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• • • The Once-a-Day • • •  - oldviolin - Sep 15, 2021 - 10:11am
 
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Baseball, anyone? - ScottFromWyoming - Sep 14, 2021 - 10:06am
 
TV shows you watch - Ohmsen - Sep 14, 2021 - 9:32am
 
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Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » COVID-19 Page: 1, 2, 3 ... 273, 274, 275  Next
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R_P

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Posted: Sep 18, 2021 - 11:24am

They Shunned Covid Vaccines but Embraced Antibody Treatment
Championed by doctors and conservative radio hosts alike, monoclonal antibodies for Covid are in high demand — even from those who don’t want a vaccine.
Lanson Jones did not think that the coronavirus would come for him. An avid tennis player in Houston who had not caught so much as a cold during the pandemic, he had refused a vaccine because he worried that it would spoil his streak of good health.

But contracting Covid shattered his faith in his body’s defenses — so much so that Mr. Jones, nose clogged and appetite vanished, began hunting for anything to spare himself a nightmarish illness.

The answer turned out to be monoclonal antibodies, a year-old, laboratory-created drug no less experimental than the vaccine. In a glass-walled enclosure at Houston Methodist Hospital this month, Mr. Jones, 65, became one of more than a million patients, including Donald J. Trump and Joe Rogan, to receive an antibody infusion as the virus has battered the United States.

Vaccine-resistant Americans are turning to the treatment with a zeal that has, at times, mystified their doctors, chasing down lengthy infusions after rejecting vaccines that cost one-hundredth as much. Orders have exploded so quickly this summer — to 168,000 doses per week in late August, up from 27,000 in July — that the Biden administration warned states this week of a dwindling national supply.

The federal government, which was already covering the cost of the treatment — currently about $2,100 per dose — has now taken over its distribution as well. For the coming weeks, the government has told states to expect scaled-back shipments because of the looming shortages.

With seven Southern states accounting for 70 percent of orders, the new process has unsettled some of their governors, who have made the antibody treatment central to their strategy for enduring a catastrophic wave of the Delta variant.

More supplies are on the way. The federal government bought 1.8 million more doses this week, expected to arrive in the fall and winter. But for now, some hospitals are uncertain of supplies, state health officials said, even as patients keep searching for doses. (...)

Doctors have warned that antibody treatments alone cannot keep pace with ballooning outbreaks. Whereas any one vaccination protects untold others from exposure, a single infusion only helps a single patient. Infusions must be given within 10 days of symptoms; they are unhelpful to most hospitalized patients. And receiving the antibodies once does not keep people from becoming seriously ill if they catch the virus again later.

“Something like that just doesn’t scale,” said Dr. Howard Huang, the medical leader for Houston Methodist’s infusion program.

As a result, health officials have warned that vaccine skeptics may become so enamored of monoclonal antibodies that they become even more resistant to getting a protective shot.

rhahl

rhahl Avatar



Posted: Sep 18, 2021 - 10:17am

 rhahl wrote:
I am vaccinated, if that was directed at me personally, but in any case it appears that the vaccinated still get covid and still pass it around. They just don't get as sick or die in such great numbers. So.....vaccination alone is not going to do it. I think the Biden plan is to make 250,000 covid deaths per year seem normal - thanks to the unvaccinated - but in reality thanks to mingling without masks.
 
This was my comment on July 8, 2021. It now appears that the Biden administration's "miscalculation" was in overshooting the acceptable death rate by about 100% (470,000 per year at the moment), and who knows how high that will go.
westslope

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Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Sep 18, 2021 - 10:10am

 kurtster wrote:


Again, the question is why is the

death rate among the unvaccinated


higher now than before vaccinations began ?

That is the information that Scott presented. Or did I misinterpret it ?

..........

Later.


Good question.  I believe your interpretation is correct.  After a quick glance, Scott's numbers look fine.  

The answer is already in the thread.   For one, the masking and social distancing requirements were eliminated too early.   For another, the newer strains appear to be more contagious.  It is a virus after all.   Insufficient ICU space and overwhelmed hospital staff will also contribute.

Please note that the SARS2 viruses are not unionized.   The concept of 'overtime' does not apply.   There are no  days off, no paid vacation, no coffee breaks.

There is probably a more technical explanation that relies on a better understanding the evolving R coefficient (reproduction coefficient).   Recall that the R rate was a super scary 1.92 in Ohio not so long ago.

Also note that this virus is not kind to people in poor health.   Both health outcomes and anti-vaccination attitudes appear to be negatively correlated with socio-economic status.  

——————————————————————————————————————————

I keep looking at the new case/morbidity data in several jurisdictions with a view to gauging the impact on near-term economic growth, in particular investment which is the greatest driver of near term economic output.

