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Index » Regional/Local » USA/Canada » It's the economy stupid. Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 9, 10, 11  Next
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thisbody

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Location: North (doubtful)
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 23, 2023 - 9:17am

Spotify will end service in Uruguay due to bill requiring fair pay for artists
westslope

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Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Oct 15, 2023 - 8:07am

The strength of the US economy and a few other economies heading into late 2023 have surprised a lot of observers.   

That said, a US recession looks increasingly inevitable at this point.  Hopefully inflation gets truly knocked back.  Food inflation has been particularly brutal for the poor and low-income workers.   

Recession start date?  Hard to say.  The US economy could already be in a recession.  Or the US recession will start sometime between now and May 2024.  With the complexity of the NBER dating system, we won't know for many months after the fact.  


NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough

The current or impending recession should be relatively short and shallow.  The downside risk consists of higher for longer real borrowing costs.   Both the proxy war in Ukraine and the recent flare up in the former Palestinian Mandate contribute to higher real capital costs.  Directly and indirectly.  Among other factors, looks like there might an increase of ~$1.50 in the security premium built into the benchmark prices of oil.  How that evolves and how long that last depends.   Higher priced oil could nudge the Federal Reserve to once again raise overnight rates in November.

—————————

Saw a rumour the other day that Paul Krugman was being considered for Chair of the Federal Reserve.  That would be a gigantic mistake in my opinion and would certainly contribute to higher real borrowing costs for longer were that to materialize.

Bright side?   Low-risk fixed income assets are offering much higher yields than they have in several decades.  Great news for risk averse retirees.  
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 8, 2023 - 6:23pm

 black321 wrote:
Participation rate peaked about 20 ya and fell to about 63% after the Great Recession… in part due to retirement, to take care of families, off the grid gigs, lifestyle changes (I know many millennials who take a year or two off before returning to work)… and maybe a few for the reasons you imply… but I doubt it moved the needle. 

 
Here's one more take that shares many of your thoughts, which I do not disagree with.
.
Unemployment Is Low, But So Is The Labor Force Participation Rate — What’s Going On In The U.S. Labor Market?
black321

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Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 8, 2023 - 1:16pm

 kurtster wrote:

I don't think retirement plays into this number very much since the age range is 15 to 64

The chart in the earlier link is interactive

Here is a chart with the long view and a link to that page which also has a breakdown by country which is kind of interesting if curious.

Participation rate peaked about 20 ya and fell to about 63% after the Great Recession… in part due to retirement, to take care of families, off the grid gigs, lifestyle changes (I know many millennials who take a year or two off before returning to work)… and maybe a few for the reasons you imply… but I doubt it moved the needle. 



kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 7, 2023 - 7:51pm

 black321 wrote:
Part of that is called retirement 
 
I don't think retirement plays into this number very much since the age range is 15 to 64

The chart in the earlier link is interactive

Here is a chart with the long view and a link to that page which also has a breakdown by country which is kind of interesting if curious.
black321

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Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 7, 2023 - 7:38am

 kurtster wrote:

The other part of the equation is the labor participation numbers

This rate is more responsible for swings in the unemployment rate than the jobs created / lost numbers.

People just don't to want to work much anymore.

Gimme, gimme, gimme ... and they're getting enough to make staying home doable.  Subsidized by the fools that still work.


Part of that is called retirement 
kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 6, 2023 - 10:39pm

 black321 wrote:
 haresfur wrote:
I wonder if anyone tracks unfilled job openings. Not sure there is a good way to do it but it would be interesting to see the demand for workers
JOLTS Report showed 9.6m openings, compared to about 6.4m unemployed...but gets a little tricky when you get into marginally attached etc.
https://www.bls.gov/jlt/ Lots of "good" news, but also lots to be cautious about dwindling savings, rising debt and delinquencies, fading stimulus, declining housing affordability, labor strikes, D.C....
Surge in yields has been the big story. Initially started over the summer when the good news was a recession seemed less likely...now indicates we are in for a longer period of high rates and volatile pricing. The Goldilocks era of low rates and inflation is over. 
 
