose which crises merit a response. It is this capacity that allows them to project an image of Godlike power.

In pre-Covid-19 Russia, Mr. Putin could “solve” one crisis by ginning up another. He reversed the decline of his popularity after the protest movement of 2011-12 by dramatically annexing Crimea. Mr. Trump could once claim that migrant caravans from Mexico are the greatest threat his country is facing, and disregard the civilizational threat of climate change. In the age of coronavirus, this is no longer possible.

There is just this one crisis, here and now: the pandemic. And governments are being judged by how they manage it. Authoritarian actors not only loathe crises they have not freely chosen, they also dislike “exceptional situations” that force them to respond with standardized rules and protocols rather than with ad hoc, discretionary moves. Mundane behaviors like physical distancing, self-isolation and handwashing are the best ways to halt the spread of the virus. A leader’s bold stroke of genius will be of no help. Following rules is not the same as obeying orders.

Even more threatening for authoritarian elites in the Covid-19 world is that they lack the key advantage all democratic leaders enjoy: The luxury to survive even when appearing weak. Imagine that Mr. Putin orders all Russian citizens to wear masks and half of the population elect not to. For a democratic leader, this would be an embarrassment; for an authoritarian it is a direct challenge to his power.

The ubiquity of the disease also poses challenges for authoritarians. Because the pandemic affects every country in the world, citizens can compare the actions of their governments with those of others. Success or failure at flattening the curve provides a common metric, making cross-national comparisons possible and putting pressure on governments that had previously succeeded in insulating themselves from public criticism.

sirdroseph

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Location: Yes
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 8, 2020 - 10:42am

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:
 
I have searched and have seen article after article stating that the protest have caused no surge in covid cases at all, but have found several articles stating like the one you just posted that this and other political rallies as well as parties are causing significant spikes.   Question is, are we dealing with a sentient politically active virus?  How does it know the difference between a protest and a rally or party?  This should be interesting scientist and the medical community greatly.   Quite an interesting phenomenon fit for a science fiction movie.  Fascinating stuff.
ScottFromWyoming

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Location: Powell
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 8, 2020 - 8:56am


R_P

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Posted: Sep 8, 2020 - 8:27am


black321

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Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 8, 2020 - 5:51am




What bats can teach us about developing immunity to Covid-19 | Free to read
Efforts to develop effective drugs or vaccines depend on understanding how the virus outwits the immune system

Viruses love bats. The flying nocturnal mammals make outstanding hosts because — just like people — they live in large, dense groups, their air travel spreads germs between populations and their longevity enables a virus to persist for years in an individual animal.

The big difference is that bats’ remarkable immune system tames and tolerates many viruses that cause havoc when they spread to humans, including the coronavirus responsible for Covid-19.

“We should look at what bats are doing to control the virus and emulate that in some way,” says Bernard Crespi, professor of evolutionary biology at Simon Fraser University in Canada, one of a growing group of scientists finding clues to the pandemic through bat immunology.

Immunology lies at the heart of scientific and medical investigation of Covid-19. Every effort to explain the extraordinarily varied course of the disease, to treat it with drugs and prevent it with vaccines, depends on understanding how the virus outwits the human immune system — or vice versa.


https://www.ft.com/content/743ce7a0-60eb-482d-b1f4-d4de11182fa9?segmentId=114a04fe-353d-37db-f705-204c9a0a157b

R_P

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Posted: Sep 7, 2020 - 1:07pm

French 'anti-maskers' most likely to be educated women in 50s, says study
Results show 94% of Covid sceptics would refuse vaccine and most describe themselves as free-thinkers
Bristielle said four main objections to masks emerged from the respondents: that they are useless in preventing Covid-19 contamination; that they are dangerous because they cause breathing difficulties and are a “hive of bacteria”; that the epidemic is over or never existed and the governments have lied to the people; and that masks are being used to subjugate the people.

“While these four arguments methodically clash with the body of scientific facts,” the study says, “they nevertheless already say a great deal about the profile of the individuals who argue them: distrust of institutions, refusal of constraints, belief in conspiracy theories.”

Above all, those who reject the enforced wearing of masks consider themselves free thinkers and 87% said society works better when people are responsible for their own lives, and 95% declared the government meddles too much in their daily existence.

Asked a series of questions about popular conspiracy theories, 90% of anti-maskers said the health ministry was in league with ”big pharma” to hide the poisonous effect of vaccines, 52% thought Princess Diana, who died in a car crash in Paris in 1997, had been assassinated, 56% signed up to the far-right conspiracy “replacement” theory and 57% believed there was a worldwide Zionist plot.

R_P

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020 - 3:35pm

We’re on our own
The failure of U.S. government scientists in the Trump administration to follow the science around COVID-19 has left the medical community to fend for itself.
From lobsters to honey bees, social distancing is common in the animal kingdom
BlueHeronDruid

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Location: planting flowers


Posted: Sep 4, 2020 - 3:13pm



 cc_rider wrote:


 R_P wrote:

 I saw that earlier, but didn't  post it. Horrific.

Seeing all the reports of people gathering and ignoring basic precautions, it really makes me wonder how we're going to get through this. Without half a million people dying, I mean.

Here in Texas, where high school football is practically a religion, many small-town games last weekend had virtually no masks or distancing. In communities where a proper hospital can be a hour's drive or more. Crazy.
c.


 
Our county (and the one north of us) have only smallish, rural hospitals. And health officials are really freaking out about this weekend.

Should be fun in a couple of weeks.

R_P

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020 - 3:06pm

 cc_rider wrote:
 R_P wrote:

 I saw that earlier, but didn't  post it. Horrific.

Seeing all the reports of people gathering and ignoring basic precautions, it really makes me wonder how we're going to get through this. Without half a million people dying, I mean.

Here in Texas, where high school football is practically a religion, many small-town games last weekend had virtually no masks or distancing. In communities where a proper hospital can be a hour's drive or more. Crazy.
c.

It could get higher still...
Additionally, the IHME says that should a "herd immunity strategy" be pursued, and "no further government intervention is taken from now to January," the COVID-19 death toll could increase to 620,000. This comes after The Washington Post reported that a pandemic adviser was recommending that the White House adopt a strategy of letting COVID-19 spread through most of the population. The adviser subsequently denied having recommended such a policy, and the White House said "there is no discussion about changing our strategy."

miamizsun

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Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 4, 2020 - 2:49pm

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