Out of the window observation:   North American jurisdictions with 80% or greater vaccination rates are doing better than those with 70% or less vaccination rates.   The lower vaccination rate may be correlated with anti-masking and anti-social distancing views.  

Stand back and think about this.

Even in jurisdictions where folks 'play well together', roughly 1/5 of the population has yet to be vaccinated.   (!)   Look, I am not a virologist but do remember some of the stylized facts about vaccination rates for other diseases, which were generally much closer to 100%.  Full disclosure:  I am alive today thanks to vaccines and western medical technology.

So this is what my dried caribou shoulder blades are telling me:    a small percentage of the population will continue to get sick and many will die.   The rest of the population will make the economy and a more normal life work through vaccine passports as well as masks and social distancing in specific circumstances.

If the 'demonstration effect' is actually working on those who have so far refused to take this pandemic seriously (or simply misunderstand the mathematics of vaccines), we will see total vaccination rates go towards or past 90%.  



steeler

steeler Avatar

Location: Perched on the precipice of the cauldron of truth


Posted: Sep 18, 2021 - 9:54am

 rhahl wrote:
 
I think the fatal mistake came in May 2021, when the CDC said that vaccinated people could take off their masks and start acting more normal. I knew at the time the delta strain was coming and that this was reckless advice because the vaccines are non-sterilizing - clearly worse policy than when Trump told people to go to church on Easter Sunday in 2020, as the average weekly death rate curves show.

In terms of increasing death rates, I believe the miscalculation was that the percentage of vaccination of eligible adults could be 70 percent by July 4. I also believe the extent vaccinated folk could be infected and transmit the virus to others was not fully understood at that point.
I disagree that these miscalculations were worse than Trump’s policy of downplaying the severity of the virus — and especially his not only discouraging the wearing of masks, but mocking those who did so. We will never know the full extent of the damage that has caused.

rhahl

rhahl Avatar



Posted: Sep 18, 2021 - 8:16am

 steeler wrote:
 rhahl wrote:
I didn't see anything wrong with your numbers other than that they were beside my point, which was that the U.S. Covid situation is the worst in the world and getting worster every day, since everybody else's numbers are decreasing or flat while ours are rising exponentially.
 
Democrats can and will argue all the way to election day that it was not their fault the delta strain fooled them. They will still look like fools. And Republicans will say: See, Democrats in power don't care about people any more than we do, so why vote for them? That will energize the R base and depress the D turnout.  Trump only lost by 42,000 votes in three states, and Biden's Covid performance is making Trump look good.

What do you think the Biden administration has failed to do regarding COVID-19 response that would have made a difference?
 
 
I think the fatal mistake came in May 2021, when the CDC said that vaccinated people could take off their masks and start acting more normal. I knew at the time the delta strain was coming and that this was reckless advice because the vaccines are non-sterilizing - clearly worse policy than when Trump told people to go to church on Easter Sunday in 2020, as the average weekly death rate curves show.
ScottN

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Location: Half inch above the K/T boundary
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 18, 2021 - 7:33am

 rhahl wrote:
 
 
I didn't see anything wrong with your numbers other than that they were beside my point, which was that the U.S. Covid situation is the worst in the world and getting worster every day, since everybody else's numbers are decreasing or flat while ours are rising exponentially.
 
Democrats can and will argue all the way to election day that it was not their fault the delta strain fooled them. They will still look like fools. And Republicans will say: See, Democrats in power don't care about people any more than we do, so why vote for them? That will energize the R base and depress the D turnout.  Trump only lost by 42,000 votes in three states, and Biden's Covid performance is making Trump look good.

What?
That is so many ways an incorrect statement. Had Trump, instead of politicizing the issue, simply said in early 2020 something like..."let's let the CDC and NIH drive our policy" we would likely be in a much different condition today. Think how effective vaccination would be had it not become this "tribal issue". Biden has done a very commendable job in dealing with the pandemic, imo.

steeler

steeler Avatar

Location: Perched on the precipice of the cauldron of truth


Posted: Sep 18, 2021 - 7:27am

 rhahl wrote:
 
 
I didn't see anything wrong with your numbers other than that they were beside my point, which was that the U.S. Covid situation is the worst in the world and getting worster every day, since everybody else's numbers are decreasing or flat while ours are rising exponentially.
 
Democrats can and will argue all the way to election day that it was not their fault the delta strain fooled them. They will still look like fools. And Republicans will say: See, Democrats in power don't care about people any more than we do, so why vote for them? That will energize the R base and depress the D turnout.  Trump only lost by 42,000 votes in three states, and Biden's Covid performance is making Trump look good.

What do you think the Biden administration has failed to do regarding COVID-19 response that would have made a difference?


rhahl

rhahl Avatar



Posted: Sep 18, 2021 - 7:17am

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:
Hey there was more in my post and I wrote it all for you so go read it for Christ’s sake. Don’t just come say the same damn thing that made me write it in the first place.
 
