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Index » Regional/Local » USA/Canada » It's the economy stupid. Page: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next
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kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 13, 2024 - 11:22am

 islander wrote:
The electric companies did this for a different reason. Their resource is finite and the demand was exceeding their ability to meet it. When the demand is too high, they were forced to drop people. This caused all kinds of issues as they are a regulated monopoly. The primary driver in instituting these measures was not profit... well not profit from the charges, but profit from keeping their system running without faults.
 
Yeah, remember Gray Out Davis ? ...
R_P

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Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 13, 2024 - 10:15am

"The price of freedom."
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 12, 2024 - 9:10am

 islander wrote:


The electric companies did this for a different reason. Their resource is finite and the demand was exceeding their ability to meet it. When the demand is too high, they were forced to drop people. This caused all kinds of issues as they are a regulated monopoly. The primary driver in instituting these measures was not profit... well not profit from the charges, but profit from keeping their system running without faults.


Right
islander

islander Avatar

Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 12, 2024 - 8:26am

 black321 wrote:


Well...it is s-t supply and demand shifts, which obviously can divert to gouging.
The electric cos have been doing it for decades, and theyre monopolies, ha!


The electric companies did this for a different reason. Their resource is finite and the demand was exceeding their ability to meet it. When the demand is too high, they were forced to drop people. This caused all kinds of issues as they are a regulated monopoly. The primary driver in instituting these measures was not profit... well not profit from the charges, but profit from keeping their system running without faults.
Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar

Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Mar 12, 2024 - 7:34am

 black321 wrote:


Well...it is s-t supply and demand shifts, which obviously can divert to gouging.
The electric cos have been doing it for decades, and theyre monopolies, ha!


yup
GeneP59

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Location: On the edge of tomorrow looking back at yesterday.
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 12, 2024 - 7:08am

 Red_Dragon wrote:
You want it. You need it. We got it. So bend over and take it.

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 12, 2024 - 6:46am

 Red_Dragon wrote:

Well...it is s-t supply and demand shifts, which obviously can divert to gouging.
The electric cos have been doing it for decades, and theyre monopolies, ha!
Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar

Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Mar 11, 2024 - 5:38pm

This used to be called "price gouging".
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Feb 6, 2024 - 7:45am


After Jamie Dimon warns of market ‘rebellion’ against $34 trillion national debt, Fed’s Jerome Powell says it’s past time for an ‘adult conversation’ about unsustainable fiscal policy

With the United States’ national debt closing in on $34.2 trillion, some of the biggest figures in the world of finance have been speaking out. But few expected Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to address the issue—at least until this weekend, when Powell spoke out about the debt on CBS’s 60 Minutes Sunday. “In the long run, the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path,” Powell warned.

Even as the U.S. economy avoided a widely forecast recession in 2023, record government spending and lower tax receipts led the national debt to surge to an all-time high. And that trend has continued into this year. The U.S. government debt to GDP ratio, a measure of total public debt to economic growth, has surged from just over 100% in 2019 to over 120%. That’s down from the COVID-era peak of 133%, but, as Powell put it, the government’s debt is still “growing faster than the economy.”

This means it’s now “past time, to get back to an adult conversation among elected officials about getting the federal government back on a sustainable fiscal path,” Powell argued Sunday.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news...

Steve

Steve Avatar

Location: Around My Corner... and Up Yours
Gender: Male


Posted: Feb 1, 2024 - 9:31am

Washington-Level Accounting Fraud

NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 9:38am

 black321 wrote:

More level playing field? Yes.
Redistribution? No, other than a higher estate tax. You're entitled to your bounty while here, but once you pass, put most of capital back in the pool.
And a no on loan forgiveness. Though the interest rates on student loans are a crime.

It does suggest people should live within their means. This is a reflection of poor personal financial management...a failure of our parents and education system.



ok, I realize trying to realise everyone's personal economic goals is like trying to square a circle, so I'm going to down tools for the day, but it does sound a bit like you are punishing the ones dealt the worst hand with that last sentence. 

I always thought redistributing wealth to the poor was a great way to get the multiplier effect to kick in as the poor generally purchase domestic goods, spend what they have immediately and in the process you can keep them out of destitution avoiding all the cost to society that entails.  /my 2c.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 9:30am

ok, that was interesting. That little exchange led me down a rabbit hole comparing national debt levels using the IMF database.

Go New Zealand!!  



black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 9:30am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

This suggests that you would support some kind of wealth distribution in favour of the bottom half. Maybe we have more in common than I thought.
what about student loan debt relief? What's your position on that?


More level playing field? Yes.
Redistribution? No, other than a higher estate tax. You're entitled to your bounty while here, but once you pass, put most of capital back in the pool.
And a no on loan forgiveness. Though the interest rates on student loans are a crime.

It does suggest people should live within their means. This is a reflection of poor personal financial management...a failure of our parents and education system.

NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 9:09am

 black321 wrote:

The aggregate shows growing levels of debt and depleted savings...which is being born by the bottom half of the income earners. 
The upper half are still strong, boosted by higher returns on their fixed income investments and a rising stock market.  
Rich get richer, poor have children.


This suggests that you would support some kind of wealth distribution in favour of the bottom half. Maybe we have more in common than I thought.
what about student loan debt relief? What's your position on that?

