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Lyrics that strike a chord today... - Antigone - Aug 2, 2020 - 2:46pm
 
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songs that ROCK! - Ohmsen - Aug 2, 2020 - 11:41am
 
Little Feat tour - Ohmsen - Aug 2, 2020 - 9:51am
 
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Google Home - apsteinmetz - Jul 30, 2020 - 12:55pm
 
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Quick! I need a chicken... - miamizsun - Jul 30, 2020 - 9:35am
 
Regarding cats - sirdroseph - Jul 30, 2020 - 6:04am
 
Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » COVID-19 Page: Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 107, 108, 109 ... 134, 135, 136  Next
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kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: drifting
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 9:15pm

 BillG wrote:
Long, but worthy:

The Hammer and the Dance
.
 
Indeed.

It reinforces my understanding and already formed conclusions about this situation we face.  I've been living the immuno system dance for the past 11 years now as both a patient, caregiver and a health care provider.  I no longer get seasonal flu shots.  I got the mac daddy old person shot 2 seasons ago and it almost killed me.  I had all of the adverse reactions including fever over 102 for a couple of days.  My oncologist told me I needed it.  My GP told me that it almost killed me and to never get it again.  I will go through the rest of my life without a net.  I must rely upon paying attention to my surroundings and paying close attention to what my body is trying to tell me.  The same as everyone else.

Without a doubt, the Hammer is the answer, at least here in the USA with our borders closed until further notice.  Testing will be the key to our recovery.  Just in this afternoon's briefing it was announced that we should have a test available within one week, the end of this month, that will have results within 45 minutes.  The sooner we can identify the infected and recovered, the sooner we can get back to normal.  We will know who is now immune and safe to be in the general public without putting other's at risk.

We must put this into perspective.  The piece that sird posted earlier is also the same understanding I have of this virus and thanks for the most informative and accurate post. In just two short months, we have gone from Houston, we have a problem to a 45 minute test for a brand new unknown pathogen.  That is pretty effing amazing in my understanding of medicine, technology and manufacturing.  But no one seems satisfied with the pace of improvements and developments.  Really ?

This is the modern equivalent of our moon shot in the 60's when in a few short years we declared that we would put a man on the moon before the turn of the next decade, using blackboards, chalk, slide rules and simple pencil and paper.  And we did.  This is the same country.  We are doing something equally as dramatic and impossible right now.  Perspective is everything.  But at the same time, most people alive never were around the last time we had a man on the moon and have no understanding of something so huge and complex, yet simple with today's technology, even though we haven't figured out how to get back to the moon in all of this time since.

But that seems to be the expectations of this impatient instant gratification social mass we live in today.  Yo, we did it 50 years ago.  The technology is ancient and sitting on the shelf.  Get a man back on the moon by next Tuesday or you have failed us.  With a mentality such as this, I am not optimistic about the hammer succeeding here.  Throw in the added dimension of our coming election and a faction of people dedicated to opposing the success of and defeating the person they must support in order to save us all.  I only say that as an observation and nothing more, but it must be said.

Lastly, with so much emphasis on the ICU capacity problem, a little bit about how we got there with that in the USA.  miamiz has touched on this often.  It is the individual states (over 30) who determine and regulate how many beds for what purpose and what hospital are allowed.  And what kind of equipment is also allowed including the number of ventilators. It is the governors of these states who make these decisions.  It is these rules that have put the constraints on the system that we must now deal with and overcome.  And it is Congress who decides how many doctors we are allowed to have.  This is the system that has been in place since the 1950's.  If you have been watching NY Gov Cuomo's daily briefings, you will hear him repeatedly reference these restrictions and how he is waiving them in order to increase capacity.  He just did this waiver within the past couple of days.  By so doing this he has now enabled FEMA to come into NY with their fully staffed self contained 250 bed hospitals.  He is getting at least 4 of these hospitals adding 1000 fully staffed beds.  They will be placed in the Javitts Convention Center on Manhattan Island.  He has been most informative, calming and reassuring in his daily briefings.  I believe that California is getting 8 and Washington State is getting 4.  Things are moving and fast.  The staggering amount of institutional crap, redtape and other problems is being overcome.  To remove in days what took decades to install is impressive all by itself.  Yet people still call this foot dragging.

