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Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » 2020 Elections Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
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miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 15, 2018 - 4:37am

 Proclivities wrote:

If you right click and open the link in an "incognito" or "private" window (Chrome or Firefox), the page should open without the paywall.

 
thx

i don't mind paying for something as long as i can see the value

radioparadise - yes

amazon prime - yes

wapo - not so much

Proclivities

Proclivities Avatar

Location: Paris of the Piedmont
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 15, 2018 - 3:38am

 Steely_D wrote:

Paywall. No thanks.

 
If you right click and open the link in an "incognito" or "private" window (Chrome or Firefox), the page should open without the paywall.
kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Nov 14, 2018 - 9:58pm

 Steely_D wrote:

Paywall. No thanks.

 
Paywalls are slowly becoming the norm. I think Amazon Prime members can get a very good deal on WashPo digital access, though. There's also the trick of flushing your browser's cache from time to time and/or trying to access the article by googling the title of the article and clicking on the provided link. 
I  have a subscription to WashPo, however, so I'll just try to provide the meaty bits: 


 Trump’s big 2020 problem: The economy could be in recession
...

Trump is presiding over the best economy in a generation, with strong growth and abundant job opportunities, but it wasn’t enough to prevent midterm losses for his party. Trump suffered the worst midterm performance in the House for a Republican president since 1974, in the aftermath of Watergate.

After adjusting for economic and stock market strength, it was the worst midterm performance for a president’s party in a century, according to Michael Cembalest of JPMorgan Asset and Wealth Management. “Based on the hand the GOP started with, they should probably have been able to retain the House. Sometimes, however, money can’t buy you love,” Cembalest wrote in a research note.

Most economists are predicting that the economy will be weaker — or even in a recession — by the time voters go to the polls in 2020. For Trump and the GOP, the economy was probably a tail wind in these midterms, but it could turn into a substantial head wind by then.


...


Pessimism is growing on Wall Street about future prospects for earnings and the economy. More than a third of top economic forecasters now predict a U.S. recession in 2020, according to the latest Blue Chip forecast, and 44 percent of fund managers in the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey expect global growth to slow in the next year, the worst outlook for the world economy since November 2008.

The list of head winds is expanding: higher borrowing costs, a strong dollar, a weakening global economy, an escalating tariff war, and fading fiscal stimulus from the tax cuts and extra government spending.

“Our forecast has stalling — that is, zero growth quarter on quarter — in the first half of 2020,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients. “Gravity can’t be defied forever.”

What business leaders and Wall Street investors want is a swift resolution to the U.S.-China trade war and possibly an infrastructure bill to infuse more cash into the economy late next year, just as the boost from the giant tax cuts passed last year fades. They want dealmaker Trump to come back with force in 2019.
But so far, Trump has been on the defensive, ramping up criticism of likely new House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for stalling his agenda and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell, Trump’s own appointee, for raising interest rates too quickly, the president says, and dampening growth.


...

For now, Trump’s economic advisers say the president’s reelection prospects are strong. The White House is projecting 3 percent growth for years to come, a contrast to most independent forecasters, who think the economy will slow to around 2 percent growth by 2020 or possibly dip into a recession.

...


But even an infrastructure bill might not be enough to lift the economy after it has grown for almost a decade and as people look for signs of stress in anticipation of a downturn. The GOP tax cuts were supposed to spur a boom in business investment, but that came in at less than 1 percent in the third quarter of this year, a surprise to the White House.

Housing is already experiencing a slowdown as mortgage rates move higher and buyers dry up.

“There are early signs of a slowing economy already. Housing is a yellow light,” said Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale, who predicts a recession in 2020. “If businesses pull back a little next year and hiring slows down, consumers will start to feel it. And then it’s a vicious cycle: Business pull back and consumers pull back until the economy falls into a recession.”


