The Russian economy has suffered. Wealth has suffered. The Russian economy will likely suffer for years, possibly decades to come.
As an aside, please do note that not all Russians wanted this war. Think of the subcultures in the USA and other rich western countries that have opposed war or the nuclear arms race and one finds the same subcultures in Russia.
The important point from the perspective of the welfare of Europeans and North Americans is that Russia can economically last for a very long time. That has to be part of the strategic calculation on the part of US-lead NATO going forward. Any illusions of a quick, inexpensive military victory in Ukraine should be dismissed or assigned an extremely low probability of materializing.
This conflict could easily escalate with conventional weapons alone into highly destructive and risky directions.
Yeah, well Putin seems to long for the days of the cold war. Last one took around 40 years. That's his choice until someone figures out how to get rid of him, provided someone as bad doesn't take his place. Putin could fix this easily but he won't.
Obama ignored Russian aggression in Crimea and that just lead to aggression in the rest of Ukraine. The alternatives appear to be either Russia takes over Ukraine and probably the rest of Eastern Europe or support Ukrainian self-determination, even if it means digging in for the long haul. Yeah, it is dangerous but so are the other options.
The Russian economy has suffered. Wealth has suffered. The Russian economy will likely suffer for years, possibly decades to come.
As an aside, please do note that not all Russians wanted this war. Think of the subcultures in the USA and other rich western countries that have opposed war or the nuclear arms race and one finds the same subcultures in Russia.
The important point from the perspective of the welfare of Europeans and North Americans is that Russia can economically last for a very long time. That has to be part of the strategic calculation on the part of US-lead NATO going forward. Any illusions of a quick, inexpensive military victory in Ukraine should be dismissed or assigned an extremely low probability of materializing.
This conflict could easily escalate with conventional weapons alone into highly destructive and risky directions.
Surprise, dumping massive amounts of currency into the military sector raises GDP—hence the durable fallacy that wars are good for the economy.
An awful lot of Russians who should be doing productive work are either dodging shrapnel in Ukraine or already casualties, and the work they should be doing is going undone. But GDP counts their military pay and the expenditures for weapons and fuel and boots, even if the soldiers they're being bought for never get them because they were stolen by a corrupt procurement apparatus or blown up on the way.
So GDP looks great! Money is being spent! The fact that it is buying nothing of any earthly use matters not at all to that tabulation. Russia is becoming poorer by the minute, squandering its future to run in place, but the number look great.
The EU economy is getting hammered. But the USA is not that far behind in terms of heading into recession (if not already there).
Well done President Biden. Chalk up another victory for US Exceptionalism. Please continue to target a military victory in Ukraine and let's see where the chips fall.
Comment from Matt Maley at Miller Tabak sums it (current and recent past economy) up:
âIf we had tried maintain what we had a year ago, it would have been like getting drunkâ¦and then trying to stay drunkâ¦to avoid a hangover. What the Fed is trying to do is to keep a bad hangover from becoming a horrendous oneâ¦but theyâre also trying to make sure we donât get drunk againâ¦â¦â¦.Itâs a very tough job,â
And all it has in the medicine cabinet is more alcohol. But this time is different!
Comment from Matt Maley at Miller Tabak sums it (current and recent past economy) up:
âIf we had tried maintain what we had a year ago, it would have been like getting drunkâ¦and then trying to stay drunkâ¦to avoid a hangover. What the Fed is trying to do is to keep a bad hangover from becoming a horrendous oneâ¦but theyâre also trying to make sure we donât get drunk againâ¦â¦â¦.Itâs a very tough job,â
Last Friday (October 7), the 82-year old French writer Annie Ernaux won the Nobel Prize in Literature, for what the panel described as an âuncompromisingâ 50-year body of work exploring âa life marked by great disparities regarding gender, language and classâ. A feminist and politically committed writer, Ernaux is the first French woman to win the award.
âFor 50 years, Annie Ernaux has written the novel of the collective and intimate memory of our country. Her voice is the voice of
the freedom of women and forgotten figures of the centuryâ.
Ernaux herself responded to the news by describing writing as a political act, a means of opening our eyes to social inequality. To that end, she uses language like âa knifeâ, to tear apart the veils of imagination. The next day (October 8), she turned that knife on Macron. (...)
isn't there something delightfully ironic about our in-house communist wailing about government intervention and making a desperate plea for a return to a free market?
Sorry, even with an open market, a return to business as usual ain't going happen. Russia breached trust. That's not something you can easily repair.
You are such a high priest of elevated morality.
And your understanding of economics and international relations is pretty damn weak.
