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miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 21, 2022 - 5:02am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

What is interesting here in Germany is the pattern of dissension. You get a number of academics and Russian apologists still punching above their weight in public discussion and keep plugging the Kremlin's line, like this plonker. But the real hands-on business people know exactly what the situation is. The loss of Russian and Ukrainian markets has been factored into budgets for the coming year. The more pressing issue is supply chain issues which are hard to predict.
The actual cost of energy OTOH is something you can factor into your pricing. Some succeed better than others. The key point though is that all of these distortions are temporary until the market settles back into place with new parameters. Russia has basically cooked its goose.
Oil & gas dependency on Russia is never going to happen again. 


has "tankie" which was originally a tease or mocking pejorative now morphed and crystalized into a badge of honor?
is it being embraced by intellectual western keyboard warriors? apparently so
surely he has reached out to putin and demanded that he cease fire, go home and make reparations to ukraine, no?

will this prompt the world to expedite its transition off of fossil fuels and onto greener sources?
what happens after putin? 
will the next person in line reject violence/war for peaceful leadership?
acknowledge human rights and voluntary makets?
i would say yes
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 19, 2022 - 1:16pm

 R_P wrote:

Still plenty of wishful thinking there.



 isn't there something delightfully ironic about our in-house communist wailing about government intervention and making a desperate plea for a return to a free market?

Sorry, even with an open market, a return to business as usual ain't going happen. Russia breached trust. That's not something you can easily repair.

R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Sep 19, 2022 - 1:11pm

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
um, I think you are missing the point. Nobody wants to do business with Russia until they get their shit sorted. It's got nothing to do with whether they are allowed to do business with Russia.
And if you think the sanctions aren't working, then what's your beef?  

Still plenty of wishful thinking* there.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 19, 2022 - 1:09pm

 R_P wrote:
um, I think you are missing the point. Nobody wants to do business with Russia until they get their shit sorted. It's got nothing to do with whether they are allowed to do business with Russia.
And if you think the sanctions aren't working, then what's your beef?  
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Sep 19, 2022 - 1:02pm

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Russia has basically cooked its goose.

Or so we keep hearing.

NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 19, 2022 - 12:51pm

 R_P wrote:
 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
pfft. we've seen worse. And the lesson? Don't do any business with Russia.

Keep going, Black Knight...
To some extent, the crisis is a blowback from European sanctions that were intended to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. The pain has undermined confidence at European companies and their ability to plan.
 
What is interesting here in Germany is the pattern of dissension. You get a number of academics and Russian apologists still punching above their weight in public discussion and keep plugging the Kremlin's line, like this plonker. But the real hands-on business people know exactly what the situation is. The loss of Russian and Ukrainian markets has been factored into budgets for the coming year. The more pressing issue is supply chain issues which are hard to predict.
The actual cost of energy OTOH is something you can factor into your pricing. Some succeed better than others. The key point though is that all of these distortions are temporary until the market settles back into place with new parameters. Russia has basically cooked its goose.
Oil & gas dependency on Russia is never going to happen again. 
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Sep 19, 2022 - 12:36pm

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
pfft. we've seen worse.

And the lesson? Don't do any business with Russia.

Keep going, Black Knight...
To some extent, the crisis is a blowback from European sanctions that were intended to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. The pain has undermined confidence at European companies and their ability to plan. (...)

Eschenbach Porcelain survived Germany’s transition from communism to capitalism after 1989. But when its energy contracts run out at the end of this year, the company will face annual energy bills of 5.5 million euros, or roughly six times what it is paying now, said Rolf Frowein, its director.“

That would mean we have to more than double our prices, and nobody will pay that for our cups and plates,” he said. Eschenbach, a 130-year-old company in the eastern state of Thuringia, is in talks with local politicians about a potential solution. It is one of dozens of small and midsize firms in Germany fearing they will have to close for good.
No, it'll be fine. Really.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 19, 2022 - 12:32pm

 R_P wrote:
‘Crippling’ Energy Bills Force Europe’s Factories to Go Dark
Manufacturers are furloughing workers and shutting down lines because they can’t pay the gas and electric charges.
Makers of metal, paper, fertilizer and other products that depend on gas and electricity to transform raw materials into products from car doors to cardboard boxes have announced belt-tightening. Half of Europe’s aluminum and zinc production has been taken offline, according to Eurometaux, Europe’s metals trade association.

