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Index » Regional/Local » USA/Canada » Real Estate Page: Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 14, 15, 16  Next
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Welly

Welly Avatar

Location: Lotusland
Gender: Female


Posted: Jun 12, 2006 - 4:32pm

coding_to_music wrote:


Maybe in "the long run"

But in the short run, people have aquired a lot of debt in mortgage, home equity loans, credit cards.

Meanwhile, they are not getting meaningful increases in income, and costs are rising due to energy, interest rates and overall inflation...



The people you're talking about are those poor souls who "overextended" themselves by putting 5% down out of their RRSP or some such nonsense.

And yes, when interest rates go up those are the folks who'll be slapping their properties into the market quicker than you can say double mortgage.

But there will also be people ready to buy up those properties and turn around and rent them out, because there will be more renters looking for housing within the same market.

I don't think the entire market is going to crash because of this segment of first time buyers who are really not financially ready to be owners and yet have bought anyway.
BlueHeronDruid

BlueHeronDruid Avatar

Location: planting flowers


Posted: Jun 12, 2006 - 4:29pm

coding_to_music wrote:


Maybe in "the long run"

But in the short run, people have aquired a lot of debt in mortgage, home equity loans, credit cards.

Meanwhile, they are not getting meaningful increases in income, and costs are rising due to energy, interest rates and overall inflation...


If this is true and comes to pass, I will have to say that I have very good timing.
coding_to_music

coding_to_music Avatar

Location: Beantown
Gender: Male


Posted: Jun 12, 2006 - 4:27pm

Welly wrote:
The bubble will only burst in markets where there is unlimited land for outward expansion and new building. In cities where the footprint is geographically limited by ocean and mountains the market will continue to be hot. Demand outstripping supply is all it takes.


Maybe in "the long run"

But in the short run, people have aquired a lot of debt in mortgage, home equity loans, credit cards.

Meanwhile, they are not getting meaningful increases in income, and costs are rising due to energy, interest rates and overall inflation...


Welly

Welly Avatar

Location: Lotusland
Gender: Female


Posted: Jun 12, 2006 - 4:22pm

Mugro wrote:


Let's face it. We're screwed.

What many of you outside the real estate industry don't know is that the real estate market crash is already happening. The media is always the last to catch on to this thing, and they have only begun to start reporting the predictions of the bubble burst that is already goin on.


The bubble will only burst in markets where there is unlimited land for outward expansion and new building. In cities where the footprint is geographically limited by ocean and mountains the market will continue to be hot. Demand outstripping supply is all it takes.
Mugro

Mugro Avatar

Location: 1,000 shades of green (Ireland)


Posted: Jun 12, 2006 - 2:38pm

coding_to_music wrote:

Let's face it. We're screwed.

What many of you outside the real estate industry don't know is that the real estate market crash is already happening. The media is always the last to catch on to this thing, and they have only begun to start reporting the predictions of the bubble burst that is already goin on.
coding_to_music

coding_to_music Avatar

Location: Beantown
Gender: Male


Posted: Jun 12, 2006 - 2:35pm

Monday view: Storm clouds gather over a US economy heading for icebergs
/snip
Mr Bernanke is counting on a "soft-landing" for the housing boom, the central pillar of the US consumer economy.

It provided $600bn of spending last year from home equity withdrawals - ie, from ever-bigger mortgages entailing ever-more debt.

This rosy assumption is looking shakier by the day. The inventory of unsold new houses is now at the highest level in a decade, rising by 1m properties to 4m over the last year.

The Philadelphia index of US construction equities has crashed 23.3pc since early May, pointing to an immediate wave of lay-offs.

Some 32pc of the 4.22m jobs created by the US economy since the expansion began in 2001 have been in the housing sector, more than four times the usual ratio, according to a study by Merrill Lynch. HSBC warns that US property has already tipped into a downturn, with the likelihood of outright price declines in the overheated markets of the East and West coast.

Ian Morris, the bank's chief US economist, said the combined cost of mortgage payments and house insurance for new buyers in California takes up 70pc of pre-tax income.