ScottN

ScottN Avatar

Location: Half inch above the K/T boundary
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 14, 2018 - 8:28pm

This may become interesting if he gains even a little traction:
 



Steely_D

Steely_D Avatar

Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 14, 2018 - 7:39pm

 aflanigan wrote: 
Paywall. No thanks.
haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 14, 2018 - 6:02pm

 Steely_D wrote:

It's the fear of the Democrats investigating me! Make them stop or the economy goes in the dumper.

Buy this magazine or we'll kill this dog.

 
Best cover ever
Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar



Posted: Nov 14, 2018 - 5:00pm

 aflanigan wrote: 
Of course it will be; and it will be Donnie and his minions fault. Just like all previous Rethuglican administrations. Don't tax, just spend! Especially on wars!
Steely_D

Steely_D Avatar

Location: Biscayne Bay
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 14, 2018 - 4:57pm

 haresfur wrote:

It's not my fault! The economy is doing this to me!

 
It's the fear of the Democrats investigating me! Make them stop or the economy goes in the dumper.

Buy this magazine or we'll kill this dog.
haresfur

haresfur Avatar

Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 14, 2018 - 1:31pm

 aflanigan wrote: 
It's not my fault! The economy is doing this to me!
aflanigan

aflanigan Avatar

Location: At Sea
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 14, 2018 - 6:44am

Trump’s big 2020 problem: The economy could be in recession
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: drifting
Gender: Male


Posted: Sep 2, 2018 - 11:31am

 kcar wrote:


You and Islander might be interested in this book, which I'm currently schlepping through. At times I've wondered whether the author is making too much of the enduring nature of socio-cultural trends in each region of the US, but overall the book is damned good. 

American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America

by Colin Woodard

According to award-winning journalist and historian Colin Woodard, North America is made up of eleven distinct nations, each with its own unique historical roots. In American Nations he takes readers on a journey through the history of our fractured continent, offering a revolutionary and revelatory take on American identity, and how the conflicts between them have shaped our past and continue to mold our future. From the Deep South to the Far West, to Yankeedom to El Norte, Woodard (author of American Character: A History of the Epic Struggle Between Individual Liberty and the Common Good) reveals how each region continues to uphold its distinguishing ideals and identities today, with results that can be seen in the composition of the U.S. Congress or on the county-by-county election maps of this year's Trump versus Clinton presidential election.
Woodard based his book in part on "Albion's Seed" by David Hackett Fischer, a highly respected historian (who AFAIK still lives in my hometown...).

This fascinating book is the first volume in a projected cultural history of the United States, from the earliest English settlements to our own time. It is a history of American folkways as they have changed through time, and it argues a thesis about the importance for the United States of having been British in its cultural origins.

While most people in the United States today have no British ancestors, they have assimilated regional cultures which were created by British colonists, even while preserving ethnic identities at the same time. In this sense, nearly all Americans are "Albion's Seed," no matter what their ethnicity may be. The concluding section of this remarkable book explores the ways that regional cultures have continued to dominate national politics from 1789 to 1988, and still help to shape attitudes toward education, government, gender, and violence, on which differences between American regions are greater than between European nations.

 
You might like this book ...

The Nine Nations of North America 

from 1981.  I read it when it came out and is the basis for much of my modern perception of how things are and how we got here.

More ... Nine Nations of North America, 30 Years Later

and the book itself, in case you're interested  ... The Nine Nations of North America Paperback – June, 1982

I have it in hard cover, might be time for a re read.

Cheers !

 




Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar



Posted: Sep 2, 2018 - 6:50am

Most campaign contributions come from outside candidates' districts
kcar

kcar Avatar



Posted: Feb 28, 2018 - 8:11pm

 Proclivities wrote:

I think a lot of the culture of the East Coast (as well as Vermont and Pennsylvania) is - to some extent -  based in the cultures of the original 13 colonies (consciously or not).  You've probably noticed that the Northeast also has a distinctly different culture than the Southeast - having moved from the former to the latter, I became acutely aware of that pretty quickly.  It is a huge country, but it's hard to say how and why different regions vary - or if that's really a problem.  I imagine there were proposals to set up "satellite" national capitols in the Midwest/Great Lakes area or on the West Coast over the years.