Among them is Arcelor Mittal, Europe’s largest steel maker, which is idling blast furnaces in Germany. Alcoa, a global aluminum products producer, is cutting a third of production at its smelter in Norway. In the Netherlands, Nyrstar, the world’s biggest zinc producer, is pausing output until further notice.

Even toilet paper is not immune: In Germany, Hakle, one of the largest manufacturers, announced that it had tumbled into insolvency because of a “historic energy crisis.”
 
pfft. we've seen worse.

And the lesson? Don't do any business with Russia.
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Sep 19, 2022 - 12:14pm

‘Crippling’ Energy Bills Force Europe’s Factories to Go Dark
Manufacturers are furloughing workers and shutting down lines because they can’t pay the gas and electric charges.
Makers of metal, paper, fertilizer and other products that depend on gas and electricity to transform raw materials into products from car doors to cardboard boxes have announced belt-tightening. Half of Europe’s aluminum and zinc production has been taken offline, according to Eurometaux, Europe’s metals trade association.

Among them is Arcelor Mittal, Europe’s largest steel maker, which is idling blast furnaces in Germany. Alcoa, a global aluminum products producer, is cutting a third of production at its smelter in Norway. In the Netherlands, Nyrstar, the world’s biggest zinc producer, is pausing output until further notice.

Even toilet paper is not immune: In Germany, Hakle, one of the largest manufacturers, announced that it had tumbled into insolvency because of a “historic energy crisis.”

westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Sep 14, 2022 - 8:25am

Does anybody actually take Robert Reich seriously?

Or are Americans so anti-data and anti-science and so fond of aggressive finger-pointing that they cannot help themselves?
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 14, 2022 - 8:17am

 Red_Dragon wrote:


You'd think someone that smart wouldn't be so political and only mention one part of the equation that drives up prices.

Inflation often builds up over time, and has diverse and complex reasons behind it.



Some of these are – cheap $ policies (low rates and printing $ or QE); strong demand for goods; rising costs from wars that make commodities more scarce and disrupt supply chains, or simply running out of the commodity (oil); concentration of companies (big getting bigger, Reich's point above); and reversing years of cheap labor, both domestic and international.
It's not hard to see each of these and how the contributed to our current inflation trends, which was exasperated by the pandemic and our response. 



westslope

westslope Avatar

Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Sep 14, 2022 - 8:11am

 black321 wrote:

Couple of what should be fairly obvious articles on where we are now, and heading. Deglobalism – or more near shoring (not necessarily domestic production of cheap stuff like apparel and footwear) will lead to more spending, but this is the good type of investment needed to ensure a better future. Unfortunately, after decades of cheap labor and capital, the spending could lead to more s-t inflation. This and higher rates, will lead to even more debt…which could strangle our ability to continue to make these needed investments.


Unlike many progressives, I worry a lot about debt. Public debt, private debt, personal debt — I don’t like any of it. You could maybe chalk it up to my Midwestern upbringing or being the child of immigrant parents. I like having cash on hand, and have always been willing to pay a return price to hold it. You never know when bad times are coming.

So I was particularly interested in a paper by economists Francesco Bianchi of Johns Hopkins and Leonardo Melosi of the Chicago Fed, that made a huge stir last week in Jackson Hole. The typically low key academic title, “Inflation as a Fiscal Limit,” belies the heat that it is generating in academic, policy and even financial media circles. The frightening upshot of the work is that it doesn’t matter what the Federal Reserve does right now in terms of hiking rates to try and get inflation under control. If monetary policy isn’t accompanied by appropriate fiscal policy (or to be more accurate, a “mutually consistent monetary and fiscal policy”), then stagflation will be the result.

Uncomfortable economic truths

https://www.ft.com/content/6f7ea222-f21c-4879-8787-5188b93c129c




Once upon a time, many progressives were fiscally conservative.  Social democrats in northern Europe have generally been very fiscally conservative.   But I support your concerns.  

Today's trendy, vain, narcissistic progressives seem totally divorced from the real world.  They seem absolutely determined to accelerate the hegemonic decline of the USA.  Once again, and contrary to Sachs and others, I am using the term hegemony as a 'good thing'. 

