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Proclivities

Proclivities Avatar

Location: Paris of the Piedmont
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 11, 2020 - 5:33am



 kurtster wrote:

I have never said that was not true, nor am I pretending otherwise.

Just trying to keep things straight.  Things are bad enough without having to make up stuff to cause further undue panic and fear.

FWIW, that famous red line on the charts representing ICU capacities in the USA we have all seen ?  To the best of my knowledge we have not crossed that line yet here in the USA with need exceeding that capacity and by the looks of things, we won't.  Still too early to be certain but things are trending that way already.  That is great news in my mind.

 
There is nothing "made-up" or fabricated in that graphic that I could see.  I posted it somewhat as a counter point to that Tucker Carlson clip further down in the thread (which I know you did not post).  In it, Carlson seems to want to downplay the severity of COVID 19, basing his opinion on the latest mortality projections (which he repeatedly and incorrectly refers to as "predictions"), and compares them to the average mortality rates for the leading causes of death in the US (heart disease, cancer, suicide, etc.), repeatedly referring to what he calls "the truth".  Meanwhile, he ignores the data which show that for the last week or so COVID 19 appears to have been the leading cause of death in the United States.  He also ignores the likelihood that the outbreak has yet to reach its peak and speaks of the outbreak as if it's over.  I am not engaging or fear-mongering or interested in furthering such a thing; I don't think that was the point of that graphic either.  As SirD points out below: "The virus does not exist for us to score points against one another, it should bring us together."
sirdroseph

sirdroseph Avatar

Location: Not here, I tell you wat
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 11, 2020 - 4:04am



 BlueHeronDruid wrote:


 R_P wrote:

It's also BS.

There is no law or mathematical rule that says you can't mix daily averages with a daily total in a graph or animation (as long as it's clearly labelled as such).

Do tell, math genius, what is the average daily death toll for COVID-19?
 
I guess I saw the illustration and understood what it was conveying.

Mostly it's showing how our medical resources have been challenged in the past five weeks or so. Where resources have to go. I thought it was pretty clear.


 

That is what it should  mean, but sadly this human tragedy is being viewed mostly through the prism of politics and strategy by too many instead of recognizing it for what it is, simply a human tragedy that should be approached with unity on an individual level without the taint and agenda of political strategy.  This thread is a microcosm of how we have been herded into 2 camps and whipped into a volatile and angry frenzy that wholly encapsulates our entire lives and thought processes.  The virus does not exist for us to score points against one another, it should bring us together.

haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 11, 2020 - 12:03am



 kurtster wrote:

I have never said that was not true, nor am I pretending otherwise.

Just trying to keep things straight.  Things are bad enough without having to make up stuff to cause further undue panic and fear.

FWIW, that famous red line on the charts representing ICU capacities in the USA we have all seen ?  To the best of my knowledge we have not crossed that line yet here in the USA with need exceeding that capacity and by the looks of things, we won't.  Still too early to be certain but things are trending that way already.  That is great news in my mind.


 
Guess what, the US isn't homogenous and the infection is ramping up in different places at different times. Try telling the medical professionals in New York City hospitals that the capacity hasn't been exceeded. Oh and ICU beds is only one metric of treatment capacity. There are the number of doctors, nurses, and other staff who are getting sick and dying. And that's a system failure no matter how many beds there are.

haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 11, 2020 - 12:00am



 kurtster wrote:

What would your grade be if your presented that chart in a Statistics class ?
 
I would have no problem if the statistician working for me presented this for the reasons I explained. And he, I am sure would have no problem presenting it. It compares daily to daily rates. Just some of the rates are determined from past data. Do you really think the picture would be significantly different if they had data tabulated daily for each disease? Hint, it might be noisier, as is the COVID data but it wouldn't change the point that Covid is overtaking any other cause of death in the USA *right now*.

The question is, why is your butt so in a twist by that fact? 

AliGator

AliGator Avatar



Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 10:12pm

This is gutting. (I think they lifted the paywall for this.)
kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 9:34pm



 kurtster wrote:

I have never said that was not true, nor am I pretending otherwise.

Just trying to keep things straight.  Things are bad enough without having to make up stuff to cause further undue panic and fear.

FWIW, that famous red line on the charts representing ICU capacities in the USA we have all seen ?  To the best of my knowledge we have not crossed that line yet here in the USA with need exceeding that capacity and by the looks of things, we won't.  Still too early to be certain but things are trending that way already.  That is great news in my mind.

