Location: Half inch above the K/T boundary Gender:
Posted:
Sep 18, 2021 - 7:33am
rhahl wrote:
I didn't see anything wrong with your numbers other than that they were beside my point, which was that the U.S. Covid situation is the worst in the world and getting worster every day, since everybody else's numbers are decreasing or flat while ours are rising exponentially.
Democrats can and will argue all the way to election day that it was not their fault the delta strain fooled them. They will still look like fools. And Republicans will say: See, Democrats in power don't care about people any more than we do, so why vote for them? That will energize the R base and depress the D turnout. Trump only lost by 42,000 votes in three states, and Biden's Covid performance is making Trump look good.
What?
That is so many ways an incorrect statement. Had Trump, instead of politicizing the issue, simply said in early 2020 something like..."let's let the CDC and NIH drive our policy" we would likely be in a much different condition today. Think how effective vaccination would be had it not become this "tribal issue". Biden has done a very commendable job in dealing with the pandemic, imo.
Location: Perched on the precipice of the cauldron of truth
Posted:
Sep 18, 2021 - 7:27am
rhahl wrote:
I didn't see anything wrong with your numbers other than that they were beside my point, which was that the U.S. Covid situation is the worst in the world and getting worster every day, since everybody else's numbers are decreasing or flat while ours are rising exponentially.
Democrats can and will argue all the way to election day that it was not their fault the delta strain fooled them. They will still look like fools. And Republicans will say: See, Democrats in power don't care about people any more than we do, so why vote for them? That will energize the R base and depress the D turnout. Trump only lost by 42,000 votes in three states, and Biden's Covid performance is making Trump look good.
What do you think the Biden administration has failed to do regarding COVID-19 response that would have made a difference?
Hey there was more in my post and I wrote it all for you so go read it for Christ’s sake. Don’t just come say the same damn thing that made me write it in the first place.
I didn't see anything wrong with your numbers other than that they were beside my point, which was that the U.S. Covid situation is the worst in the world and getting worster every day, since everybody else's numbers are decreasing or flat while ours are rising exponentially.
Democrats can and will argue all the way to election day that it was not their fault the delta strain fooled them. They will still look like fools. And Republicans will say: See, Democrats in power don't care about people any more than we do, so why vote for them? That will energize the R base and depress the D turnout. Trump only lost by 42,000 votes in three states, and Biden's Covid performance is making Trump look good.
There's now more COVID to go around (with some asymptomatic vaccinated people) and it has had time to get to more places. A surge is a surge is a surge (see quotes). Vaccinated people are less likely to die (which was the whole point). A fair amount of people have been vaccinated. Before vaccinations began all deaths were among the unvaccinated.
The current rate looks slower than the initial outbreak and similar to the winter rate. At no point do the charts reach zero.
Also, I'll bet the newer, more deadly strain becoming the predominant virus has something to do with it, too, as well.
Again, the question is why is the death rate higher among the unvaccinated now then before vaccinations began.
There's now more COVID to go around (with some asymptomatic vaccinated people) and it has had time to get to more places. A surge is a surge is a surge (see quotes). Vaccinated people are less likely to die (which was the whole point). A fair amount of people have been vaccinated. Before vaccinations began all deaths were among the unvaccinated.
The current rate looks slower than the initial outbreak and similar to the winter rate. At no point do the charts reach zero.
Delta, originally detected in India and first diagnosed in the United States in March, rapidly replaced other variants to become dominant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates delta is responsible for more than 8 in 10 new cases.
Another major contributor, epidemiologists said: Relaxing precautions, such as no longer wearing masks or engaging in social distancing. That probably includes behavior even among the vaccinated, Columbia University epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman said.
Shaman suspects cases among vaccinated people, known as breakthrough infections, are much higher than official tallies indicate. That could be because vaccinated people are less likely to get tested. Or they may be apt to dismiss a mild case of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, as simply the sniffles. “The central issue is that people want to put the pandemic and the virus behind them,” he said, offering as examples unmasked crowds packed into bars and ballparks.
