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kcar

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Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 2:14pm

 steeler wrote:

There is some truth to that, but the degree is different here, as is the scope.  Yes, lofty, general promises are made on the campaign trail that do not come to anything close to full fruition — e.g., I am going to change the culture in Washington; I will work across the aisle and bring unity; I will be completely transparent; I will spur the economy, bring jobs; etc.  And there have been specific promises that were voiced, and not realized, for whatever reasons — e.g., I will close Guantanamo..  Here, though, we had a candidate and now have a President-elect who is prone to say things for which his supporters say he  should not be held accountable for even saying, much less failing to do.   This has been Trump's political stock in trade:  Obama should produce his birth certificate to prove he was not born in Kenya; Ted Cruz's father may have been involved with Oswald in the assassination of JFK; Cruz is not eligible to be President  because born in Canada; Mexico will pay for the wall; I will prosecute Hillary as soon as I take office.     

 
Thank you. Exactly right. 

Just read Paul Krugman's piece on Trump's repeal of the ACA , and wow is it scary. Krugman's points out that the GOP replacement of the ACA doesn't really exist yet and will take months to take even the barest shape. Yet Trump promised in his last press conference to have that replacement enacted almost immediately after the repeal of the ACA.

Trump lies all the time to almost everyone—including himself. 

From a transcript of Trump's press conference:

You’re gonna be very, very proud, as not only the media and reporters, you’re gonna be very proud of what we put forth having to do with health care. Obamacare is a complete and total disaster.

...

So the easiest thing would be to let it implode in ’17 and believe me, we’d get pretty much whatever we wanted, but it would take a long time. We’re going to be submitting, as soon as our secretary’s approved, almost simultaneously, shortly thereafter, a plan.

It’ll be repeal and replace. It will be essentially, simultaneously. It will be various segments, you understand, but will most likely be on the same day or the same week, but probably, the same day, could be the same hour.



 
Krugman had this to say about the repeal of the ACA, an action that will strip health care coverage from tens of millions of Americans: 

And if the Affordable Care Act is killed, myths about its costs will be replaced by the reality of soaring bills for millions of Americans who don’t realize how much the act has helped them.

But won’t Trumpcare solve all these problems, by offering something much better and cheaper? Not a chance.

Republicans don’t have a health care plan, but they do have a philosophy — and it’s all about less. Less regulation, so that insurers can turn you down if you have a pre-existing condition. Less government support, so if you can’t afford coverage, too bad. And less coverage in general: Republican ideas about cost control are all about “skin in the game,” requiring people to pay more out of pocket (which somehow doesn’t stop them from complaining about high deductibles).

Implementing this philosophy would deliver a big windfall to the wealthy, who would get a huge tax cut from Obamacare repeal, and it would mean lower premiums for a relatively small number of currently healthy individuals — especially if they’re rich enough that they don’t need to worry about high deductibles.

But the idea that it would lead to big cost savings over all is pure fantasy, and it would have a devastating effect on the millions who have gained coverage during the Obama years.



 
steeler

steeler Avatar

Location: Perched on the precipice of the cauldron of truth


Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 12:42pm

 miamizsun wrote:

this is true with every president

the masses fall for the campaign rhetoric

belief without evidence = politics

people could care less about process whether it's legal, legitimate or sustainable

good stories and free stuff win elections

they seek the end result at practically any cost

it's easy to convince them, especially when they're not paying

regards

 
There is some truth to that, but the degree is different here, as is the scope.  Yes, lofty, general promises are made on the campaign trail that do not come to anything close to full fruition — e.g., I am going to change the culture in Washington; I will work across the aisle and bring unity; I will be completely transparent; I will spur the economy, bring jobs; etc.  And there have been specific promises that were voiced, and not realized, for whatever reasons — e.g., I will close Guantanamo..  Here, though, we had a candidate and now have a President-elect who is prone to say things for which his supporters say he  should not be held accountable for even saying, much less failing to do.   This has been Trump's political stock in trade:  Obama should produce his birth certificate to prove he was not born in Kenya; Ted Cruz's father may have been involved with Oswald in the assassination of JFK; Cruz is not eligible to be President  because born in Canada; Mexico will pay for the wall; I will prosecute Hillary as soon as I take office.     