I didn't see anything wrong with your numbers other than that they were beside my point, which was that the U.S. Covid situation is the worst in the world and getting worster every day, since everybody else's numbers are decreasing or flat while ours are rising exponentially.
 
Democrats can and will argue all the way to election day that it was not their fault the delta strain fooled them. They will still look like fools. And Republicans will say: See, Democrats in power don't care about people any more than we do, so why vote for them? That will energize the R base and depress the D turnout.  Trump only lost by 42,000 votes in three states, and Biden's Covid performance is making Trump look good.
R_P

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Posted: Sep 18, 2021 - 12:27am

 Manbird wrote:
Also, I'll bet the newer, more deadly strain becoming the predominant virus has something to do with it, too, as well.

Yes.

Manbird

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Location: Owl Creek Bridge
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 18, 2021 - 12:25am

 R_P wrote:

There's now more COVID to go around (with some asymptomatic vaccinated people) and it has had time to get to more places. A surge is a surge is a surge (see quotes). Vaccinated people are less likely to die (which was the whole point). A fair amount of people have been vaccinated. Before vaccinations began all deaths were among the unvaccinated.


The current rate looks slower than the initial outbreak and similar to the winter rate. At no point do the charts reach zero.


Also, I'll bet the newer, more deadly strain becoming the predominant virus has something to do with it, too, as well.
R_P

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Posted: Sep 17, 2021 - 9:58pm

 kurtster wrote:
Again, the question is why is the death rate higher among the unvaccinated now then before vaccinations began.

There's now more COVID to go around (with some asymptomatic vaccinated people) and it has had time to get to more places. A surge is a surge is a surge (see quotes). Vaccinated people are less likely to die (which was the whole point). A fair amount of people have been vaccinated. Before vaccinations began all deaths were among the unvaccinated.


The current rate looks slower than the initial outbreak and similar to the winter rate. At no point do the charts reach zero.
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 17, 2021 - 9:51pm

 R_P wrote:
 kurtster wrote:

Miss.  That pertains to why you might get infected.  Not why you are going to die from it.

More sick = more dying. Esp. when unvaccinated.

The surge has multiple propellants. The delta variant, which transmits more easily between people, is one.

Delta, originally detected in India and first diagnosed in the United States in March, rapidly replaced other variants to become dominant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates delta is responsible for more than 8 in 10 new cases.

Another major contributor, epidemiologists said: Relaxing precautions, such as no longer wearing masks or engaging in social distancing. That probably includes behavior even among the vaccinated, Columbia University epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman said.

Shaman suspects cases among vaccinated people, known as breakthrough infections, are much higher than official tallies indicate. That could be because vaccinated people are less likely to get tested. Or they may be apt to dismiss a mild case of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, as simply the sniffles. “The central issue is that people want to put the pandemic and the virus behind them,” he said, offering as examples unmasked crowds packed into bars and ballparks.
 
Again, the question is why is the

death rate among the unvaccinated

higher now than before vaccinations began ?

That is the information that Scott presented.  Or did I misinterpret it ?

I do not know how I can make the question any simpler.  Perhaps I only think that I am typing in English.

I guess that I really am the stupidest person here since no one understands anything I say anymore. 

Later.
R_P

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Posted: Sep 17, 2021 - 9:40pm

 kurtster wrote:

Miss.  That pertains to why you might get infected.  Not why you are going to die from it.

More sick = more dying. Esp. when unvaccinated.

The surge has multiple propellants. The delta variant, which transmits more easily between people, is one.

Delta, originally detected in India and first diagnosed in the United States in March, rapidly replaced other variants to become dominant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates delta is responsible for more than 8 in 10 new cases.

Another major contributor, epidemiologists said: Relaxing precautions, such as no longer wearing masks or engaging in social distancing. That probably includes behavior even among the vaccinated, Columbia University epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman said.

Shaman suspects cases among vaccinated people, known as breakthrough infections, are much higher than official tallies indicate. That could be because vaccinated people are less likely to get tested. Or they may be apt to dismiss a mild case of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, as simply the sniffles.

“The central issue is that people want to put the pandemic and the virus behind them,” he said, offering as examples unmasked crowds packed into bars and ballparks.
Some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous variants in unvaccinated people.
In two different studies from Canada and Scotland, patients infected with the Delta variant were more likely to be hospitalized than patients infected with Alpha or the original virus that causes COVID-19. Even so, the vast majority of hospitalization and death caused by COVID-19 are in unvaccinated people.

kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 17, 2021 - 9:31pm

 R_P wrote:
 kurtster wrote:
That the death rate of the unvaccinated has basically doubled over that time is profound. Why is that ? What has changed that much ? Something sure as hell has. Either you get infected or you don't when talking purely about the unvaccinated. What has caused this change is the real relevant question, to me anyway.