Again, the question is why is the
death rateamong the unvaccinated
higher now than before vaccinations began ?
That is the information that Scott presented. Or did I misinterpret it ?
I do not know how I can make the question any simpler. Perhaps I only think that I am typing in English.
I guess that I really am the stupidest person here since no one understands anything I say anymore.
Delta, originally detected in India and first diagnosed in the United States in March, rapidly replaced other variants to become dominant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates delta is responsible for more than 8 in 10 new cases.
Another major contributor, epidemiologists said: Relaxing precautions, such as no longer wearing masks or engaging in social distancing. That probably includes behavior even among the vaccinated, Columbia University epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman said.
Shaman suspects cases among vaccinated people, known as breakthrough infections, are much higher than official tallies indicate. That could be because vaccinated people are less likely to get tested. Or they may be apt to dismiss a mild case of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, as simply the sniffles.
âThe central issue is that people want to put the pandemic and the virus behind them,â he said, offering as examples unmasked crowds packed into bars and ballparks.
Some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous variants in unvaccinatedpeople.
In two different studies from Canada and Scotland, patients infected with the Delta variant were more likely to be hospitalized than patients
infected with Alpha or the original virus that causes COVID-19. Even so, the vast majority of hospitalization and death caused by COVID-19
are in unvaccinated people.
That the death rate of the unvaccinated has basically doubled over that time is profound. Why is that ? What has changed that much ? Something sure as hell has. Either you get infected or you don't when talking purely about the unvaccinated. What has caused this change is the real relevant question, to me anyway.
Fewer lockdowns. More gatherings. Possibly fewer precautions (like masks) for some...
Miss. That pertains to why you might get infected. Not why you are going to die from it.
That the death rate of the unvaccinated has basically doubled over that time is profound. Why is that ? What has changed that much ? Something sure as hell has. Either you get infected or you don't when talking purely about the unvaccinated. What has caused this change is the real relevant question, to me anyway.
Fewer lockdowns. More gatherings. Possibly fewer precautions (like masks) for some...
Let's do some quick math (smart people shudder at the thought of Scott doing math, but oh well). At the peak of the pandemic, we were losing over 4000 souls a day, pre-vaccination, so 4000x365=1,460,000 annually out of 330 million =1 in 226 of us would die at that rate But there are around 75 million children who were, at that time, not dying of covid and not eligible for vaccines anyway. So that's 255 million vax eligible people meaning the covid was killing 1 in 175 of us annually at that rate.
Pre-vaccine covid killed us at an annual rate of 1 in 175 (ballpark) at the winter peak of the pandemic
Current daily death rate 1870x365=682,550 dying in a year at the current rate. BUT about 70million are unvaccinated adults. 1 in 20 of the deaths are vaccinated (ballpark number from memory, probably fewer), so 95% of 682,550=648,420, 5%=34,100 roughly
330 total population 75 kids, 70 unvax leaves 185million vaccinated
Post vaccine covid is killing at an annual rate of 1 in 108 among the unvaccinated and an annual rate of 1 in 5,425 among the vaccinated. (today's numbers as shown in this graph)
Corrections to my calculations welcome.
ScottFromWyoming wrote:
Hey there was more in my post and I wrote it all for you so go read it for Christ’s sake. Don’t just come say the same damn thing that made me write it in the first place.
Ok. Well pre vaccine, the virus was much different for starters, far less contagious than the current mutations. Also you (and no one else for that matter) make no considerations for those who have been infected and survived among the unvaccinated in your numbers. One could also dispute just exactly how many deaths are due solely to covid. That has been an issue from day one. That could significantly change the pre and post vaccine rates. Also you eliminated children in the pre vax numbers Your numbers also presume a static unchanging death rate.
As you can see above rates vary by location as well.
