The new tally includes not only deaths known to have been directly caused by the coronavirus, but also roughly 100,000 fatalities that are indirectly related and would not have occurred if not for the virus.
The study, published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is an attempt to measure âexcess deathsâ â deaths from all causes that statistically exceed those normally occurring in a certain time period. The total included deaths from Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, that were misclassified or missed altogether.
Many experts believe this measure tracks the pandemicâs impact more accurately than official Covid-19 death reports do, and they warn that the death toll may continue an inexorable climb if policies are not put in effect to contain the spread.
âThis is one of several studies, and the bottom line is there are far more Americans dying from the pandemic than the news reports would suggest,â said Dr. Steve Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University, whose own research recently reached similar conclusions about excess deaths.
âWeâre likely to reach well over 400,000 excess deaths by the end of the yearâ if current trends continue, Dr. Woolf said.
The United States and China dealt with the spread of the devastating coronavirus pandemic in vastly different ways, and that split is reshaping the global battle between the worldâs two leading economies.
About 11 months after the Wuhan outbreak, Chinaâs official GDP numbers this week show not only that the economy is growing, up 4.9 percent for the third quarter from a year earlier, but also that the Chinese are confident enough the virus has been vanquished to go shopping, dine and spend with gusto.
Chinaâs total reported death toll is below 5,000 and new infections are negligible, the result of draconian lockdowns, millions of tests, and strict contact tracing that set the stage for an economic rebound.
âChinaâs success in containing the virus has allowed its economy to rebound more quickly, and with relatively less policy support, as compared with other large economies,â said former senior U.S. Treasury official Stephanie Segal, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
In the United States, 221,000 people are dead from COVID-19 after a delayed federal response, partisan battles over mask-wearing and lockdowns, and plenty of public events that do not follow public health guidelines. The country is in the midst of a new wave of infections.
âObviously the U.S. government bungled it,â said Harry Broadman, a former senior U.S. trade official and managing director with Berkeley Research Group. The singular authority of Chinaâs Communist Party helped Beijing enforce contact tracing and lockdowns, Broadman said. Other democracies, including New Zealand and South Korea, stamped out the virus as China did. (...)
Contributing to the United States' high death toll has been an unusually high mortality rate - more people as a percentage of the population dying of COVID-19 than in other countries with huge outbreaks.
A separate study, also published in JAMA, wanted to find out if that was because the US had an "early surge of cases prior to improvements in prevention and patient management" or simply had a "poor long-term response".
The University of Pennsylvania researchers found even after the early peak, the US' mortality rate from COVID-19 has remained higher than other OECD countries with outbreaks, such as Italy.
All hail Mammon!
Thanks R_P. Interesting piece. Pasted bit:
The study found an increase in deaths from dementia and heart disease that followed the same pattern as deaths from the coronavirus. All-cause mortality increased as the virus' second wave began in the US, which the data showed followed early reopenings - lives saved in reduced car accidents, for example, were vastly outnumbered.
Are health outcomes the driver behind high US mortality rates? All rich western countries have been affected by obesity, sitting epidemic. The US is the only country where middle aged white men have experienced a decrease in life expectancy.
Suicides, overdoses, heart attacks or other issues where people either can't get or delay medical attention. If you want to blame COVID for someone drinking too much and dying, or overdosing out of boredom and/or loniliness, then maybe the deaths are under-counted....but it's a slippery slope and will result in an overstatement of the danger from contracting the virus.
Testing and morbidity comparisons need to be considered carefully. An increase in the testing should lead to lower morbidity rates for COVID, but it wouldn't impact the excess mortality calculations.
Let me be clear. I am not looking for "blame". This is an exercise in improved tea-leaf reading in an attempt to arrive at a better understanding.
The virus will cause direct and indirect effects. Some of the more indirect social effects such as increased substance abuse, increased domestic violence, reduced exercise levels and as a result declines in overall health outcomes do not strike me as a major concern in regards to simply understanding the information that is being generated.
There appears to be a significant increase in daily C-19 cases while C-19 deaths are staying relatively low.
This could be simply the result of medical professionals acquiring through 'learning by doing' more knowledge that allows them to take better care of C-19 patients.
The excess mortality numbers are estimated by calculating trailing averages so it might take a few years for them to revert to the mean.
The political and economic implications of this discussion could be interesting. One possibility is that many voting Americans might overestimate the C-19 deaths due to the Trump administration's management of the pandemic.
New cases are soaring in Canada but so far Canadian political leaders are not being blamed for Canada's second wave. That may be due to Canadian political leaders standing strongly behind public health professionals.
anecdotal... my kids in college have seen more cases, but most are no worse than the sniffles....compared to last spring when more kids were getting very sick.