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 8:55am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:


ok, I'll do the work for you (yes I'm feeling snarky today, apologies in advance). 
1. my OECD data put the average public debt to GDP at 210%. So 217% is not that much higher than the long-term average.  
2. Yes, you are right on credit card debt reaching 1 trillion.
3. However, credit card debt only accounts for 5.8% of total household debt using Q2 2023 figures 
4. You would think that if excessive debt has been issued, there would be higher defaults on credit card debt, but this is not the case:
  "Delinquency rates were roughly flat in the second quarter of 2023 and remained low, after declining sharply since the beginning of the pandemic." (from the above source).
.  Admittedly, this might change rapidly in a recession.
5. You are right on public debt. I would be a little unsettled at 130% of GDP too. The U.S. is on the wrong end of the chart on this one. 

ok, that was my 10 minutes of public service for the day.

I suspect that if Biden is re-elected the Democrats will rein in public spending to get the public debt down again as they frequently do in their second term.





Total household debt has only held steady in recent periods because very few are assuming new mortgages - home sales are at historical lows. That and they locked in the low mortgage rates is the good news.
Non-household debt is surging because of CC, student loans, and auto loans grew, while the savings rate has plummeted. 
https://www.newyorkfed.org/mic...
The average CC holdings is somewhere between $6000-$8000 according to sources like Bankrate, and about 30% of holders carry a balance. These are the lower income consumers. 
And delinquency rates are rising and now back above pre-pan levels,

The aggregate shows growing levels of debt and depleted savings...which is being born by the bottom half of the income earners. 
The upper half are still strong, boosted by higher returns on their fixed income investments and a rising stock market.  
Rich get richer, poor have children.

Further, I'm specifically speaking of household debt, which excludes business debt.

That's my 2 mins of public service... as for your last assumption...we havent had a surplus since Clinton...so debt will continue to grow. Best you might hope for is that the GDP grows at a faster pace than the deficit. 



NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 8:44am

PS. Public debt to GDP was comparably high during Trump's tenure compared to 2022.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 8:37am

 black321 wrote:


So your data shows a rising trend - 165% in 1995, which was already high, to 218 in 2022, 53 pts higher...and that data is compromised by the pandemic (it likely jumped again in 2023)
Credit card debt passed $1t in 3Q, and by most estimates continued to grow in 4Q, while rates are above 20%. 
At the same time, the pandemic savings surplus has been squandered on pickle ball racquets and tshirts...with the savings rate now around 4%, compared to 5% to 6% historical.

No offense but, one doesn't need to look that hard to see the U.S. and most of the western world has a debt problem and is living beyond its means. This is especially apparent for the low to middle-income consumer, who in the US has been in a recession since 2022.

And then there is the public debt, which grew by over 50% since the pandemic to over $30T. 


ok, I'll do the work for you (yes I'm feeling snarky today, apologies in advance). 
1. my OECD data put the average public debt to GDP at 210%. So 217% is not that much higher than the long-term average.  
2. Yes, you are right on credit card debt reaching 1 trillion.
3. However, credit card debt only accounts for 5.8% of total household debt using Q2 2023 figures 
4. You would think that if excessive debt has been issued, there would be higher defaults on credit card debt, but this is not the case:
  "Delinquency rates were roughly flat in the second quarter of 2023 and remained low, after declining sharply since the beginning of the pandemic." (from the above source).
.  Admittedly, this might change rapidly in a recession.
5. You are right on public debt. I would be a little unsettled at 130% of GDP too. The U.S. is on the wrong end of the chart on this one. 

ok, that was my 10 minutes of public service for the day.

I suspect that if Biden is re-elected the Democrats will rein in public spending to get the public debt down again as they frequently do in their second term.



black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 8:12am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

"Private Debt to GDP in the United States decreased to 217.80 percent in 2022 from 223.30 percent in 2021. Private Debt to GDP in the United States averaged 210.46 percent from 1995 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 235.30 percent in 2020 and a record low of 165.10 percent in 1995." source: OECD.


if you have figures for 2023, please post them.


So your data shows a rising trend - 165% in 1995, which was already high, to 218 in 2022, 53 pts higher...and that data is compromised by the pandemic (it likely jumped again in 2023)
Credit card debt passed $1t in 3Q, and by most estimates continued to grow in 4Q, while rates are above 20%. 
At the same time, the pandemic savings surplus has been squandered on pickle ball racquets and tshirts...with the savings rate now around 4%, compared to 5% to 6% historical.

No offense but, one doesn't need to look that hard to see the U.S. and most of the western world has a debt problem and is living beyond its means. This is especially apparent for the low to middle-income consumer, who in the US has been in a recession since 2022.

And then there is the public debt, which grew by over 50% since the pandemic to over $30T. 
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 7:55am

 black321 wrote:


Much of which was supported by record credit card spending...while rates are above 20%
As long as we ignore the unsustainable debt, everything is fine

"Private Debt to GDP in the United States decreased to 217.80 percent in 2022 from 223.30 percent in 2021. Private Debt to GDP in the United States averaged 210.46 percent from 1995 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 235.30 percent in 2020 and a record low of 165.10 percent in 1995." source: OECD.


if you have figures for 2023, please post them.
Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar

Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Jan 31, 2024 - 7:54am

 black321 wrote:


Much of which was supported by record credit card spending...while rates are above 20%
As long as we ignore the unsustainable debt, everything is fine


It's the American Way!
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