What is interesting here in Germany is the pattern of dissension. You get a number of academics and Russian apologists still punching above their weight in public discussion and keep plugging the Kremlin's line, like this plonker. But the real hands-on business people know exactly what the situation is. The loss of Russian and Ukrainian markets has been factored into budgets for the coming year. The more pressing issue is supply chain issues which are hard to predict.
The actual cost of energy OTOH is something you can factor into your pricing. Some succeed better than others. The key point though is that all of these distortions are temporary until the market settles back into place with new parameters. Russia has basically cooked its goose.
Oil & gas dependency on Russia is never going to happen again.
has "tankie" which was originally a tease or mocking pejorative now morphed and crystalized into a badge of honor?
is it being embraced by intellectual western keyboard warriors? apparently so
surely he has reached out to putin and demanded that he cease fire, go home and make reparations to ukraine, no?
will this prompt the world to expedite its transition off of fossil fuels and onto greener sources?
what happens after putin?
will the next person in line reject violence/war for peaceful leadership?
acknowledge human rights and voluntary makets?
i would say yes
isn't there something delightfully ironic about our in-house communist wailing about government intervention and making a desperate plea for a return to a free market?
Sorry, even with an open market, a return to business as usual ain't going happen. Russia breached trust. That's not something you can easily repair.
um, I think you are missing the point. Nobody wants to do business with Russia until they get their shit sorted. It's got nothing to do with whether they are allowed to do business with Russia.
And if you think the sanctions aren't working, then what's your beef?
um, I think you are missing the point. Nobody wants to do business with Russia until they get their shit sorted. It's got nothing to do with whether they are allowed to do business with Russia.
And if you think the sanctions aren't working, then what's your beef?
pfft. we've seen worse. And the lesson? Don't do any business with Russia.
Keep going, Black Knight...
To some extent, the crisis is a blowback from European sanctions that were intended to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. The pain has undermined confidence at European companies and their ability to plan.
What is interesting here in Germany is the pattern of dissension. You get a number of academics and Russian apologists still punching above their weight in public discussion and keep plugging the Kremlin's line, like this plonker. But the real hands-on business people know exactly what the situation is. The loss of Russian and Ukrainian markets has been factored into budgets for the coming year. The more pressing issue is supply chain issues which are hard to predict.
The actual cost of energy OTOH is something you can factor into your pricing. Some succeed better than others. The key point though is that all of these distortions are temporary until the market settles back into place with new parameters. Russia has basically cooked its goose.
Oil & gas dependency on Russia is never going to happen again.
And the lesson? Don't do any business with Russia.
Keep going, Black Knight...
To some extent, the crisis is a blowback from European sanctions that were intended to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. The pain has undermined confidence at European companies and their ability to plan. (...)
Eschenbach Porcelain survived Germanyâs transition from communism to capitalism after 1989. But when its energy contracts run out at the end of this year, the company will face annual energy bills of 5.5 million euros, or roughly six times what it is paying now, said Rolf Frowein, its director.â
That would mean we have to more than double our prices, and nobody will pay that for our cups and plates,â he said. Eschenbach, a 130-year-old company in the eastern state of Thuringia, is in talks with local politicians about a potential solution. It is one of dozens of small and midsize firms in Germany fearing they will have to close for good.
Makers of metal, paper, fertilizer and other products that depend on gas and electricity to transform raw materials into products from car doors to cardboard boxes have announced belt-tightening. Half of Europe’s aluminum and zinc production has been taken offline, according to Eurometaux, Europe’s metals trade association.
Among them is Arcelor Mittal, Europe’s largest steel maker, which is idling blast furnaces in Germany. Alcoa, a global aluminum products producer, is cutting a third of production at its smelter in Norway. In the Netherlands, Nyrstar, the world’s biggest zinc producer, is pausing output until further notice.
Even toilet paper is not immune: In Germany, Hakle, one of the largest manufacturers, announced that it had tumbled into insolvency because of a “historic energy crisis.”
pfft. we've seen worse.
And the lesson? Don't do any business with Russia.
Makers of metal, paper, fertilizer and other products that depend on gas and electricity to transform raw materials into products from car doors to cardboard boxes have announced belt-tightening. Half of Europeâs aluminum and zinc production has been taken offline, according to Eurometaux, Europeâs metals trade association.
Among them is Arcelor Mittal, Europeâs largest steel maker, which is idling blast furnaces in Germany. Alcoa, a global aluminum products producer, is cutting a third of production at its smelter in Norway. In the Netherlands, Nyrstar, the worldâs biggest zinc producer, is pausing output until further notice.
Even toilet paper is not immune: In Germany, Hakle, one of the largest manufacturers, announced that it had tumbled into insolvency because of a âhistoric energy crisis.â