"Affordability is now worse than in 1981 when mortgage rates were 16pc. This is pretty scary stuff," he said, predicting a property slump lasting four to five years.

The Federal Reserve's blunder was to hold interest rates at almost free-money levels of 1pc until the summer of 2004, yet blowing fresh asset bubbles at home and abroad, and stealing prosperity from the future by pushing spending to the reckless level of 107pc of GDP.

The time for tough love was then, not now, sixteen rate rises later - with delayed effects only just starting to exact their toll.

If Ben Bernanke had guts, he would now be holding the ground he staked out to Congress in April, explaining patiently that inflation lags the cycle. Are the bond markets telling us he has failed his first test of nerves?

Mugro

Mugro Avatar

Location: 1,000 shades of green (Ireland)


Posted: May 25, 2006 - 11:03am

EleventhMan wrote:


and that's my food chain...


Well, get prepared to batton down the hatches and hunker down for the long haul then, because it might be a little rough out there for a bit.
EleventhMan

EleventhMan Avatar

Gender: Female


Posted: May 25, 2006 - 11:00am

coding_to_music wrote:


Yup, and home improvement / renovations based on home equity lines of credit...


and that's my food chain...
coding_to_music

coding_to_music Avatar

Location: Beantown
Gender: Male


Posted: May 25, 2006 - 10:46am

Mugro wrote:


It is softening. The glut of listings on the market means that it is now a buyer's market. Prices have already started to fall in my neck of the woods, and they will fall further until the number of buyers catches up to the number of sellers. This is what we call a "market correction." It is a good thing in small doses, because prices of housing got way out of control. However, a larger correction could be very bad because it could lead to vast numbers of foreclosures and a general depression in the market.

Don't forget that there are a lot of jobs in the real estate industry. We are all affected. Real estate was what was keeping our economy going for awhile there. Now, not so much.


Yup, and home improvement / renovations based on home equity lines of credit...
Mugro

Mugro Avatar

Location: 1,000 shades of green (Ireland)


Posted: May 25, 2006 - 10:43am

coding_to_music wrote:


Whats your impression of the market?


It is softening. The glut of listings on the market means that it is now a buyer's market. Prices have already started to fall in my neck of the woods, and they will fall further until the number of buyers catches up to the number of sellers. This is what we call a "market correction." It is a good thing in small doses, because prices of housing got way out of control. However, a larger correction could be very bad because it could lead to vast numbers of foreclosures and a general depression in the market.

Don't forget that there are a lot of jobs in the real estate industry. We are all affected. Real estate was what was keeping our economy going for awhile there. Now, not so much.
coding_to_music

coding_to_music Avatar

Location: Beantown
Gender: Male


Posted: May 25, 2006 - 10:37am

Mugro wrote:
This is why I have so much time to spend on RP!!


Whats your impression of the market?
Mugro

Mugro Avatar

Location: 1,000 shades of green (Ireland)


Posted: May 25, 2006 - 10:27am

coding_to_music wrote:

This is why I have so much time to spend on RP!!
coding_to_music

coding_to_music Avatar

Location: Beantown
Gender: Male


Posted: May 25, 2006 - 10:21am

A record glut of houses for sale in Mass. should send prices tumbling (Greater Boston: 4000 1 year ago, 6400 today)

Graphic
coding_to_music

coding_to_music Avatar

Location: Beantown
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 30, 2006 - 8:32pm

The housing bubble has popped: Reports of falling sales and investors stuck with properties they can't sell are just the beginning. Property owners should worry; so should their lenders.
by Bill Fleckenstein
MSN
Monday, April 24, 2006
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P149596.asp

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

A recent story in the Wall Street Journal, "Hot Homes Get Cold" (subscription required) offered lots of its useful vignettes that serve as a microcosm of manic markets -- starting with the bravado-cum-denial displayed by a medical-equipment salesman in Stuart, Fla.