The other part of the equation is the labor participation numbers

This rate is more responsible for swings in the unemployment rate than the jobs created / lost numbers.

People just don't to want to work much anymore.

Gimme, gimme, gimme ... and they're getting enough to make staying home doable.  Subsidized by the fools that still work.
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 6, 2023 - 2:59pm

 miamizsun wrote:


i send kids over to the bls site to look at the career outlook


what ru trying to tell them?
miamizsun

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Location: (3283.1 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 6, 2023 - 2:34pm

 black321 wrote:


JOLTS Report showed 9.6m openings, compared to about 6.4m unemployed...but gets a little tricky when you get into marginally attached etc.
https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Lots of "good" news, but also lots to be cautious about dwindling savings, rising debt and delinquencies, fading stimulus, declining housing affordability, labor strikes, D.C....
Surge in yields has been the big story. Initially started over the summer when the good news was a recession seemed less likely...now indicates we are in for a longer period of high rates and volatile pricing. The Goldilocks era of low rates and inflation is over. 



i send kids over to the bls site to look at the career outlook
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 6, 2023 - 1:59pm

 haresfur wrote:


I wonder if anyone tracks unfilled job openings. Not sure there is a good way to do it but it would be interesting to see the demand for workers


JOLTS Report showed 9.6m openings, compared to about 6.4m unemployed...but gets a little tricky when you get into marginally attached etc.
https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

Lots of "good" news, but also lots to be cautious about dwindling savings, rising debt and delinquencies, fading stimulus, declining housing affordability, labor strikes, D.C....
Surge in yields has been the big story. Initially started over the summer when the good news was a recession seemed less likely...now indicates we are in for a longer period of high rates and volatile pricing. The Goldilocks era of low rates and inflation is over. 

haresfur

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Location: The Golden Triangle
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 6, 2023 - 1:49pm

 Red_Dragon wrote:

I wonder if anyone tracks unfilled job openings. Not sure there is a good way to do it but it would be interesting to see the demand for workers
Red_Dragon

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Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Oct 6, 2023 - 7:43am

US employers added a surprisingly strong 336,000 jobs in September in a sign of economic resilience
thisbody

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Location: North (doubtful)
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 3, 2023 - 11:45am


Isabeau

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Location: sou' tex
Gender: Female


Posted: Feb 4, 2023 - 4:07am

 black321 wrote:

Inflation is a complex...a product of multiple events. And yes, it is silly to say that Joe caused it all, within 18 months of being president. 
Other issues obviously include years of the Fed's easy $ policies, $T stimulus under both admins, the tax cut, wage (including min wage) hikes, and of course the Ukraine war. 



Yes, yes, and yes!  Side note: I understand that Corporate Egg Producers profits have risen 40%, yet have no reports of avian flu.
Red_Dragon

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Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Feb 3, 2023 - 8:29am

U.S. job growth powers ahead; unemployment rate at 3.4%
black321

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Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Nov 29, 2022 - 8:52am

 rgio wrote:

I know it's pretty easy/popular to blame Biden for inflation, but here is a direct line to the last administration on part of the very complicated answer to what has caused the dramatic increases in everything, including food.

How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture

With inflation continuing to skyrocket, especially for food, which reached 10.4 percent in June, it is worth examining how the ongoing U.S. trade war with China and U.S. tariff policy overall has impacted U.S. agriculture and food prices. The economic literature shows that the U.S. import tariffs and subsequent retaliatory tariffs imposed by China and other countries on U.S. agricultural exports have hurt the U.S. agricultural industry and could impact future production, further raising food prices.

Tariffs generally raise consumer prices, and while that’s true of export tariffs too, the mechanism operates a bit differently. Limitations on exports, whether through tariffs or explicit export bans, often produce an excess in goods. If firms are unable to sell their products to the world, they must sell more of them domestically. The surplus lowers prices in the short run. But when firms invest in producing food, a highly volatile commodity, they invest based on what return they think they will be likely to earn in the future. If their access to a foreign market is limited due to another country’s tariff policies, their profits will fall and they will invest less in future production, which would lead to higher prices in the long run.