As for de-globalization leading to more inflation... that is not necessarily the case.  It depends on monetary policy and to some extent fiscal policy AS ALWAYS.  Given the across the board, rock solid support for the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, it is reasonable to expect more crack-cocaine like macroeconomic fluctuations.  

De-globalization driven by US Neo-Mercantilism will reduce the growth in US per capita income and wealth.   Given the ongoing importance of racism in US economic and foreign policy and the propensity of American political leaders (of all stripes) to constantly mislead and lie to their citizens, I see this as inevitable.

The real tragedy is that lying about the China and its policies will not help solve extremely difficult, tough structural economic problems in the USA.  It will not help lift poor and low-income Americans out of poverty.

Then there was the President Joe Biden BIG LIE called the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.   Are Americans that gullible and stupid?


Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar



Posted: Sep 14, 2022 - 7:55am

black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 14, 2022 - 7:20am


black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 7, 2022 - 10:26am

 Lazy8 wrote:

Paywalled. Fair use excerpts?


you can create an account and get access to a few free reports each month.
basic premise, we need to be making these critical investments in existing and new infrastructure, 
but may be strangled by our massive debt from high discretionary spending and entitlements, in a new era of higher rates. 
debt does matter.
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Sep 6, 2022 - 12:40pm

 Lazy8 wrote:
Paywalled. Fair use excerpts?

Search (the URLs) on archive.ph.

Lazy8

Lazy8 Avatar

Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 6, 2022 - 10:46am

 black321 wrote:
Paywalled. Fair use excerpts?
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 6, 2022 - 9:37am

Couple of what should be fairly obvious articles on where we are now, and heading. Deglobalism – or more near shoring (not necessarily domestic production of cheap stuff like apparel and footwear) will lead to more spending, but this is the good type of investment needed to ensure a better future. Unfortunately, after decades of cheap labor and capital, the spending could lead to more s-t inflation. This and higher rates, will lead to even more debt…which could strangle our ability to continue to make these needed investments.


Unlike many progressives, I worry a lot about debt. Public debt, private debt, personal debt — I don’t like any of it. You could maybe chalk it up to my Midwestern upbringing or being the child of immigrant parents. I like having cash on hand, and have always been willing to pay a return price to hold it. You never know when bad times are coming.

So I was particularly interested in a paper by economists Francesco Bianchi of Johns Hopkins and Leonardo Melosi of the Chicago Fed, that made a huge stir last week in Jackson Hole. The typically low key academic title, “Inflation as a Fiscal Limit,” belies the heat that it is generating in academic, policy and even financial media circles. The frightening upshot of the work is that it doesn’t matter what the Federal Reserve does right now in terms of hiking rates to try and get inflation under control. If monetary policy isn’t accompanied by appropriate fiscal policy (or to be more accurate, a “mutually consistent monetary and fiscal policy”), then stagflation will be the result.

Uncomfortable economic truths

https://www.ft.com/content/6f7ea222-f21c-4879-8787-5188b93c129c



R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Aug 24, 2022 - 1:46pm

Riots
How Much Is Power in Europe? It’s Now Equal to Oil at $1,000 a Barrel


R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Jun 27, 2022 - 10:14am

Free(dumb) markets
Struggling to choke off the revenue that enables Russia to finance its invasion of Ukraine, and hoping to shield consumers at home from the war’s economic pain, leaders of the Group of 7 nations on Monday moved close to embracing an aggressive but untried plan to manipulate the price of oil, the largest commodity market in the world.

The plan — which would allow Russia to keep selling oil to the world but would sharply limit the price — is an acknowledgment that the embargoes the United States and allies swiftly imposed on Moscow’s lucrative energy exports have not dented Russian oil revenues. And they have driven up gasoline and other fuel prices, prompting consumer backlash in the United States and Europe. (...)

The effort to put a price cap on Russia oil is the brainchild of Janet L. Yellen, President Biden’s Treasury secretary. The details are likely weeks or more away from being finalized, requiring intense negotiations by G7 finance ministers, private companies and leaders of countries in Latin America, Africa and elsewhere that buy Russian oil.

And there is no guarantee that the plan will come together quickly, or at all, or that it will succeed as the G7 leaders hope.

There is also a potential political downside in Europe and possibly the United States: To succeed, the plan will need to give China, India and other countries that have not joined the G7 in opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the ability to buy oil at a much lower price than America or much of Europe can.

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