Fewer lockdowns. More gatherings. Possibly fewer precautions (like masks) for some...
 
Miss.  That pertains to why you might get infected.  Not why you are going to die from it.
R_P

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Posted: Sep 17, 2021 - 9:22pm

 kurtster wrote:
That the death rate of the unvaccinated has basically doubled over that time is profound. Why is that ? What has changed that much ? Something sure as hell has. Either you get infected or you don't when talking purely about the unvaccinated. What has caused this change is the real relevant question, to me anyway.

Fewer lockdowns. More gatherings. Possibly fewer precautions (like masks) for some...
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 17, 2021 - 8:26pm

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:


Who's dying?

Let's do some quick math (smart people shudder at the thought of Scott doing math, but oh well). At the peak of the pandemic, we were losing over 4000 souls a day, pre-vaccination, so
4000x365=1,460,000 annually out of 330 million =1 in 226 of us would die at that rate
But there are around 75 million children who were, at that time, not dying of covid and not eligible for vaccines anyway. So that's 255 million vax eligible people meaning the covid was killing 1 in 175 of us annually at that rate.

Pre-vaccine covid killed us at an annual rate of 1 in 175 (ballpark) at the winter peak of the pandemic

Current daily death rate 1870x365=682,550 dying in a year at the current rate. BUT about 70million are unvaccinated adults. 1 in 20 of the deaths are vaccinated (ballpark number from memory, probably fewer), so 95% of 682,550=648,420, 5%=34,100 roughly

330 total population 75 kids, 70 unvax leaves 185million vaccinated 

Post vaccine covid is killing at an annual rate of 1 in 108 among the unvaccinated and an annual rate of 1 in 5,425 among the vaccinated. (today's numbers as shown in this graph)

Corrections to my calculations welcome.

 
ScottFromWyoming wrote:

Hey there was more in my post and I wrote it all for you so go read it for Christ’s sake. Don’t just come say the same damn thing that made me write it in the first place. 
 
Ok.  Well pre vaccine, the virus was much different for starters, far less contagious than the current mutations.  Also you (and no one else for that matter) make no considerations for those who have been infected and survived among the unvaccinated in your numbers.  One could also dispute just exactly how many deaths are due solely to covid.  That has been an issue from day one. That could significantly change the pre and post vaccine rates.  Also you eliminated children in the pre vax numbers  Your numbers also presume a static unchanging death rate.

I cannot get past the NYT paywall so here is a link to the google search with a chart that reflects the daily death rate
 R_P wrote:
 
As you can see above rates vary by location as well.

With all that is above, my summary assuming that your numbers are correct is that there is something drastically different going on since the pre vax days and now.  That the death rate of the unvaccinated has basically doubled over that time is profound.  Why is that ?  What has changed that much ?  Something sure as hell has.  Either you get infected or you don't when talking purely about the unvaccinated.  What has caused this change is the real relevant question, to me anyway.

ScottFromWyoming

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Location: Powell
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 17, 2021 - 7:10pm

 rhahl wrote:
 ScottFromWyoming wrote:
 rhahl wrote:
This graph represents a death rate of about 650,000/yr and climbing. If you think our vaccine-only plan is going to turn this around, I have some carbon offset credits to sell you.
 
I can see Democrats loosing 60 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate.

Who's dying?
 
Americans. Worst in the world right now. The vaccine-only plan was a bust. We might even get Trump back.
 
Hey there was more in my post and I wrote it all for you so go read it for Christ’s sake. Don’t just come say the same damn thing that made me write it in the first place. 
haresfur

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Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 17, 2021 - 10:36am

 black321 wrote:



The official policy here is more or less to start opening up at 70-80% fully vaccinated. I say more or less because there is a lot of disagreement on the details and whether it depends on the number of cases in the wild. Right now the country as a whole is at 45% fully vaccinated and 70% one dose for age 16 and over, but there are big differences between states. And the indigenous population is lagging.
R_P

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Posted: Sep 17, 2021 - 10:35am

 rhahl wrote:
(...) We might even get Trump back.

By 2024 most Republicans will have gone extinct from COVID due to the emergence of the MAGA variant in early 2023 in Florida.
rhahl

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Posted: Sep 17, 2021 - 10:25am

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:
 rhahl wrote:
This graph represents a death rate of about 650,000/yr and climbing. If you think our vaccine-only plan is going to turn this around, I have some carbon offset credits to sell you.
 
I can see Democrats loosing 60 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate.

Who's dying?
 
Americans. Worst in the world right now. The vaccine-only plan was a bust. We might even get Trump back.
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