Suicides, overdoses, heart attacks or other issues where people either can't get or delay medical attention. If you want to blame COVID for someone drinking too much and dying, or overdosing out of boredom and/or loniliness, then maybe the deaths are under-counted....but it's a slippery slope and will result in an overstatement of the danger from contracting the virus.
Testing and morbidity comparisons need to be considered carefully. An increase in the testing should lead to lower morbidity rates for COVID, but it wouldn't impact the excess mortality calculations.
Let me be clear. I am not looking for "blame". This is an exercise in improved tea-leaf reading in an attempt to arrive at a better understanding.
The virus will cause direct and indirect effects. Some of the more indirect social effects such as increased substance abuse, increased domestic violence, reduced exercise levels and as a result declines in overall health outcomes do not strike me as a major concern in regards to simply understanding the information that is being generated.
There appears to be a significant increase in daily C-19 cases while C-19 deaths are staying relatively low.
This could be simply the result of medical professionals acquiring through 'learning by doing' more knowledge that allows them to take better care of C-19 patients.
The excess mortality numbers are estimated by calculating trailing averages so it might take a few years for them to revert to the mean.
The political and economic implications of this discussion could be interesting. One possibility is that many voting Americans might overestimate the C-19 deaths due to the Trump administration's management of the pandemic.
New cases are soaring in Canada but so far Canadian political leaders are not being blamed for Canada's second wave. That may be due to Canadian political leaders standing strongly behind public health professionals.
The excess mortality information suggests that COVID-19 caused deaths are being under counted.
Now as many countries experience a second wave of similar surge in C-19 virus cases, how much of that is actually due to an increase in the number of cases and how much is due to 'better measurement' that is available through more testing?
One way of viewing the increase in cases is that it is actually a good thing; it is simply an indicator of the health system better managing the pandemic.
Contributing to the United States' high death toll has been an unusually high mortality rate - more people as a percentage of the population dying of COVID-19 than in other countries with huge outbreaks.
A separate study, also published in JAMA, wanted to find out if that was because the US had an "early surge of cases prior to improvements in prevention and patient management" or simply had a "poor long-term response".
The University of Pennsylvania researchers found even after the early peak, the US' mortality rate from COVID-19 has remained higher than other OECD countries with outbreaks, such as Italy.
could be great news for airlines, events...production possible for mid-21, which seems to imply this virus is going to be around for awhile.
I suspect that COVID-19 will always be around and become yet another malady that we will have to manage ala various flus, HIV, chicken pox, etc. Vaccines and cures may be developed but the virus itself ain't going anywhere.
The excess mortality information suggests that COVID-19 caused deaths are being under counted.
Now as many countries experience a second wave of similar surge in C-19 virus cases, how much of that is actually due to an increase in the number of cases and how much is due to 'better measurement' that is available through more testing?
One way of viewing the increase in cases is that it is actually a good thing; it is simply an indicator of the health system better managing the pandemic.
Not necessarily. It depends on how you determine "cause"
It's possible COVID is under-reported, but there is always a bit of chicken and egg in determining whether it was specifically COVID or something else. The under-reporting based on excess mortaility suggests a significant increase in deaths caused indirectly by the pandemic.
Suicides, overdoses, heart attacks or other issues where people
either can't get or delay medical attention. If you want to blame COVID
for someone drinking too much and dying, or overdosing out of boredom
and/or loniliness, then maybe the deaths are under-counted....but it's a
slippery slope and will result in an overstatement of the danger from contracting the virus.
Testing and morbidity comparisons need to be considered carefully. An increase in the testing should lead to lower morbidity rates for COVID, but it wouldn't impact the excess mortality calculations.
The excess mortality information suggests that COVID-19 caused deaths are being under counted.
Now as many countries experience a second wave of similar surge in C-19 virus cases, how much of that is actually due to an increase in the number of cases and how much is due to 'better measurement' that is available through more testing?
One way of viewing the increase in cases is that it is actually a good thing; it is simply an indicator of the health system better managing the pandemic.
........ You're drawing direct correlations that are pure theory. That list of people is connected to the President or one of his "projects"
Missing from that list are any Fortune class or large Pharma....those on the list have nothing to do with the trillions Trump is handing out in search of a miracle.
My theoretical....the majority of people on that list support Trump in the hopes of keeping tax rates down while the US government prints money and generates trillions in debt. They keep their money, and everyone else pays the tab later. COVID has nothing to do with the math. To Scott's point, if it was your money, would you wear a mask for an extra 6 months if you could save $3-$5 Trillion on vaccines many won't take anyway while waiting to see how others do?
Pure theory? Not sure I understand. In order to be taxed, you have to make money. If demand for US products and services both domestically and externally plummets and stays depressed for longer, it is and will be a lot harder to make money.
But if your suggesting that rich Americans with special interests are backing Trump, that I understand. That makes sense. I can readily imagine big Pharma supporting Trump's exceptional views on health.