Steely_D

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Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 12:19pm

 miamizsun wrote:

this is true with every president

the masses fall for the campaign rhetoric

belief without evidence = politics Religion

 
That's what this is. Can facts sway their allegiance or beliefs? If not, it's religion.
miamizsun

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Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
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Posted: Jan 13, 2017 - 4:27am

 steeler wrote:
Trump appeals to those who believe the ends justify the means. They are  hoping those ends materialize.

By the way, neither Bush was an attorney, nor were Reagan or Carter.
 
this is true with every president

the masses fall for the campaign rhetoric

belief without evidence = politics

people could care less about process whether it's legal, legitimate or sustainable

good stories and free stuff win elections

they seek the end result at practically any cost

it's easy to convince them, especially when they're not paying

regards
kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 10:11pm

 steeler wrote:

Trump appeals to those who believe the ends justify the means. They are  hoping those ends materialize.

By the way, neither Bush was an attorney, nor were Reagan or Carter.

 
Starting with FDR, Presidents with law degrees were: Nixon, Ford, Clinton, Obama. That's four out of 13 Presidents.   

 
steeler

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Location: Perched on the precipice of the cauldron of truth


Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 8:17pm

 kurtster wrote:
Thanks, none taken.  The kitty is doing great and has settled right in.

If the man gets the wall and all the reform that goes with it built, I'll be happy.  I don't give a rat's arse who pays for it and never believed that Mexico would end up paying for it in the first place.  Just a rally chant is all it ever was to me.  What seems to be a difference in perception is that Trump supporters really only take him figuratively while his detractors try and take him literally.  I would say that most Trump supporters look at the wall the same way I do.  Just build it, then we'll figure out what to do next.

And fwiw, for the first time in a long time we don't have an attorney who never signed the front of a paycheck in the WH.  We now have a guy who not only signs the fronts of paychecks but is also someone who is used to having attorneys work for them. 

So far he has manged to piss off everyone on both sides of the establishment and now the US Chamber of Commerce.  This is good, very good.  Iffen everyone is mad at you, that means you're doing something right more often than not.  

Hillary ?  Hillary, who ?   She's dust  in the afterburners.  Isn't much to say about her that matters.

I'm trying to look forward and am pretty impressed with the organization going on so far.  We have a Project Manager in Chief and stuff will move fast.  Trump could end up being the hardest working CIC we've ever had.  He's been sitting around since 1980 wanting to be prezident.  I think he must have some kinda thoughts or vision after all that time thinking about it.  I just hope its a good one.

Or I could be totally wrong.
 

 
Trump appeals to those who believe the ends justify the means. They are  hoping those ends materialize.

By the way, neither Bush was an attorney, nor were Reagan or Carter.


Steely_D

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Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 8:13pm

Someone on the 538.com podcast said that Trump was the Honey Badger. Half the folks in the studio didn't get the joke, but I thought it was pretty damn funny.

 
kurtster

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Location: drifting
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Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 7:42pm

 kcar wrote:
 

There should be an RP betting pool to see how long it'll take right-leaning people to wish HRC had won instead of Trump. I don't know if kurtster* will ever change his mind, but based on the race to destroy and not-replace the ACA I think there'll be quite a bit of buyer's remorse walking around in the next year or two.

* No disrespect intended, kurtster. Just saying you're a man of very strong convictions. I don't agree with some of them but you're entitled to your opinions. Hope everything's working out with the new cat.

 {#Wave}

 
Thanks, none taken.  The kitty is doing great and has settled right in.

