I hope they do some actual science on this before the next presidential press conference.
anecdotal, but... I know a couple people working in healthcare, directly involved with covid. the patients they see the most are the elderly, diabetic and obese...not smokers.
people say the swedes have lost their minds (or their govt policy regarding c19)
behold insanity...
only got half way through, but that's swede's perspective seems a bit off. seems to imply only those who had "months" left to live are dying? not true. many diabetic, overweight people, admittedly not the healthiest, but like have years, decades of life left, are falling very quickly death rate of 0.1%? that may be true, but that's with the measures taken. If we let it spread like the flu no doubt death rate would lower than 5-6%, but still in the low single digits.
we are in the wild west. no one knows much of anything: what's the best approach? what treatments? antibodies? what tests work and do we even need so much testing?... is the cure worse than the disease? a valid question. what i do know is companies like amazon,walmart, kroger, cvs, msft, apple and even exxon...will ultimately be 'winners' as the small and weak get slaughtered.
i watched it twice (or it was playing the background while i was showering, shaving, etc.)
obviously the guy is pretty sharp and he makes some solid points, but he's clearly not politically correct
my opinion is that he might suffer from what a friend calls "industry insensitivity" which causes layman/client shock
it iskind of a callousness with data communication
example for my industry might look like this (assume acct value of 1 mil)
you: during this period your account is down 10%
client: 10%! that is $100,000 dollars!
this probably looks at so much data that he may expresses numbers/percentages matter of factly
where the average joe might see thousands/millions of lives
maybe
I get that. i didnt have a problem with him being insensitive about death rates and who is dying, but that it wasnt accurate still, i think he had a lot of good questions, and points to make...more of this needs to be discussed and debated.
people say the swedes have lost their minds (or their govt policy regarding c19)
behold insanity...
only got half way through, but that's swede's perspective seems a bit off. seems to imply only those who had "months" left to live are dying? not true. many diabetic, overweight people, admittedly not the healthiest, but like have years, decades of life left, are falling very quickly death rate of 0.1%? that may be true, but that's with the measures taken. If we let it spread like the flu no doubt death rate would lower than 5-6%, but still in the low single digits.
we are in the wild west. no one knows much of anything: what's the best approach? what treatments? antibodies? what tests work and do we even need so much testing?... is the cure worse than the disease? a valid question. what i do know is companies like amazon,walmart, kroger, cvs, msft, apple and even exxon...will ultimately be 'winners' as the small and weak get slaughtered.
i watched it twice (or it was playing the background while i was showering, shaving, etc.)
obviously the guy is pretty sharp and he makes some solid points, but he's clearly not politically correct
my opinion is that he might suffer from what a friend calls "industry insensitivity" which causes layman/client shock
it iskind of a callousness with data communication
example for my industry might look like this (assume acct value of 1 mil)
you: during this period your account is down 10%
client: 10%! that is $100,000 dollars!
this probably looks at so much data that he may expresses numbers/percentages matter of factly
where the average joe might see thousands/millions of lives
people say the swedes have lost their minds (or their govt policy regarding c19)
behold insanity...
only got half way through, but that's swede's perspective seems a bit off. seems to imply only those who had "months" left to live are dying? not true. many diabetic, overweight people, admittedly not the healthiest, but like have years, decades of life left, are falling very quickly death rate of 0.1%? that may be true, but that's with the measures taken. If we let it spread like the flu no doubt death rate would lower than 5-6%, but still in the low single digits.
we are in the wild west. no one knows much of anything: what's the best approach? what treatments? antibodies? what tests work and do we even need so much testing?... is the cure worse than the disease? a valid question. what i do know is companies like amazon,walmart, kroger, cvs, msft, apple and even exxon...will ultimately be 'winners' as the small and weak get slaughtered.
Truth is like gold, you have to sift through tons of sh*t to find it.
We all live in a blizzard of lies, behavioural psychology is being used to manipulate us into a constant state of fear. This makes us more impressionable, then Authority Bias is used to direct us in the desired way. The phenomena known as "White Coat Syndrome" is the current tool.
To put things into perspective, look at the total number of deaths in relation to the total population, i.e. deaths/population, then multiply x 100 to gain the percentage value. Even if you use the distorted published death figures, deaths attributed without testing or giving enough weight to previous co-morbidities as allowed in the new regulations, the figure arrived at is still close to a normal seasonal flu outbreak, roughly 0.01 to 0.03%.
Try it yourself, it's an easy bit of maths, whatever your country is the figure is roughly the same, 1 to 3 deaths per 10,000 or 0.01 to 0.03 %. The BBC broadcast a figure of 17 deaths per 100,000 of the UK population last week, that's 0.017%! Most victims have been elderly and/or had co-morbidities, and the death rate is now falling. It is not the Black Death.
This is also reflected in the statement released by Public Health England, the government body responsible for monitoring infectious diseases, on the 19th of March 2020. In this statement they declared that Covid-19, originally classified as a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID) in late 2019, had now been downgraded from the status of HCID to that of a normal infectious disease (akin to the status of the common cold or influenza) after examining it's development in depth. Yet the MSM hysteria continued to grow and government later enacted draconian laws that still continue to disrupt our lives. This pattern of events was similar in virtually every developed nation.
This begs the question "Why would they do this?", i.e. hype it up. In the words of a well known American President, "It's the economy, Stupid!". This is an attempt to reset the world's bankrupt economy in an orderly fashion, complete with the necessary powers to control us under de-facto martial law, disguised as a medical emergency. As Naomi Kline describes it, "Shock Doctrine". Trans-National financiers now have enough resources to collectively attempt this, it is the ultimate goal of their globalisation plan.