 
I'm not sure what you're basing your projection on. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I think it may be too soon to make a call either way on this matter. 

I've linked to an WashPo article that makes projections about the percentages of Americans who live in areas that may not be able to provide hospital care for the projected number of Covid19 patients. According to an ICU physician quoted in the article, we don't have a strong idea of how many ICU beds we have in the country. 

You should actually view the WashPo piece because it contains graphics that I can't copy into this RP Forum page. 

I've also linked to a NYT article pointing out that while the daily death rate may peak on April 16, it may rise again when we relax social distancing. It also says that data suggests that case fatality rates may be rising over time, and that the US may be experiencing a higher rate of lethality than was measured in South Korea and other countries. 




Take a look at this WashPo article.  

One of the charts embedded in the article shows that 30% of Americans live in areas where the number of patients could overwhelm the number of ICU beds. 


76 million adults, or 30 percent of the U.S. adult population, live where patients could overwhelm intensive-care beds
.

Almost 17 million adults, or 6.5 percent of the U.S. adult population, live in communities where covid-19 patients could overwhelm hospital beds, needing more than all available.

125 million adults, or 48 percent of the U.S. adult population, live where virus patients could overwhelm the supply of mechanical ventilators. Those breathing machines are among the key hospital resources that can help patients facing death when the disease attacks their lungs.





The text accompanying the charts:

If a health official wanted to know how many intensive-care beds there are in the United States, Jeremy Kahn would be the person to ask. The ICU physician and researcher at the University of Pittsburgh earns a living studying critical-care resources in U.S. hospitals.

Yet even Kahn can’t give a definitive answer. His best estimate is based on Medicare data gathered three years ago.

“People are sort of in disbelief that even I don’t know how many ICU beds exist in each hospital in the United States,” he said, noting that reporting varies hospital to hospital, state to state. “And I’m sort of like, ‘Yep, the research community has been dealing with this problem for years.’ ”

Amid the covid-19 pandemic, pinpointing the number and location of ICU beds, ventilators and doctors with specialized training is critical for local, state and federal officials trying to forge an effective response. But the pandemic has revealed a dearth of reliable data about the key parts of the nation’s health-care system now under assault. That leaves decision-makers operating in the dark as the virus — which has now killed more than 16,000 people in the United States — surges, spreading from urban areas like New York City and New Orleans into the rest of America.

Given the limitations, The Washington Post assembled data to analyze the availability of the critical-care resources needed to treat severely ill patients who require extended hospitalization. The Post conducted a stress test of sorts on available resources, which revealed a patchwork of possible preparedness shortcomings in cities and towns where the full force of the virus has yet to hit and where people may not be following isolation and social distancing orders.



Here's the NYT piece: 



Third, while we can bend the curve, it will bend back when we relax our social distancing.

This is more bad news, for many people seem to believe that once we get through this grim month or two, the nightmare will be over. But the virus is resilient, and health experts warn that this may be just the first wave of what may be many waves of infections until we get a vaccine sometime in 2021.

Already, Japan after initial success is seeing a surge of infections, while China and South Korea have struggled with imported infections; that seems inevitable as economies restart and travel resumes.

“There’s this biological fact that still in South Korea, the people who haven’t been infected aren’t immune, and as soon as there’s an end to social distancing they’ll be vulnerable again,” noted Dr. Mark Poznansky of Harvard Medical School.

The same is true in the United States.

“We’re just looking at this first wave,” noted Dr. Murray. He estimates that in June, some 95 percent of Americans will still be susceptible to the virus.

“The world’s on fire with this virus,” said Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, and this means that even if one country succeeds in putting out the blaze, sparks will keep arriving from elsewhere to cause new outbreaks. He added: “I think the transmission will continue to occur for some time.”





Lazy8

Lazy8 Avatar

Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 9:25pm

kurtster wrote:
1. I have never said that was not true, nor am I pretending otherwise.

Just trying to keep things straight.  Things are bad enough without having to make up stuff to cause further undue panic and fear.

2.
FWIW, that famous red line on the charts representing ICU capacities in the USA we have all seen ?  To the best of my knowledge we have not crossed that line yet here in the USA with need exceeding that capacity and by the looks of things, we won't.  Still too early to be certain but things are trending that way already.  That is great news in my mind.

1.
Then what is your point, exactly? What is difficult to understand about the current situation or the way the animation presents it?