If the man gets the wall and all the reform that goes with it built, I'll be happy.  I don't give a rat's arse who pays for it and never believed that Mexico would end up paying for it in the first place.  Just a rally chant is all it ever was to me.  What seems to be a difference in perception is that Trump supporters really only take him figuratively while his detractors try and take him literally.  I would say that most Trump supporters look at the wall the same way I do.  Just build it, then we'll figure out what to do next.

And fwiw, for the first time in a long time we don't have an attorney who never signed the front of a paycheck in the WH.  We now have a guy who not only signs the fronts of paychecks but is also someone who is used to having attorneys work for them. 

So far he has manged to piss off everyone on both sides of the establishment and now the US Chamber of Commerce.  This is good, very good.  Iffen everyone is mad at you, that means you're doing something right more often than not.  

Hillary ?  Hillary, who ?   She's dust  in the afterburners.  Isn't much to say about her that matters.

I'm trying to look forward and am pretty impressed with the organization going on so far.  We have a Project Manager in Chief and stuff will move fast.  Trump could end up being the hardest working CIC we've ever had.  He's been sitting around since 1980 wanting to be prezident.  I think he must have some kinda thoughts or vision after all that time thinking about it.  I just hope its a good one.

Or I could be totally wrong.
 
kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 7:20pm

 ojibwe wrote:

The Republicans have no plan. Essentially, they are "winging it." Someone is holed up somewhere in Washington working up a plan, but it will eventually emerge as some hideous monstrosity that no one will like. 

Pre-existing conditions and extension of coverage for children on parent's plans to age 26 will disappear. Obligations will move to the states. Do you live in a healthy state? Good for you! Oh you don't? So sad ....

The market will become private again. Rates will jump again, on top of the already high rates they currently have.

But the GOP has no plan.  

 
{#Yes}

One of the reasons that Trump got the GOP nomination was the lack of leadership at the top of the party, which led to a failure to rally opposition to Trump around a plan of action or alternative nominee. Paul Krugman (and likely others) has talked about how the GOP members in Congress are largely careerists focused on their own political fortunes and averse to taking on difficult issues. Trump rightly talked about how the GOP was a rotten structure, so I don't have a lot of faith that the party will replace the ACA with timely or effective alternative. 

However, as this long Vox.com article points out, Republicans and right-leaning think tanks have at least seven proposed alternatives to the ACA. It's not clear that the GOP will find the courage or sufficient level of agreement to pass any of these alternatives into law, but this Vox piece gives us a rough idea of the range of health care scenarios the country might face.

This excerpt from the piece summarizes the writer's review of the more significant plans:

It turns out Republicans have a lot of choices: There are at least seven different replacement plans that Republican legislators and conservative think tanks have offered in recent years. I’ve spent the past week reading them, and what I’ve learned is this:

  • Yes, Republicans have replacement plans. It is true that the party has not coalesced around one plan — but there are real policy proposals coming from Republican legislators and conservative think tanks. There is a base that the party can work from in crafting a replacement plan.
 
  • There is significant variation in what the plans propose. On one end of the spectrum, you see plans from President-elect Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz that would repeal Obamacare and replace it with virtually nothing. On the other end of the spectrum, there are plans from conservative think tanks that go as far as to keep the Affordable Care Act marketplaces and continue to give low-income Americans the most generous insurance subsidies.
 
  • If we can say one thing about most Republican plans, it is this: They are better for younger, healthy people and worse for older, sicker people. In general, conservative replacement plans offer less financial help to those who would use a lot of insurance. This will make their insurance subsidies significantly less expensive than Obamacare’s.
 
  • Economic analyses estimate that these plans reduce the number of Americans with insurance coverage. The actual amount varies significantly, from 3 million to 21 million, depending on which option Republicans pick. They will near certainly provide more coverage than Americans had before Obamacare, but also less than what exists currently under the health law.
 