In the 2018 financial crisis they put a gun to the heads of all the world's central banks to bail them out. For 12 years they have used many trillions of dollars/pounds/euros etc given to them by the central banks to vacuum up the worlds assets. They are the Men Who Stole The World and now they think they own us all. They have corrupted all the politicians, military and professions worldwide, with a few notable exceptions soon to be dealt with, in preparation for this. How? As Caesar said, "I stuffed their mouths with gold.". Those who were/are uncompliant were/are blackmailed/framed/fired/ etc., even murdered.
The public relations arm of this financial cartel are fond of expounding the merits of the "Free Market", a concept developed by the father of modern Economic Theory, Adam Smith, in his treatise on the origin of The Wealth of Nations. They quote him often, but the one quote they never use, which is pivotal to his theory that markets must be regulated to drive out corruption, is "Wherever Merchants gather together in secret, they conspire against the Public Good."
I guess Adam Smith would be branded a "Conspiracy Theorist" these days too?
Don't be afraid, it's what they want. Question everything, "Cui Bono?"- Who Benefits? Reason will triumph over emotion, eventually.
Stop - right - there. I called it a trend. I referred to the change of direction as a peak, yet it is only a trend. A trend is defined as a general direction in which something is developing or changing and nothing more. Trends are things that are changing and fleeting and can be short lived. Yet they are recognizable as an entity that can be measured.
I thought that it was a good thing to recognize, this measurable change in direction. There are actual numbers. Will it last ? I dunno, but it is the first sign of things actually improving where there has been none before now. Sure there are always mitigating circumstances, but it is nice to recognize an improvement in the overall outlook once in a while, imho.
So go ahead and be a Debbie Downer; there never is any good news in your world.
have a dreary day ... if that is what makes you happy.
"So go ahead and be a Debbie Downer; there never is any good news in your world."
LOOK: You REGULARLY Bitch and whine about how people here don't respect you and attack you and don't listen to you. And yet you throw just as much crap if not more. You REGULARLY snark and go out of your way to antagonize in your posts. So I call BS on your f%%ing attitude and self-pitying. You behave worse than just about anyone in this forum.
Debbie Downer? No. I prefer to deal in reality. You seem to fixate on these overall infection and death numbers as if slight declines in them indicate that there's a definite downward trend. You apparently fail to consider that changes in the percentage of population that get tested will cause those numbers to fluctuate independently of any change in the lethality of the virus or improvement in medical treatments. Changes in the definition of death rate as percentage of number of infected people are going to cause that percentage to change.
You also apparently fail to consider that we don't fully understand the nature and duration of immunity of this coronavirus or the changes in an infected person's ability to infect others.
Frankly, I don't know where you stand on loosening quarantine requirements because I don't read your posts very much anymore. They're not worth my time. But I'll say this: if Governors start to open their states by May 1 as they apparently want to do, we're going to see a second wave of infections that will wipe out ANY downward trend in infections and deaths and severely test our hospitals and medical staff. I quoted an epidemiologist from Harvard in an earlier post who predicted that by June, only 5% of Americans will have been infected by the coronavirus. That leaves most of the population susceptible to a second wave of infections. Changes in infection and death rates are not just a matter new of treatments and health care systems helping people survive. It's also a matter of the accuracy of our counting and the policies we have in place to keep new infections down.
You look at these big-picture numbers and AFAICT can't even provide evidence that weekly changes are statistically significant. AFAICT you want good news on this issue but can't be arsed to look at reality.
" I referred to the change of direction as a peak, yet it is only a trend."
So you said at one point that the change of direction was a peak but now you're saying that it's only a trend? Guess what: I don't give a f#ck.
Remember how you ranted on and on about Ezekiel Emanuel and how he didn't understand IVs and how that led you to dismiss his opinions entirely? Your unswerving support of Trump, who reaches new levels of incompetence and separation from reality almost daily, destroys any faith I might ever have had in your understanding of the world in general.
Enjoy your lifetime 1st-class pass on the Trump Train:
I've been watching these trends and they are finally beginning to reverse. .
CLOSED CASES
928,844
Cases which had an outcome:
739,971 (80%)
Recovered / Discharged
188,873 (20%)
Deaths
It was down to 79% and 21% (the peak) respectively for several weeks.
ACTIVE CASES
1,769,677
Currently Infected Patients
1,711,657 (97%)
in Mild Condition
58,020 (3%)
Serious or Critical
Previously it was 95% and 5% (also the peak) respectively for the same several weeks.
I don't see a 20% death rate as particularly good news. Yes a 1% drop is nice when you are talking almost a million cases. Probably in the uncertainties when amalgamating information from many sources with changing protocols for diagnosing cases.
ETA: sorry to be Debbie Downer. Good news is good. I just worry about people's tendency to take good news as an excuse to make bad decisions.
We already know that many get infected and can transmit, yet feel nothing and never know they were infected.
How do you deal with that ?
We can't stop someone who doesn't feel anything...unless you work backward and locate the source(s) of their exposure.
Assume we had lunch on Monday (at 6 feet of course)...and today I tested positive (after feeling sorta off...nothing major)...I would tell you and you would get tested. You find out you're positive and quarantine...no symptoms ever... but stopped from spreading. The reality is that most people will test negative. When we get to 98% negative results, we'll be back to a point where the economy and businesses can run near full tilt.
The trick is that you have to be able to test quickly and easily...not wait in line for 6 hours to be told you don't meet CDC requirements for the limited number of tests available (we're saving those for the people on ventilators).