Concerned about his real-estate investment apparently going sour, he can't afford to reduce the price to what homes now sell for in his neighborhood -- which is about $100,000 less than he's asking. Says the salesman: "If I got in a jam, I would have to drop the price, but I am not at that point." His game plan: Rent the house, so as not to "lose my shirt."

That's the mentality often seen in manic markets -- the belief that you can't possibly lose, and, when the price goes against you, you don't have to deal with it, because it will come back. This fellow (and millions more like him) is going to find out that his belief is a mistaken one, in the same way that folks did when the stock bubble burst.

Dwelling takes a little shelling
The story went on to note that many formerly hot markets in California, Arizona, Washington, D.C., and Florida are now "languishing without buyers or even prospects. Many once-booming markets are seeing double-digit declines in sales." The magnitude of the drop in Florida home prices (once the frothiest market in the country) is striking. Single-family home sales declined 20% in February, year-over-year. Similarly, California sales dropped 15%. Some of the hottest towns in those states were off twice as much.

I loved the point that what seems to be really alarming is how "real-estate agents in some of these formerly red-hot markets have been surprised at how suddenly (my emphasis) market conditions have deteriorated in the past few months." Of course, that's what happens when manic markets and bubbles turn. Prices change radically and, seemingly, for no reason.

Many people will say that the real-estate market has turned due to higher interest rates, and rising rates have hurt. But the real-estate market ignored rates going up for quite some time. Its topping was caused by exhaustion. Same with the stock bubble -- many folks think it was rising rates that caused the implosion. That isn't true. The stock bubble ran until it popped in March 2000, having ignored everything up to that point.

Symptoms of the doldrums
To me, it's not debatable that the real-estate bust is starting to gather steam. The top was approximately when Time Magazine published its June 12, 2005, cover story: "Home $weet Home: Why We're Going Gaga Over Real Estate". (For more, check out my June 13, 2005, column, "Straight talk on what the Fed has wrought," and my Aug. 29, 2005, column, "It's RIP for the housing boom.")

After having leveled off for a while, the real-estate market is now starting to slide. We're seeing signs of sales slowing and inventory accumulating, which are all quite classic, even though the timing of when this would begin was not possible to predict in advance.

Continuing on, the article noted that Florida is "ground zero for the housing market" and as good a laboratory as any to watch. The real power behind the housing bubble, i.e., irresponsible lending, was "exacerbated in Florida." Quoting from Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com: "There were more lenders, more realtors, more foreign investors" than the rest of the country -- which is how a hot market gets really wild.

The story cited the plight of investors who'd purchased homes in formerly hot housing developments that now resemble "ghost towns." One such individual is Paul Zani (no pun intended, I'm sure), who'd bought a couple of condos, listed them for more than he paid and now can't sell them. However, he doesn't want to reduce the price (even though he'll probably have to). This mentality is an example that many real-estate "investors" seem to share -- heads we win, tails the bank loses. (Some people are sanguine these days because, as the article notes, "while sales are slackening, they aren't collapsing." To that, I would add: "Yet." They will.)

By and by, heartburn for the bankers
It is indeed the financial institutions that are most at risk in the real-estate market (which is not to say that consumers and speculators won't get hurt). The lenders will bear the brunt of the pain, because in many cases, they loaned the entire purchase prices of many homes. As I have said often, the housing bubble has been more a lending bubble. It will be the impairment of the financial institutions that will stop the flow of credit to the real-estate market. In turn, that will accelerate the collapse in house prices somewhere along the way.

The story closed with a description of how slow the market has recently become in Florida -- via the following comments in an e-mail by real-estate broker Mike Morgan: "We went three days this week with not a single showing. That's incredible. I have 35 listings. We usually get 2-6 showings a day. ... I received more desperate calls from sellers than ever. One lady broke down into tears. Her husband bought two investment properties, and they are now going to lose their 'life savings' if they sell the homes in today's market."

Ladies and gentlemen, unfortunately, a lot of people around the country are going to be badly hurt as this bubble unwinds. And, after they have taken their losses, the financial institutions that were the engine behind this folly will take their own hits. 'Easy Al' Greenspan at the Fed tried to bail out one bubble with another bubble. While it bought some time, it will end in far-worse pain.