Here is an example of odd behaviour. Folks in the oil & gas industry who support Trump. What do they want? More supply and tighter margins? Below risk-adjusted market rates of return to capital?
No restrictions on natural gas flaring so oil production can sky rocket up and depress prices? Strikes me as myopic and self-loathing.
I generally agree with you, and I'm honestly not trying to pick a fight or belabor the point, but the idea that "it's gonna spread regardless" is misleading. Yes, it will continue to spread because we need to interact, get food, go to work. What is known at this point is that masks and distance reduce the spread, and what is also known is that about 1/3rd of the country has decided to follow the advice of a politician over medicine. In the states where the politician is popular, the spread is higher. Where the medical community is followed, things are generally better (not good...but better).
As for gleaning from the chart you posted, all of Scott's observations are personal knowledge. The only thing the chart tells you is where people have died. It is no better than a list of numbers, where visualizations that show multiple attributes (like political party and time with normalized populations) greatly enhance the reader's ability to "see" what's happening with the virus.
I didn't introduce politics into the discussion, our leadership did. I don't think it's unreasonable to assess performance and identify what's working and what's not, I think it's the best way for all of us to stay safe.
i know that so no worries
it's a message board and this is like a form of therapy for me
So everyone's going to get it and 5% will have serious symptoms, that's 16 million Americans. Maybe it's not the herd culler some people have been rooting for but I think it's worth having a leader encourage everyone to do the free things: masks, handwashing, and maybe lay low for a bit, as opposed to what he actually did, which maybe didn't directly lead to the first 3trillion in alms for corporations but it will sure be the reason for the next 2 trillion.
Curious. How are donations from corporations to the Trump campaign doing? American corporations have a vested interest in the US controlling the novel corona virus earlier than later. At least according to the way despicable pinheads such as economists view this crisis.
Trump and his supporters have clearly sabotaged early economic recovery. Yet corporate donors continue to contribute (see below).
So what is going on here? Are many controlling owners of American corporations 'exceptional' in the same way that many of us on the outside view most American voters as 'exceptional'? Can one a) become rich or b) hold on to wealth by being righteous and anti-scientific? How does this message of "Be patriotic, die for your president, die for your country." resonate with rich Americans? Top Donors to Trump 2020 Campaign The latest list of PACs and individuals who have donated to them.
You're drawing direct correlations that are pure theory. That list of people is connected to the President or one of his "projects"
Missing from that list are any Fortune class or large Pharma....those on the list have nothing to do with the trillions Trump is handing out in search of a miracle.
My theoretical....the majority of people on that list support Trump in the hopes of keeping tax rates down while the US government prints money and generates trillions in debt. They keep their money, and everyone else pays the tab later. COVID has nothing to do with the math. To Scott's point, if it was your money, would you wear a mask for an extra 6 months if you could save $3-$5 Trillion on vaccines many won't take anyway while waiting to see how others do?
So everyone's going to get it and 5% will have serious symptoms, that's 16 million Americans. Maybe it's not the herd culler some people have been rooting for but I think it's worth having a leader encourage everyone to do the free things: masks, handwashing, and maybe lay low for a bit, as opposed to what he actually did, which maybe didn't directly lead to the first 3trillion in alms for corporations but it will sure be the reason for the next 2 trillion.
Curious. How are donations from corporations to the Trump campaign doing? American corporations have a vested interest in the US controlling the novel corona virus earlier than later. At least according to the way despicable pinheads such as economists view this crisis.
Trump and his supporters have clearly sabotaged early economic recovery. Yet corporate donors continue to contribute (see below).
So what is going on here? Are many controlling owners of American corporations 'exceptional' in the same way that many of us on the outside view most American voters as 'exceptional'? Can one a) become rich or b) hold on to wealth by being righteous and anti-scientific? How does this message of "Be patriotic, die for your president, die for your country." resonate with rich Americans? Top Donors to Trump 2020 Campaign The latest list of PACs and individuals who have donated to them.
i'm certain that these numbers will change as we learn more
will we ever know with any accuracy? doubt it, but hopefully we'll get close
So everyone's going to get it and 5% will have serious symptoms, that's 16 million Americans. Maybe it's not the herd culler some people have been rooting for but I think it's worth having a leader encourage everyone to do the free things: masks, handwashing, and maybe lay low for a bit, as opposed to what he actually did, which maybe didn't directly lead to the first 3trillion in alms for corporations but it will sure be the reason for the next 2 trillion.
i'm not familiar with anyone rooting for herd culling
but yeah, people shouldn't emulate trump
if he or any other politician tells you what time it is you should still check your watch
=
also, i don't know how in the hell our leaders can't separate financial stimulus to individuals from all the special interests holding this up
if you're going to do it, and i'm pretty sure that they are, just get it done
