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You are giving me hope rgio!! But I have doubts about the bolded bit.
When DVD came out I had a friend who was a sound engineer and invested heavily in a new studio to produce high-end audio quality, believing the market would move to exploit the new sound quality it afforded (mainly for classical music). The opposite happened. The market moved to compressed files and mp3, mainly because everyone could suddenly rip their own files making them basically free. The same is now happening in my field. Machine translation can come up with some real clangers, but the translations are getting astonishingly better very rapidly. There comes a point when customers' quality expectations begin to fall in favour of something that is maybe not quite so good, but (almost) free.
And if something as complex as language can be handled, with all its nuance. I think it is only a question of time that it starts handling most other fields. All you need is a massive dataset, an ability to recognize patterns, apply logical arguments and mathematical probability models and hey presto, you've got something pretty damn close to the average brain.
I was just having a discussion with my business partner about this very topic, albeit in a slightly different context. Content has been the proxy for value in a lot of professions for a long time. The best content won. Picture quality. Sound quality. Research details. Quality (as you say) was king, and an acceptance of lower quality was done as a concession for other realities, primarily cost.
Now, it's more about the experience. The ease of consumption, the integration (of everything), the universal availability of what I want, when I want it, wherever I want it. The vast majority of users will surrender accuracy for the experience. Thinking less is better than having to work harder, especially when so many don't know the difference between the right and wrong answers.
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As for language, I'd suggest that it's one of the basic knowledge categories that people look for answers to. Chair. It's an object with pretty much a universal definition. Multiple legs, often with a back, used for sitting. I typed "what is the word for chair in the 10 most popular languages on the planet" into Bard just now...and it returned this..
Impressive, but basic. Sentence structure is more complex, but still relatively simple, as the rules are fixed. Would you give directions to your hotel using a free app to translate...sure. Would you buy a house or take a job after translating the contracts using a free tool? Probably not. It's a matter of risk/reward, and that kind of complex decisioning will take a very long time to program.
The human brain is an amazingly complex system, that we still don't quite understand completely. We can automate some of the basic tasks and heavy lifting, but decision-making for critical issues is a long, long, way off. At least in my (quite possibly very simple) mind. Quality has lost ground to speed recently, but the pendulum will swing and people will want assurance of quality for the things they value enough to pay for.
Speed comes in many forms. The ability to consume is now immense, but machines must be trained by humans for true AI. The training speed is going to take time. Google has the internet mapped, and the first few answers I got from Bard were fabricated crap.
There is also a reality that content and mediation/training are quickly forming teams, and will charge more for focused knowledge. Chat GPT might do an OK job translating, but I'm sure you have a favorite or two already. You using those systems will train the datasets you have access to, but they won't improve translation for everyone. The moats will get wider and the barriers to entry greater.
This year everyone will use as much as they can. Soon, errors will begin to matter, and people will pull back from the blind acceptance of AI that's going on now. We have entered the peak of inflated expectations per Gartner's Hype cycle....the trough of disillusionment awaits.
You are giving me hope rgio!! But I have doubts about the bolded bit.
When DVD came out I had a friend who was a sound engineer and invested heavily in a new studio to produce high-end audio quality, believing the market would move to exploit the new sound quality it afforded (mainly for classical music). The opposite happened. The market moved to compressed files and mp3, mainly because everyone could suddenly rip their own files making them basically free. The same is now happening in my field. Machine translation can come up with some real clangers, but the translations are getting astonishingly better very rapidly. There comes a point when customers' quality expectations begin to fall in favour of something that is maybe not quite so good, but (almost) free.
And if something as complex as language can be handled, with all its nuance. I think it is only a question of time that it starts handling most other fields. All you need is a massive dataset, an ability to recognize patterns, apply logical arguments and mathematical probability models and hey presto, you've got something pretty damn close to the average brain.
I think it is going to go faster than you think. AI has reached a point where its ability to learn is outpacing its drawbacks. In my own field (translation) there have been serious inroads by AI tools but we have learned to incorporate them. Last year was my busiest ever. This year is also busy (so far).. but prices have plummeted. I can't afford to keep my employee on anymore, which means loss of quality and ultimately less competitiveness on a market dominated by increasingly powerful AI machines. I have lost one major client so far (well, two actually, but won three others) but still.. It's only a matter of time. Time to think about becoming a professional athlete I guess.
Speed comes in many forms. The ability to consume is now immense, but machines must be trained by humans for true AI. The training speed is going to take time. Google has the internet mapped, and the first few answers I got from Bard were fabricated crap.
There is also a reality that content and mediation/training are quickly forming teams, and will charge more for focused knowledge. Chat GPT might do an OK job translating, but I'm sure you have a favorite or two already. You using those systems will train the datasets you have access to, but they won't improve translation for everyone. The moats will get wider and the barriers to entry greater.