In response to the U.S. imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration on Chinese imports, China responded with several waves of tariffs on U.S. exports to China, with tariff rates ranging from 2.5 percent to 25 percent. As China represents the U.S.’s largest agricultural export market, a large percentage of agricultural goods, including soybean and pork exports, faced tariffs. Other countries also retaliated against the U.S. for imposing Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. Across all retaliatory tariffs, $30 billion in agricultural products were targeted, or about 22 percent of all retaliated goods.

...



Inflation is a complex...a product of multiple events. And yes, it is silly to say that Joe caused it all, within 18 months of being president. 
Other issues obviously include years of the Fed's easy $ policies, $T stimulus under both admins, the tax cut, wage (including min wage) hikes, and of course the Ukraine war. 

Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar

Location: Dumbf*ckistan


Posted: Nov 29, 2022 - 8:15am

inflation?
rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 12, 2022 - 9:06am

I know it's pretty easy/popular to blame Biden for inflation, but here is a direct line to the last administration on part of the very complicated answer to what has caused the dramatic increases in everything, including food.

How Tariffs and the Trade War Hurt U.S. Agriculture

With inflation continuing to skyrocket, especially for food, which reached 10.4 percent in June, it is worth examining how the ongoing U.S. trade war with China and U.S. tariff policy overall has impacted U.S. agriculture and food prices. The economic literature shows that the U.S. import tariffs and subsequent retaliatory tariffs imposed by China and other countries on U.S. agricultural exports have hurt the U.S. agricultural industry and could impact future production, further raising food prices.

Tariffs generally raise consumer prices, and while that’s true of export tariffs too, the mechanism operates a bit differently. Limitations on exports, whether through tariffs or explicit export bans, often produce an excess in goods. If firms are unable to sell their products to the world, they must sell more of them domestically. The surplus lowers prices in the short run. But when firms invest in producing food, a highly volatile commodity, they invest based on what return they think they will be likely to earn in the future. If their access to a foreign market is limited due to another country’s tariff policies, their profits will fall and they will invest less in future production, which would lead to higher prices in the long run.

In response to the U.S. imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration on Chinese imports, China responded with several waves of tariffs on U.S. exports to China, with tariff rates ranging from 2.5 percent to 25 percent. As China represents the U.S.’s largest agricultural export market, a large percentage of agricultural goods, including soybean and pork exports, faced tariffs. Other countries also retaliated against the U.S. for imposing Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. Across all retaliatory tariffs, $30 billion in agricultural products were targeted, or about 22 percent of all retaliated goods.

...


miamizsun

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Location: (3283.1 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 8, 2022 - 6:41pm

 sunybuny wrote:
Asking for a friend.... how hypocritical is it to drive electric car, recycle like crazy, have solar power, wash on cold setting and have lots of Big Oil stocks in retirement portfolio?
 
{#Whisper}  shhh "big oil" has been investing literally billions in renewables for years (one recent example on bloomberg)
rgio

rgio Avatar

Location: West Jersey
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 8, 2022 - 8:19am

 sunybuny wrote:

Asking for a friend.... how hypocritical is it to drive electric car, recycle like crazy, have solar power, wash on cold setting and have lots of Big Oil stocks in retirement portfolio?


I offer this up as a "sort-of" summary of the ethical/moral positions available for your friend.   

A friend of mine was present during much of this debate at Swarthmore College in PA.  A lot of the smartest folks anywhere argued for months over it....and here's a summary.

FWIW - the returns on their portfolio (currently the 10th largest per student in the US) have enabled them to spend extravagantly on a new dining hall facility that includes the following sustainability benefits in its design.... 
  • All-electric energy using renewable sources
  • Solar panels on the roof
  • Meadow area and food gardens
  • Improved compost collection
  • Induction cooking
  • Increase in locally sourced food
  • Stormwater management and recapture
  • A geoexchange energy transfer plant in the basement that will serve the entire campus and enable the College to transition away from the use of fossil fuels

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