To see the movement of the two hospitals ships characterized on these boards as trivial, empty and too late is really astonishing.  What ?  Have you already given up ?  You think the shit has already hit the fan ?  No, not even close.  Yet you object to getting things properly placed and staged for what is yet to come.  Every little bit helps.  Anyone remember the Butterfly Effect ?  Have faith in something for the sake of whatever your higher power is.

I mentioned earlier that we still have the potential for this to all seem like just a bad dream after a few months of Hell.  I still believe that to be true.  I see the solutions unfolding ahead of us in unparalleled rapid fire order.  But it will only be true if we put down our differences and work together in the same direction.  That is how we got a man on the moon in short order. 

Let's do it again.
.
{#Meditate}

.
And .......  we have done all of this without declaring Martial Law ....
KarmaKarma

KarmaKarma Avatar



Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 7:46pm



 islander wrote:

End times. Or maybe we all got raptured?  Frankly, if that's it I'm disappointed. 
 

Is this what The Rapture looks like?  If so, I want a refund.
KarmaKarma

KarmaKarma Avatar



Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 7:44pm



 haresfur wrote:


 KarmaKarma wrote:
Meanwhile, the adults crunch the numbers and arrive at some very interesting info.


Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

More from that author:
https://twitter.com/aginnt

Why this article is BS - by a researcher in biology information

 btw, medium took the article down
 

Yes.  My apologies.  The article was promptly shredded by an appropriate expert - CT_Bergstrom.

Disregard it as some jagoff's need to spew his massive mind into the Internet.
KarmaKarma

KarmaKarma Avatar



Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 7:42pm



 sirdroseph wrote:
Saw this, nice encapsulation:

 

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.


Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs even "mild" cases.

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.



 

FYI / PSA / pick a size of grain of salt:



"Update: good news, found the author.
Bad news: a nurse, not an immunologist.
Kymberli Dawn Barker
🧐🧐🧐 Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this...
https://www.facebook.com/Sailb...

Much of the info is basic immunology, which is why it appears to make some sense. But, this synopsis may not be completely on target for CV. Please treat as theory, not fact. 😶
Note that I found the source (see end of thread), a nurse and not an immunologist. 😶"



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1240433470750498816.html

islander

islander Avatar

Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 7:20pm

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


 brianlj wrote:

 

Holy smokes! It's like going to a reunion or a funeral around here lately! :wave:
 
End times. Or maybe we all got raptured?  Frankly, if that's it I'm disappointed. 
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 6:20pm

Dr. Fauci Reports That Alcohol May Help People Survive Coronavirus Briefings
ScottFromWyoming

ScottFromWyoming Avatar

Location: Powell
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 3:24pm



 brianlj wrote:



 

Holy smokes! It's like going to a reunion or a funeral around here lately! :wave:
brianlj

brianlj Avatar

Location: Cambridge, UK
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 12:29pm



 BillG wrote:
Long, but worthy:

The Hammer and the Dance
.
 

Just finished it. A VERY good article.
BillG

BillG Avatar

Location: Left Coast
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 12:23pm

Long, but worthy:

The Hammer and the Dance
.
Lazy8

Lazy8 Avatar

Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 12:21pm

NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

That's paywalled, but I am familiar with the Imperial College report that got heavily criticised.

The way I see it, the big issue is keeping the crisis within the parameters of what the various health systems can deal with. Draconian social distancing measures seem to have worked in Wuhan and noticeably Hong Kong and Singapore also exhibit much lower curves than other countries.

This by all accounts is the only way to go at the moment, or our systems are going to get totally overwhelmed.