A vision of mean reversion
Finally, a recent edition of The Liscio Report, the economic newsletter, put into perspective how wacko the current climate is. It said that the ratios of (a) stock value to GDP and (b) real-estate value to GDP are both nearly twice their averages from 1952 to 1970. As the report noted: "If mean reversion still has any role in market valuations, then both markets have plenty of room to fall."
Since the name of my investment partnership is the RTM Fund (which stands for "reversion to the mean"), I obviously believe that plenty of mean reversion lies ahead.

coding_to_music

coding_to_music Avatar

Location: Beantown
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 19, 2006 - 8:41am

rgio wrote:

In looking at Zillow a lot recently, the only thing it's useful for at this point is RE Tax and recent sale value. Their Zestimates are illogical (at least in my area). My house, according to them has lost $60K in value over the past month. That's not accurate.

Their algorithms and interface will be refined a lot in the coming year (IMO). What would be very useful is a way to refine the local results over time (show me homes sold over the past 2 years with 3+ bedrooms). That'll make it much more effective.

It's still early, and it is a very ambitious undertaking. When it matures, it has the potential to dramatically change the way real estate is bought and sold. If the MLS loses their stranglehold on sale data, commissioned brokers (at least the 6% ones) and the local office infrastructure will be in serious jeopardy.


All good comments

I liked it more for the ballpark estimates
values changing within a year are silly -- to me it is more about a view of the neighborhood & prices.

Kind of a merger of local tax assessments and google maps..

The technical aspect of what they've done seems almost normal now -- it's getting access to the data (city records etc) that is the hard part...
rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 19, 2006 - 8:28am

coding_to_music wrote:
This is SO Cool: Zillow.com

Gives a satellite map of your neighborhood with house values.

They are just estimates, but neat ballpark figures...

Address / zip & off you go...

In looking at Zillow a lot recently, the only thing it's useful for at this point is RE Tax and recent sale value. Their Zestimates are illogical (at least in my area). My house, according to them has lost $60K in value over the past month. That's not accurate.

Their algorithms and interface will be refined a lot in the coming year (IMO). What would be very useful is a way to refine the local results over time (show me homes sold over the past 2 years with 3+ bedrooms). That'll make it much more effective.

It's still early, and it is a very ambitious undertaking. When it matures, it has the potential to dramatically change the way real estate is bought and sold. If the MLS loses their stranglehold on sale data, commissioned brokers (at least the 6% ones) and the local office infrastructure will be in serious jeopardy.
coding_to_music

coding_to_music Avatar

Location: Beantown
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 19, 2006 - 8:08am

This is SO Cool: Zillow.com

Gives a satellite map of your neighborhood with house values.

They are just estimates, but neat ballpark figures...

Address / zip & off you go...

coding_to_music

coding_to_music Avatar

Location: Beantown
Gender: Male


Posted: Mar 4, 2006 - 10:08pm

What has kept money flowing for the last five years has been the real estate market – the real black heart of the bubble economy. Without all the concrete, plastic, granite counter-tops, sales agents, home equity lines and mortgage brokers, the imperial economy would already have keeled over exhausted. And the longer it goes on, the further in debt people get, the more expensive houses become and the more uncertain the poor householders' steps become.
Zukiwi

Zukiwi Avatar

Location: Montreal's suburb
Gender: Female


Posted: Nov 6, 2005 - 7:21am

coding_to_music wrote:

There are points I found essentially different from NA perspective and Dutch. Taxes.

Apparently, their morgage is tax deductible, which is not here (don't know about the US). However, once the house is paid, it becomes taxable (almost fell off my chair when I first heard that from my mohter in law). The Dutch government evaluates how much it would cost to reside in YOUR house, and includes that as a REVENUE. That's enough to kill any economy me thinks ...
honeygirl

honeygirl Avatar

Location: a tract of land... New England
Gender: Female


Posted: Nov 6, 2005 - 6:57am

I want to move to Sweden... anyone want to come?
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