So we are a week in and I think it is time to take short pause and see what happened over the last 7 days.
The Russian attack began, as predicted, mostly by strikes with standoff weapons. 24 hour hours later the Ukie air force and navy ceased to exist. In this initial phase, few Ukrainian units were directly engaged.
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So far, that has worked pretty well. But here are the stone cold fact about the Ukie military:
Air Force: gone
Navy: gone
Long range, standoff capabilities: gone
Air defenses: gone
Regular ground forces: no less than 65% (some say up to 80%) of the Ukie military is surrounded and condemned
Assorted Nazi units: I donât have the figures, but A LOT of them are now either in the Donbass cauldron or in Mariupol. They will mostly not be taken prisoner, except for the leaders who will be tried and sentenced for their innumerable crimes.
So, in terms of the Russian goals, here is how I would score this:
Ukrainian disarmament: mostly already done, the Ukraine has nothing to threaten Russia with
Ukrainian denazification: only at the early start, but conditions are excellent and I am confident that most of the hardcore Nazis will soon be dead
One more thing I forgot to mention about the âno manâs landâ west of the Donbass operational cauldron. It is shown in the map below where the black and yellow lines touch (and add about 5-10km on each side)
According to my business partner (born in Russia with family there), Russia is about to impose martial law to stop the demonstrations.
I realise that is terrible, but something about the way things are developing reminds me so much of 1989 in Germany. When the people starting marching en masse, singing "wir sind das Volk" a lot of us in the west were waiting with baited breath for the military to walk in and start shooting everybody. Russia seems to have come to the same point in its history.
People don't generally like being told what to do or think at gunpoint.
let me think about this. You, a paid Russian shill, are posting material that suggests the sanctions won't hurt, which of course means the sanctions must be hurting, which means, MORE SANCTIONS! let's hit this privileged elite of robber barons who are screwing over their own country with everything we possibly can.
They are who will - hopefully - take out the little dictator.
â-> Follow The Money: How Russia Will Bypass Western Economic Warfare (A recent anti-West stance by Pepe Escobar, quite demagogic) - Moscow already linked its SPFS payment system not only to China but also to India and member nations of the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU). SPFS already links to approximately 400 banks. -
let me think about this. You, a paid Russian shill, are posting material that suggests the sanctions won't hurt, which of course means the sanctions must be hurting, which means, MORE SANCTIONS! let's hit this privileged elite of robber barons who are screwing over their own country with everything we possibly can.
Russia embarked on a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, catching just about everyone by surprise.1 Despite Western politicians and the press attempting to depict Russia as going slowly and/or doing poorly, itâs already clear a mere week in Russia will prevail. Russia had only deployed a small portion of its available forces. It appears to have been taking more casualties to reduce civilian deaths. It has left the power, the Internet, and even the cell phone system up even though that helped the Ukrainian army, presumably to reduce civilian panic and hardship. So far, it has also avoided civilian targets and infrastructure (âavoidedâ does not mean âcompletely sparedâ; something that surgical isnât feasible).
Russia still has to subdue important population centers, such as Kiev, Mariupol, Odessa. While the exact conditions on the ground are disputed, Russia appears to have encircled or at least terminally tied down the bulk of the Ukrainian army in Donbass, making it impossible to relieve Kiev. Depending on who you trust, Kiev is largely or entirely encircled. Ditto Mariupol and Odessa. Russia is also reported to be staging an amphibious assault on Odessa.
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So then the question is what the US will accept. Iâm not sure how it can back down. But Biden completely undercut his ability to push Europeans around by stating the US would not provide troops to support ground combat in Eastern Europe. So the French and Germans are supposed to serve as cannon fodder when they tried to avoid confrontation with Russia, such as opposing the NATO enlargement in 2008 to include Georgia and Ukraine, and by their repeated failed efforts to implement the Minsk Protocol.
As weâve pointed out, Russia has held back from economic retaliation, such as seizing Western assets in Russia, choking commodities supplies, and violating patents. But the current sanctions are inflicting pain and weakening Putinâs position, although not necessarily in the way the Western press portrays. Readers closer to Russia report that citizens, particularly now the pretty large middle class, are freaked out by the collapse of the rouble. But even more important, many have been directly whacked by the increase in interest rates to 20%. Many if not most mortgages are floating rate. And vlade reports that new mortgages are not being written, so home sales are presumably frozen.
So if Western economic sanctions arenât unwound soon, which seems extremely unlikely, Putin will lose backing among the more prosperous segments of Russian society. How that plays out remains to be seen.
"Russia has drawn up plans for public executions in Ukraine as and when cities are captured by Russian troops, Bloomberg reports.
Bloomberg cites a European intelligence official as saying that Moscow has drafted strategies to break morale in order to discourage Ukrainians from fighting back as cities fall under the Kremlinâs control.
The official said Moscow plans to crack down on protest, detain opponents and potentially carry out public executions, the news agency writes."
didn't read it yet (the article links to bloomberg?)
not sure how any human being could do that to another human being
how would you condition someone to "execute" such an atrocity?
"Russia has drawn up plans for public executions in Ukraine as and when cities are captured by Russian troops, Bloomberg reports.
Bloomberg cites a European intelligence official as saying that Moscow has drafted strategies to break morale in order to discourage Ukrainians from fighting back as cities fall under the Kremlinâs control.
The official said Moscow plans to crack down on protest, detain opponents and potentially carry out public executions, the news agency writes."
Just like the last assholes who invaded Ukraine. The irony is obscene.