However, Wuhan gives me cause for optimism that, with enough rigour, the number of cases can be kept to a manageable level. In this scenario, when the health system is still in a position to cope, I think you could start a program of controlled infections in the sections of the population that are at very low risk, i.e. age <54 and no pre-exisitng conditions.

Admittedly, this won't be enough to create full herd immunity, but it must surely help the overall health of the population and lower transmission rates further down the track, which is after all what this is all about.

Are you feeling lucky?

Not just in the outcome for your case (or the cases of low-risk groups), but that the epidemic will follow a predictable path?

If you are it should be straightforward to go infect yourself, to take one for the team as you intend. An improvised DIY vaccination program isn't an insanely indefensible position. If the epidemic remains predictable and you can genuinely maintain quarantine so you don't infect your neighbors it's a noble thought.

As you acknowledge low risk is not no risk, and some of these intentional infections will end up making matters worse rather than better. Every sick person (symptomatic or not) is a vector.

I'm not going to automatically condemn this thinking. If a small, well-contained group of healthy people acted like this they could be a real resource in the outbreak. But it's a big dice-roll.
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 11:40am

U.K. to tell 1.5 million people with serious health problems to self-quarantine for next 12 weeks
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 10:13am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
That's paywalled...
 
Archived version
.
sirdroseph

sirdroseph Avatar

Location: Yes
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 5:03am

Saw this, nice encapsulation:

 

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.


Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs even "mild" cases.

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.

NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 1:45am

 R_P wrote:
 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
(H)erd immunity is only going to come with sufficient exposure in the population.. this might take time.. but it will come by itself, no matter what we do.

(...)

What I am talking about is developing some kind of herd immunity after the first wave has passed but before the second (or even third) wave hits.
 
It's gonna be a mighty big (first) wave that overwhelms and that makes your projection pointless (at least in the near term). See different models of "control" to get through now. Larger exposure = larger problems. Still a massive strain.

And then scale it from one country to how various countries are going to be affected in turn at an earlier or later stage.

 
That's paywalled, but I am familiar with the Imperial College report that got heavily criticised.  

The way I see it, the big issue is keeping the crisis within the parameters of what the various health systems can deal with. Draconian social distancing measures seem to have worked in Wuhan and noticeably Hong Kong and Singapore also exhibit much lower curves than other countries. 

This by all accounts is the only way to go at the moment, or our systems are going to get totally overwhelmed.

However, Wuhan gives me cause for optimism that, with enough rigour, the number of cases can be kept to a manageable level.  In this scenario, when the health system is still in a position to cope, I think you could start a program of controlled infections in the sections of the population that are at very low risk, i.e. age <54 and no pre-exisitng conditions.

Admittedly, this won't be enough to create full herd immunity, but it must surely help the overall health of the population and lower transmission rates further down the track, which is after all what this is all about.
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 12:51am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
(H)erd immunity is only going to come with sufficient exposure in the population.. this might take time.. but it will come by itself, no matter what we do.

(...)

What I am talking about is developing some kind of herd immunity after the first wave has passed but before the second (or even third) wave hits.
 
It's gonna be a mighty big (first) wave that overwhelms and that makes your projection pointless (at least in the near term). See different models of "control" to get through now. Larger exposure = larger problems. Still a massive strain.

And then scale it from one country to how various countries are going to be affected in turn at an earlier or later stage.

NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 22, 2020 - 12:41am

I don't think either of you (RP and Kurtster) have understood me properly. 

@  Richard.. sure herd immunity is complicated. you need a high number of the population to have been exposed to the virus and survived. Normally this comes from either exposure or a vaccine. But there is no vaccine for the coronavirus. Sure, one might be developed but the virus is developing swiftly and there is no guarantee that a new vaccine will work in time anyway.. ergo.. herd immunity is only going to come with sufficient exposure in the population.. this might take time.. but it will come by itself, no matter what we do. 
@ Kurt.. 
Lock down is absolutely the right strategy at the moment to avoid the available resources being overstretched. I do not dispute that, and have been in self-isolation for three weeks already and have enough stores to keep that going for another six weeks at least. That is not the issue.