 

You and Islander might be interested in this book, which I'm currently schlepping through. At times I've wondered whether the author is making too much of the enduring nature of socio-cultural trends in each region of the US, but overall the book is damned good. 

American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America

by Colin Woodard

According to award-winning journalist and historian Colin Woodard, North America is made up of eleven distinct nations, each with its own unique historical roots. In American Nations he takes readers on a journey through the history of our fractured continent, offering a revolutionary and revelatory take on American identity, and how the conflicts between them have shaped our past and continue to mold our future. From the Deep South to the Far West, to Yankeedom to El Norte, Woodard (author of American Character: A History of the Epic Struggle Between Individual Liberty and the Common Good) reveals how each region continues to uphold its distinguishing ideals and identities today, with results that can be seen in the composition of the U.S. Congress or on the county-by-county election maps of this year's Trump versus Clinton presidential election.


Woodard based his book in part on "Albion's Seed" by David Hackett Fischer, a highly respected historian (who AFAIK still lives in my hometown...).

This fascinating book is the first volume in a projected cultural history of the United States, from the earliest English settlements to our own time. It is a history of American folkways as they have changed through time, and it argues a thesis about the importance for the United States of having been British in its cultural origins.

While most people in the United States today have no British ancestors, they have assimilated regional cultures which were created by British colonists, even while preserving ethnic identities at the same time. In this sense, nearly all Americans are "Albion's Seed," no matter what their ethnicity may be. The concluding section of this remarkable book explores the ways that regional cultures have continued to dominate national politics from 1789 to 1988, and still help to shape attitudes toward education, government, gender, and violence, on which differences between American regions are greater than between European nations.
pigtail

pigtail Avatar

Location: Southern California
Gender: Female


Posted: Feb 28, 2018 - 1:40pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/28/trumps-new-campaign-chief-has-a-close-relationship-with-a-penny-stock-thats-tied-to-a-felon.html


O
ff to a great start!
sirdroseph

sirdroseph Avatar

Location: Yes
Gender: Male


Posted: Feb 28, 2018 - 12:17pm

Interesting, looks like Oprah and Pence share some things in common: https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/e5a18631-cfa2-3230-a3ea-80cf43e50475/ss_oprah-winfrey%3A-i-might-run.html


Proclivities

Proclivities Avatar

Location: Paris of the Piedmont
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 30, 2017 - 8:01am

 islander wrote:

A lot of asterisks in there. And some pre-colony births too. 

I've traveled a lot, so I've had good exposure to the different attitudes in different areas of the country. But when my old company (in Seattle) was purchased by a group from Virginia and I had to cross manage personnel and expectations, I got a crash course in how different the cultures were. Ultimately it didn't work out for me (or many others). Having this much government control based on the East coast, and knowing how much the cultures are different, it does make me think we need better representation back there. It also makes me wonder about how wise it is to have a country this large with a central government. Maybe if there weren't so much vested in power and control, we could appreciate our differences more?
 
I think a lot of the culture of the East Coast (as well as Vermont and Pennsylvania) is - to some extent -  based in the cultures of the original 13 colonies (consciously or not).  You've probably noticed that the Northeast also has a distinctly different culture than the Southeast - having moved from the former to the latter, I became acutely aware of that pretty quickly.  It is a huge country, but it's hard to say how and why different regions vary - or if that's really a problem.  I imagine there were proposals to set up "satellite" national capitols in the Midwest/Great Lakes area or on the West Coast over the years.
islander

islander Avatar

Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 30, 2017 - 7:36am

 Proclivities wrote:

Ooops, I think Chester A. Arthur was born in Vermont and Grover 'The Clover' Cleveland was born in NJ - but I guess they both grew up in NY State.  I was referring to populations of states which border the Atlantic, not counties - something like 36% of the population live in those states.  I think the most Presidents were born in VA - obviously mostly from post-colonial days but some later in history.