2. Staying below that line is the result of hard work and sacrifice on the parts of a lot of people, but this story ain't over yet. There's still time for this to get a lot worse. It's also clear that there are people who don't deserve any thanks for this, people who denied it was a problem or claimed it was a hoax or that it wasn't any worse than a seasonal flu. When you deny it's a problem you don't get credit for solving it.

kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 8:46pm

 Lazy8 wrote:

C-19 is a crisis. It's killing a lot of people. Quit pretending it isn't.
 
I have never said that was not true, nor am I pretending otherwise.

Just trying to keep things straight.  Things are bad enough without having to make up stuff to cause further undue panic and fear.

FWIW, that famous red line on the charts representing ICU capacities in the USA we have all seen ?  To the best of my knowledge we have not crossed that line yet here in the USA with need exceeding that capacity and by the looks of things, we won't.  Still too early to be certain but things are trending that way already.  That is great news in my mind.

R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 8:38pm

 kurtster wrote:
A) We do not yet have an annual average, your math genius majesty.

So what exactly is your point ?
 
Then (at this point in time) you can't make an animation or a graph that only employs annual averages. So unfair!

It would also be a very boring animation, because nothing would move/change, except for the date...
Lazy8

Lazy8 Avatar

Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 8:36pm

kurtster wrote:
What would your grade be if your presented that chart in a Statistics class ?


I would hope the homework is harder than this in any stats class.

It represents the instantaneous death rate, a perfectly legitimate thing to look at. There are things you could normalize it to (population, say) but they wouldn't change the ranking or the meaning.

You use sliding averages (5 year averages or 10 day averages or some such) to smooth out noisy data and make trends visible, but this data isn't noisy and the curves don't need to be smoothed. Annualized rates aren't legitimate until you have at least a year's worth of data.

C-19 is a crisis. It's killing a lot of people. Quit pretending it isn't.
R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 8:32pm

 BlueHeronDruid wrote:
 R_P wrote:
It's also BS.

There is no law or mathematical rule that says you can't mix daily averages with a daily total in a graph or animation (as long as it's clearly labelled as such).

Do tell, math genius, what is the average daily death toll for COVID-19?
 
I guess I saw the illustration and understood what it was conveying.

Mostly it's showing how our medical resources have been challenged in the past five weeks or so. Where resources have to go. I thought it was pretty clear.
 
It's just an animation that combines daily snapshots of the (best) known death toll of COVID-19 with other daily disease death toll averages.

Whenever the yellow bar (the daily total) moves up on a particular day (and stays up) you can conclude that more people died of COVID-19 on that day than people who had the disease right beneath it (on average). As it moves all the way to the top, there are obviously more daily COVID-19 deaths than there are daily deaths of heart disease (again on average). As far as diseases go, it's the top killer for that day.

You can also conclude, when it's reached the top, that a whole lot of people die (if you'd add up all the bars of averages) every day of diseases (again on average). For now, still way more than COVID-19...
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 8:25pm

 haresfur wrote:


 kurtster wrote:

If you look at the chart properly, the CV 19 numbers are the daily death toll for a particular day.  You see the numbers rise and fall as the chart loads and animates.  They are not an average of anything. The do not represent a rate or average of anything, while the rest of the chart does.  It is entirely misleading.  The rest of the chart does have daily averages.  As I mentioned, if the annual death toll for CV 19 was 60,000, the the daily average death toll for CV 19 is 164.  That is 60,000 divided by 365.  Far different from the 1900 ± as the chart would have you think.  You have evidently been completely fooled by this chart and what you think it is supposed to represent.

This is basic high school math.
 
It is perfectly legitimate. 

 
What would your grade be if your presented that chart in a Statistics class ?
haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 8:22pm



 BlueHeronDruid wrote:


 R_P wrote:

It's also BS.

There is no law or mathematical rule that says you can't mix daily averages with a daily total in a graph or animation (as long as it's clearly labelled as such).

Do tell, math genius, what is the average daily death toll for COVID-19?
 
I guess I saw the illustration and understood what it was conveying.

Mostly it's showing how our medical resources have been challenged in the past five weeks or so. Where resources have to go. I thought it was pretty clear.

 
That's just crazy talk!

kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 8:13pm

 R_P wrote:
 kurtster wrote:

If you look at the chart properly, the CV 19 numbers are the daily death toll for a particular day.  You see the numbers rise and fall as the chart loads and animates.  They are not an average of anything. The do not represent a rate or average of anything, while the rest of the chart does.  It is entirely misleading.  The rest of the chart does have daily averages.  As I mentioned, if the annual death toll for CV 19 was 60,000, the the daily average death toll for CV 19 is 164.  That is 60,000 divided by 365.  Far different from the 1900 ± as the chart would have you think.  You have evidently been completely fooled by this chart and what you think it is supposed to represent.