With all that is above, my summary assuming that your numbers are correct is that there is something drastically different going on since the pre vax days and now. That the death rate of the unvaccinated has basically doubled over that time is profound. Why is that ? What has changed that much ? Something sure as hell has. Either you get infected or you don't when talking purely about the unvaccinated. What has caused this change is the real relevant question, to me anyway.
This graph represents a death rate of about 650,000/yr and climbing. If you think our vaccine-only plan is going to turn this around, I have some carbon offset credits to sell you.
I can see Democrats loosing 60 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate.
Who's dying?
Americans. Worst in the world right now. The vaccine-only plan was a bust. We might even get Trump back.
Hey there was more in my post and I wrote it all for you so go read it for Christ’s sake. Don’t just come say the same damn thing that made me write it in the first place.
The official policy here is more or less to start opening up at 70-80% fully vaccinated. I say more or less because there is a lot of disagreement on the details and whether it depends on the number of cases in the wild. Right now the country as a whole is at 45% fully vaccinated and 70% one dose for age 16 and over, but there are big differences between states. And the indigenous population is lagging.
This graph represents a death rate of about 650,000/yr and climbing. If you think our vaccine-only plan is going to turn this around, I have some carbon offset credits to sell you.
I can see Democrats loosing 60 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate.
Who's dying?
Americans. Worst in the world right now. The vaccine-only plan was a bust. We might even get Trump back.
This graph represents a death rate of about 650,000/yr and climbing. If you think our vaccine-only plan is going to turn this around, I have some carbon offset credits to sell you.
I can see Democrats loosing 60 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate.
Who's dying?
Let's do some quick math (smart people shudder at the thought of Scott doing math, but oh well). At the peak of the pandemic, we were losing over 4000 souls a day, pre-vaccination, so 4000x365=1,460,000 annually out of 330 million =1 in 226 of us would die at that rate But there are around 75 million children who were, at that time, not dying of covid and not eligible for vaccines anyway. So that's 255 million vax eligible people meaning the covid was killing 1 in 175 of us annually at that rate.
Pre-vaccine covid killed us at an annual rate of 1 in 175 (ballpark) at the winter peak of the pandemic
Current daily death rate 1870x365=682,550 dying in a year at the current rate. BUT about 70million are unvaccinated adults. 1 in 20 of the deaths are vaccinated (ballpark number from memory, probably fewer), so 95% of 682,550=648,420, 5%=34,100 roughly
330 total population 75 kids, 70 unvax leaves 185million vaccinated
Post vaccine covid is killing at an annual rate of 1 in 108 among the unvaccinated and an annual rate of 1 in 5,425 among the vaccinated. (today's numbers as shown in this graph)
This graph represents a death rate of about 650,000/yr and climbing. If you think our vaccine-only plan is going to turn this around, I have some carbon offset credits to sell you.
I can see Democrats loosing 60 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate.
So you can't say that the Right isn't willing to die for a cause or country.
The overwhelming majority of deaths are unvaccinated people, and the overwhelming majority of the unvaccinated are conservative / Republican.
It only makes sense that the right will blame Democrats for A) attempting to force everyone to get vaccinated, and then B) a high death toll that could have been 10 times less had those "proudly independent" Americans been vaccinated.
Make up your mind with the argument you support... vaccination or death... and then explain how you blame the Dems the 650K rate right now?
This graph represents a death rate of about 650,000/yr and climbing. If you think our vaccine-only plan is going to turn this around, I have some carbon offset credits to sell you.
I can see Democrats loosing 60 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate.
Also: we have a lot of vaccine going unused right now that will probably expire before the end of the year, so what the hell.
Especially for the most vulnerable, many who could likely benefit from a booster shot given the time that has passed since their first shot(s).
It would be nice to shower poor, developing countries with millions of doses, yet many are constrained by infrastructure. More than just vaccines is required to increase vaccine availability.
I am confident that the world's major powers will compete for hearts and minds (as well as favours like procurement contracts) by trying to out-give each other in vaccine diplomacy. Somewhere in the background, NGOs should be helping to fill in some of the infrastructure needs. It will happen, just slower than most would prefer.