What I am talking about is developing some kind of herd immunity after the first wave has passed but before the second (or even third) wave hits. Look at the numbers:
This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years.
This means that from the statistics we have at the moment (which are still evolving as the virus spreads) there is a less than 1% chance of everyone under the age of 54 years dying from it. Now there are couple of things to consider here: That number does not consider the individuals with preconditions in that age group. If you eliminate them from the statistical population that <1% chance of fatality will drop dramatically. Secondly, it is widely acknowledged that the current statistical population only consists of known and confirmed corona cases. It doesn't include all those who got it, had mild symptoms and got over it without being tested. Some sources say that the statistical population could be out by an entire order of magnitude. 

So if you consider these two factors, you could get the risk of a fatality from a controlled population down to (at a rough guess)  0.01% or even lower. That is 1 in 10000 or possibly even lower. This is the sort of risk level that many people accept in daily life anyway (driving, paragliding, surfing, chatting on political forums) etc, 

Think of the benefits and think of the alternatives.

Doing this program will not overstretch resources if you do it when the first wave of the pandemic has passed. At 1 in 10000 fatalities, you are talking of 100 in a population of a million (and, to allow for those who get seriously ill, multiply that number by 10 and you need 1000 hospital beds for 1 million people.. rotate that every 3 to 4 weeks and you could actually get a sizeable portion of the population with some basic resistance over a matter of months (and I expect we don't have much time between the first and second wave). Moreover, you can do it in a  controlled, secure manner to avoid spreading the disease. (This is basically what we are all learning to do anyway during the lock-down)
100 in a million dying might sound dire, but it is a hell of a lot better than the current prospect.  Once herd immunity is in place, societies will be in a much better place to handle any outbreak

The alternative to developing herd immunity is being in permanent lock-down until a vaccine is developed with a massive strain on health resources with very little control of how things develop.
haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 21, 2020 - 11:35pm



 KarmaKarma wrote:
Meanwhile, the adults crunch the numbers and arrive at some very interesting info.


Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

More from that author:
https://twitter.com/aginnt

Why this article is BS - by a researcher in biology information

 btw, medium took the article down
kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Mar 21, 2020 - 9:49pm



 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

sorry .. haven't convinced me.. given that we are all very likely to get it sooner or later (it is after all very contagious) .. the chance of fit and able-bodied people needing intensive care is definitely not zero, I agree, but the more people in the population who gain some kind of resistance (immunity I have heard, is not on the cards) benefits everyone. 

I readily admit, this needs to be managed, which is almost certainly not going to be an option anymore as the existing resources are going to be overstretched whatever method (suppression or postponement) are applied. And there will be a number of sub-60 year old non-risk people who die.. but the sad fact is, they probably will anyway.  I know this sounds callous, but for me personally, I would take the risk. It is after all very likely to come anyway. I am not playing hero. Just facing it as it is.

and self-isolation is anyway the standard. That doesn't change.
 
 
" the chance of fit and able-bodied people needing intensive care is definitely not zero, I agree,"



I'd be surprised if the variations of virulence of infection for a group of people can be uniformly predicted. You're going to have healthy and fit people become seriously ill and die and weaker people show no symptoms. That paradoxical variation may not be understood for a long time. IIRC the Spanish Flu of 1918 disproportionately killed healthy people because their immune systems responded more vigorously and somehow made the virus deadlier. 

It's better to wait until a vaccine is developed that will safely immunize the vast majority of people. 
R_P

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Posted: Mar 21, 2020 - 6:42pm

New blood tests for antibodies could show true scale of coronavirus pandemic
KarmaKarma

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Posted: Mar 21, 2020 - 4:31pm

Meanwhile, the adults crunch the numbers and arrive at some very interesting info.


Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

More from that author:
https://twitter.com/aginnt
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