This is basic high school math.
 
It's also BS.

B) There is no law or mathematical rule that says you can't mix daily averages with a daily total in a graph or animation (as long as it's clearly labelled as such).

A) Do tell, math genius, what is the average daily death toll for COVID-19?
 
  A) We do not yet have an annual average, your math genius majesty.

But if you take the total numbers from January 15, when the first case was officially diagnosed to today ...

That would be 102,566 deaths divided by 87 days.  That daily average during this time period is 1179.  And that number is for the whole world.  

That would make it the third highest on the list and well below heart disease and cancer with 1774 and 1641 respectively.  But these are averages based on 365 days, not 87.

The USA average would be 18,637 divided by 87 days for a daily average of 214.
.
Or eighth highest on the USA list after diabetes ...

B)  the chart was not clearly labeled or did I miss that somewhere ?  It is not standard procedure to mix these kinds of facts to make a valid conclusion such as what the chart claimed to represent.

So what exactly is your point ?
BlueHeronDruid

BlueHeronDruid Avatar

Location: planting flowers


Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 8:04pm



 R_P wrote:

It's also BS.

There is no law or mathematical rule that says you can't mix daily averages with a daily total in a graph or animation (as long as it's clearly labelled as such).

Do tell, math genius, what is the average daily death toll for COVID-19?
 
I guess I saw the illustration and understood what it was conveying.

Mostly it's showing how our medical resources have been challenged in the past five weeks or so. Where resources have to go. I thought it was pretty clear.

haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 7:51pm



 kurtster wrote:

If you look at the chart properly, the CV 19 numbers are the daily death toll for a particular day.  You see the numbers rise and fall as the chart loads and animates.  They are not an average of anything. The do not represent a rate or average of anything, while the rest of the chart does.  It is entirely misleading.  The rest of the chart does have daily averages.  As I mentioned, if the annual death toll for CV 19 was 60,000, the the daily average death toll for CV 19 is 164.  That is 60,000 divided by 365.  Far different from the 1900 Â± as the chart would have you think.  You have evidently been completely fooled by this chart and what you think it is supposed to represent.

This is basic high school math.
 
It is perfectly legitimate. The other diseases have well established statistical averages so you don't need to calculate the actual value for each day. They are essentially constant and the daily variability will be essentially random noise. There will be seasonal variability in some but that's not the point. What the chart does is exactly what you say it does - it shows how rapidly the daily values of COVID-19 deaths are increasing so that they are higher than the expected daily values for each other disease (as estimated from the average daily value, which is well known). It does not purport to estimate what the annual death toll will be. That number depends on whether people get their shit together and start taking it seriously.

R_P

R_P Avatar



Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 7:50pm

 kurtster wrote:

If you look at the chart properly, the CV 19 numbers are the daily death toll for a particular day.  You see the numbers rise and fall as the chart loads and animates.  They are not an average of anything. The do not represent a rate or average of anything, while the rest of the chart does.  It is entirely misleading.  The rest of the chart does have daily averages.  As I mentioned, if the annual death toll for CV 19 was 60,000, the the daily average death toll for CV 19 is 164.  That is 60,000 divided by 365.  Far different from the 1900 Â± as the chart would have you think.  You have evidently been completely fooled by this chart and what you think it is supposed to represent.

This is basic high school math.
 
It's also BS.

There is no law or mathematical rule that says you can't mix daily averages with a daily total in a graph or animation (as long as it's clearly labelled as such).

Do tell, math genius, what is the average daily death toll for COVID-19?
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 7:46pm

Total Recovered
376,200
Isabeau

Isabeau Avatar

Location: sou' tex
Gender: Female


Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 7:33pm



 BlueHeronDruid wrote:


 kurtster wrote:

If you look at the chart properly, ....

This is basic high school math.
 

Ah, so averages interspersed with actual live numbers. I got that. As a chart it fails. As an illustration of reality, it's quite effective.
 


Isabeau

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Location: sou' tex
Gender: Female


Posted: Apr 10, 2020 - 7:32pm



 Coaxial wrote:

Do you always feel the need to come across like a condescending douche bag? That was the reason for my wow. Sad and ever so tiresome.
 


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