This year everyone will use as much as they can. Soon, errors will begin to matter, and people will pull back from the blind acceptance of AI that's going on now. We have entered the peak of inflated expectations per Gartner's Hype cycle....the trough of disillusionment awaits.
what's left? clergy, diplomats, plumbers.. might go for plumber.
I have a few friends who are plumbers - one can make a good living at it once you get established, but among the building trades, fewer people seem to want that one - especially when starting out. Yeah, I can't see AI being able to do much of what it involves - at least unless/until the methods and materials of construction change drastically.
It's going to be a long time before AI replaces almost all jobs. What will happen quickly is that it will separate occupations into "those using AI" and those not. A lawyer who effectively uses it will be much more productive than one who doesn't. Accountants, coders, and dozens of others.
#20 on the list is Small business owners. While it may not eliminate the need for people to run small companies, it very well may be a requirement to successfully market, manage, and grow a company. At some point, not using AI as a small business owner is going to put your company at a competitive disadvantage.
FWIW - I've been using both GPT4 and Bard, and they both have some serious problems.
I think it is going to go faster than you think. AI has reached a point where its ability to learn is outpacing its drawbacks. In my own field (translation) there have been serious inroads by AI tools but we have learned to incorporate them. Last year was my busiest ever. This year is also busy (so far).. but prices have plummeted. I can't afford to keep my employee on anymore, which means loss of quality and ultimately less competitiveness on a market dominated by increasingly powerful AI machines. I have lost one major client so far (well, two actually, but won three others) but still.. It's only a matter of time. Time to think about becoming a professional athlete I guess.
1. therapists
2. social workers
....
19. plumbers
20. small business owners
It's going to be a long time before AI replaces almost all jobs. What will happen quickly is that it will separate occupations into "those using AI" and those not. A lawyer who effectively uses it will be much more productive than one who doesn't. Accountants, coders, and dozens of others.
#20 on the list is Small business owners. While it may not eliminate the need for people to run small companies, it very well may be a requirement to successfully market, manage, and grow a company. At some point, not using AI as a small business owner is going to put your company at a competitive disadvantage.
FWIW - I've been using both GPT4 and Bard, and they both have some serious problems.
There are already quite a few people (entities?) selling prints of AI-generated "art" for substantial amounts of money. Midjourney is one of the popular apps (among very many) - just type in a prompt/description and it makes a "painting". Not necessarily "replacing" artists or designers, but not helping either, except perhaps in the cases of artists or designers using the apps as a visualization/layout tool.
ok, scratch artists.
what's left? clergy, diplomats, plumbers.. might go for plumber.
1. therapists
2. social workers
3. early childhood educators
4. nurses
5. artists
6. writers
......
ok, I'm going for 6 and 7. or maybe an occupational therapist for ethical marine biologists. choices!
There are already quite a few people (entities?) selling prints of AI-generated "art" for substantial amounts of money. Midjourney is one of the popular apps (among very many) - just type in a prompt/description and it makes a "painting". Not necessarily "replacing" artists or designers, but not helping either, except perhaps in the cases of artists or designers using the apps as a visualization/layout tool.
Elon Musk, who helped start OpenAI in 2015 before departing three years later, has accused ChatGPT of being âwokeâ and pledged to build his own version.
Gab, a social network with an avowedly Christian nationalist bent that has become a hub for white supremacists and extremists, has promised to release A.I. tools with âthe ability to generate content freely without the constraints of liberal propaganda wrapped tightly around its code.â
âSilicon Valley is investing billions to build these liberal guardrails to neuter the A.I. into forcing their worldview in the face of users and present it as ârealityâ or âfact,ââ Andrew Torba, the founder of Gab, said in a written response to questions.
He equated artificial intelligence to a new information arms race, like the advent of social media, that conservatives needed to win. âWe donât intend to allow our enemies to have the keys to the kingdom this time around,â he said.
Now that's spiffy. NYT garmenting themselves with the voice of the No. 1 intellectual of our times.
Alas, the message revealed just seems to fit their usual slime (otherwise, they've never made any intellectual fame in quoting Chomsky so far, afaik).
everyone should have a look at wolfram alpha
interesting, fun and helpful
apparently some are diddling with the open ai chat interface and using wolfram as one of the sources
potentially a fantastic tool
none of this should be considered investment advice (see proper disclaimers below the vids)
i have always recommend getting that advice from a trusted professional
nor do i endorse any of the numerous people hosting emad conversations
if people want to understand the tools that are here and the tools that coming regarding this type of ai these vids might be a good place to start
how this is being developed and given away and the exponential growth/speed of these tools/models is truly remarkable
emad is a brilliant guy on a mission to level the playing field and opportunity to build/create what he calls models
pushing this to tech to the edge v the middle is a bold move and creativity is about to into warp drive
for better or worse, i also can agree his reasons and concerns are valid
if i were you, i'd search for his conversations and listen carefully
enjoy