 
A lot of asterisks in there. And some pre-colony births too. 

I've traveled a lot, so I've had good exposure to the different attitudes in different areas of the country. But when my old company (in Seattle) was purchased by a group from Virginia and I had to cross manage personnel and expectations, I got a crash course in how different the cultures were. Ultimately it didn't work out for me (or many others). Having this much government control based on the East coast, and knowing how much the cultures are different, it does make me think we need better representation back there. It also makes me wonder about how wise it is to have a country this large with a central government. Maybe if there weren't so much vested in power and control, we could appreciate our differences more?
Proclivities

Proclivities Avatar

Location: Paris of the Piedmont
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 30, 2017 - 7:27am

 islander wrote:
 
Okay, redirecting this over here because threadjack and all...

I'm genuinely curious about this so I dug a little. in 2010, 39% of the population lived in counties that bordered the coast. That is only about 10% of the US landmass. That also includes west and gulf coasts, so I don't think 36% could live just on the Atlantic. I also got 7 from NY - 
Martin Van Buren (8), Millard Fillmore (13), Chester A. Arthur* (21), Grover Cleveland* (22, 24), Theodore Roosevelt (26), Franklin D. Roosevelt (32), Donald Trump (45)


Interesting that you have to get pretty recent before you get any west coast representation - I would expect that early on, but you have to go all the way to Hoover before you get to a Western state. And then you jump to CA, and the intermediate west (NV, AZ, UT, WY, CO, OK, NE...) are skipped. In all, almost half (22/45) come from NY, OH, VA, and MA. Some of that is due to history and geographic expansion, but some of that is still post westward expansion. Small sample size, population density, politics etc. Still feels like time for the west to give it a go. 

 
Ooops, I think Chester A. Arthur was born in Vermont and Grover 'The Clover' Cleveland was born in NJ - but I guess they both grew up in NY State.  I was referring to populations of states which border the Atlantic, not counties - something like 36% of the population live in those states.  I think the most Presidents were born in VA - obviously mostly from post-colonial days but some later in history.
islander

islander Avatar

Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 30, 2017 - 7:15am

 Proclivities wrote:
islander wrote:

Isn't it about time we had a coastal (non-NY) president/candidate?  There are a lot of people (39%+) that live in counties that border the salt water (yes, including NY), and you have to go back to Reagan to find a pres from there.... well Bush, sort of, again NE influence (and I guess Texas technically, but I think of that more as 'heartland').... I need to work on these definitions.
/wrongthread

  
Only six presidents were born in NY State.  Anyhow, Republicans/Conservatives have repeatedly pushed the notion that "coastal" politicians are "the elite", so there's that resistance as well.  Actually, something like 36% of the US population live in states on the Atlantic Coast (from Maine to Florida).

  
Okay, redirecting this over here because threadjack and all...

I'm genuinely curious about this so I dug a little. in 2010, 39% of the population lived in counties that bordered the coast. That is only about 10% of the US landmass. That also includes west and gulf coasts, so I don't think 36% could live just on the Atlantic. I also got 7 from NY - 
Martin Van Buren (8), Millard Fillmore (13), Chester A. Arthur* (21), Grover Cleveland* (22, 24), Theodore Roosevelt (26), Franklin D. Roosevelt (32), Donald Trump (45)


Interesting that you have to get pretty recent before you get any west coast representation - I would expect that early on, but you have to go all the way to Hoover before you get to a Western state. And then you jump to CA, and the intermediate west (NV, AZ, UT, WY, CO, OK, NE...) are skipped. In all, almost half (22/45) come from NY, OH, VA, and MA. Some of that is due to history and geographic expansion, but some of that is still post westward expansion. Small sample size, population density, politics etc. Still feels like time for the west to give it a go. 
rhahl

rhahl Avatar



Posted: Feb 25, 2017 - 6:16am

 miamizsun wrote:
{#Lol}


 As a PBR drinker I have felt the domestic beer taboo, possibly due "red necks, white socks, and Blue Ribbon Beer."


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