ALSO—just realized this NYT piece comments further on the Vox.com piece and offers insights on the trade-offs that the right-wing health care plans make as well as the difficulties that Trump will face in keeping his promise to come up a plan that is "far less expensive and far better" than the ACA. 

ojibwe

ojibwe Avatar



Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 7:02pm

 kcar wrote:
I haven't read much about the Republican plans, including discussion of changing Medicare, but my guess is that the industry is going to be dealing with massive changes in the next few years. 
 
The Republicans have no plan. Essentially, they are "winging it." Someone is holed up somewhere in Washington working up a plan, but it will eventually emerge as some hideous monstrosity that no one will like. 

Pre-existing conditions and extension of coverage for children on parent's plans to age 26 will disappear. Obligations will move to the states. Do you live in a healthy state? Good for you! Oh you don't? So sad ....

The market will become private again. Rates will jump again, on top of the already high rates they currently have.

But the GOP has no plan.  


kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 6:42pm

 Steely_D wrote:

As most folks have guessed, I'm part of the medical industry. Folks ask me what I think of the repeal of Obamacare.

I point to this and say, I'm gonna do fine. We tried to fix it and folks voted against their better interests and in favor of the insurance company and want this historical pattern again.
So me and my family, honestly, will be fine. But I like to think I can see bigger picture: what's best for the nation.

Once the populace still can't afford health care, and the jobs don't happen, and the wall doesn't happen, and Hillary doesn't go to jail, and the administration is full of billionaires, and we are told to not trust the news that isn't sanctioned, then I wonder what will become of the Golden President then.



 

 
It's going to get very ugly. It's already ugly now: he's not getting the honeymoon period that most new Presidents enjoy. Opposition to Trump and skepticism about his administration haven't gelled into organized political action but given his lack of policy preparation and willingness to act rashly (eg the dismantling of the ACA), Trump's failure to deliver on his promises is going to alienate his supporters. 

In terms of the healthcare industry, Steely_D, as far as I can see the changes that Trump and the GOP leaders are discussing could affect even people like yourself who apparently don't rely on the ACA for coverage. I haven't read much about the Republican plans, including discussion of changing Medicare, but my guess is that the industry is going to be dealing with massive changes in the next few years. 

I'm not completely sure what islander meant when he wrote "This will be a hot stove presidency" but if that term means there'll be a lot of speculation about what Trump should do and whether he's doing a good job, then yes I'd agree with that. Trump spewed a lot of anger about the failure of Washington and proclaimed how The Donald would make America great again. He has no message of hope or optimism or love—he's all about anger and the arrogance of a "Great Man" looking down on the rest of us as he alone "fixes" the country.

That'll get tired real fast, especially when he doesn't deliver and his supporters realize (or remember) that it's hard to get big things done in Washington. I'm sure that there'll be attempts to distract people from the problems that Trump is going to run into with denunciations of Democratic treachery or Chinese skullduggery, etc. But Trump's called BS on Washington's failures and that is going to make it easier for people to call BS on his failures. 

The New York Times ran a good piece recently about Trump supporters in Iowa. It captured the range of reasons that motivated people to vote for Trump—jobs, cleaning up Washington, protection against extremist Muslim attacks, cutting off government support of undeserving people, etc. But many of the people interviewed didn't have a clear idea about how Trump would turn promises into policies. 
Red_Dragon

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Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 4:18pm

Donald Trump press conference: Folders 'containing his business plan' appear to be blank

The man is a complete and utter fraud. Would you buy a used car from him? 
islander

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Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 9:53am

 Steely_D wrote:

As most folks have guessed, I'm part of the medical industry. Folks ask me what I think of the repeal of Obamacare.

I point to this and say, I'm gonna do fine. We tried to fix it and folks voted against their better interests and in favor of the insurance company and want this historical pattern again.
So me and my family, honestly, will be fine. But I like to think I can see bigger picture: what's best for the nation.

Once the populace still can't afford health care, and the jobs don't happen, then I wonder what will become of the Golden President then.
 
I'm with you there. I consider myself pragmatically socially liberal. The pragmatic part knows that no matter how much counsel you provide, people generally need to make their own mistakes before they learn. This will be a hot stove presidency.
Steely_D

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Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 9:48am

 islander wrote:

There is a surprising (even more so than general humanity) ability for rationalization and self-deception among his faithful. I'm wondering how many people are really his faithful though, I think a lot of people are predisposed to just be unhappy with government. It will be interesting to see what really happens when the impacts start to be felt on the street.  I'm not a 1%er by any stretch, but I'm happy to have my own safety net and be close enough to get some of the benefits that will be coming to the crony class. I feel genuinely bad for those who will be more negatively impacted, but they seem to be cheering on the changes, so what are you gonna do?

 
As most folks have guessed, I'm part of the medical industry. Folks ask me what I think of the repeal of Obamacare.

I point to this and say, I'm gonna do fine. We tried to fix it and folks voted against their better interests and in favor of the insurance company and want this historical pattern again.
So me and my family, honestly, will be fine. But I like to think I can see bigger picture: what's best for the nation.

Once the populace still can't afford health care, and the jobs don't happen, and the wall doesn't happen, and Hillary doesn't go to jail, and the administration is full of billionaires, and we are told to not trust the news that isn't sanctioned, then I wonder what will become of the Golden President then.



 


islander

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Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 9:28am

 Steely_D wrote:

I think right now they're feeding on hope. When will things not happen the way they expected and they start getting frustrated?

 
There is a surprising (even more so than general humanity) ability for rationalization and self-deception among his faithful. I'm wondering how many people are really his faithful though, I think a lot of people are predisposed to just be unhappy with government. It will be interesting to see what really happens when the impacts start to be felt on the street.  I'm not a 1%er by any stretch, but I'm happy to have my own safety net and be close enough to get some of the benefits that will be coming to the crony class. I feel genuinely bad for those who will be more negatively impacted, but they seem to be cheering on the changes, so what are you gonna do?
Red_Dragon

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Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 9:19am

FACT CHECK: Trump Lawyer's Claim And Comparison to Rockefeller Is a Head Scratcher
Steely_D

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Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 9:04am

 ScottFromWyoming wrote:

In for a dime, in for a dollar. They're more bellicose now than 2 months ago.

 
I think right now they're feeding on hope. When will things not happen the way they expected and they start getting frustrated?


ScottFromWyoming

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Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 8:48am

 Steely_D wrote:
The real issue - the most important one - is when will the electorate decide that he's the wrong choice? Will it be before or after the end of this term?
 
In for a dime, in for a dollar. They're more bellicose now than 2 months ago.
Steely_D

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Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 8:45am

 kcar wrote:
 

There should be an RP betting pool to see how long it'll take right-leaning people to wish HRC had won instead of Trump. I don't know if kurtster* will ever change his mind, but based on the race to destroy and not-replace the ACA I think there'll be quite a bit of buyer's remorse walking around in the next year or two.

* No disrespect intended, kurtster. Just saying you're a man of very strong convictions. I don't agree with some of them but you're entitled to your opinions. Hope everything's working out with the new cat.

 {#Wave}

 
I think it'll never happen that they'll have wanted Killary, but I do believe (and this is so far just me speculating) that there are people in rooms going "Man, I wish we'd supported Bush/etc more and this hadn't happened. Now what do we do?"
It's obvious that this was a hostile takeover, and now they've got Honey Badger for the leader of their party.

The real issue - the most important one - is when will the electorate decide that he's the wrong choice? Will it be before or after the end of this term?
oldviolin

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Posted: Jan 12, 2017 - 8:11am

I can say for sure that if you're struggling with bladder cancer a golden shower is a good thing. If you're pissing blood then it shuts the comedy completely down and everybody runs for metaphorical cover...
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