Well, yes. That's what I was referring to when I said at the back of Putin's cerebellum somewhere. But I think there is good evidence that oil and gas is not Putin's primary motive. All of the wars on Russia's borders have been about quelling local independence and restoring regimes aligned with Russia. Moreover, the timing of the 2022 invasion closely followed Lukashenko losing the election in Belarus (before getting reinstalled by Russia - i.e. a refusal to accept an election and getting installed by force - sound familiar?).
I contend that what Putin is most afraid of is domestic unrest and the encroachment of western democracy. In fact, this IMO is the only prism to view the messages coming out of Russian TV which are an exercise in pure absurdity. So, sure, oil may play some role in his reasoning, but power and control is by far more important to him. This is also the only rationale that makes sense to him accepting all the downside risks attached with an invasion of Ukraine and holding Europe hostage in terms of oil and gas supplies. Risks that have now become manifest:
Europe's gas storage is 100% full. There's no way Europe is going to ever rely on Russia for its supplies to the same extent ever again.
He's lost his conventional army and is now hauling out old WWII stock to send to the front.
Nor can he rebuild his army because of sanctions on essential western parts
He's decimating his population of young fathers and is anyway facing a demographic crisis.
It's possible that up to 700,000 people have fled Russia
As for Ukraine.. it is true, like any country going through a massive transition from one-party rule to democracy there was a problem with corruption (Russia has the same issue) and a diversity of political parties jockeying for position. The invasion has changed all that. Putin has made a unified nation out of Ukraine. Another major fail on Putin's part, but Ukraine's gain. 76% of the nation favour fighting until victory,and this after all the losses and damage that the war has caused. They are not going to back down, regardless of what support they get from the west.
btw.. if you feel like reading something to balance out your diet of Tucker Carlson soundbites, you could try reading something like this.
Who is making sh*t up about anyone in this thread? I only said that the Ukraine war wasn’t started over oil or about oil. Oil is simply what Putin is trying to use as leverage against those Western nations who have been highly dependent on it to try and erode their support of Ukraine.
Where in that statement did I make sh*t up about anyone? I stand behind it but you are clearly troubled by it.
totally agree on this, ten times over. This war was never about oil, although it may have played some role in in the backwaters of Putin's cerebellum but it was certainly not the issue for the rest of Europe. To say it is about oil is anyway a total non sequitur. Were it about oil and guaranteed energy supplies then 1) from the Russian perspective, Putin would not have started the war (they have the oil, right) but, if anything, he would have leveraged his position to raise oil prices and not spit in the face of his biggest customers and 2) were it only about oil from Europe's perspective they would have immediately sacrificed Ukraine for the sake of cheap guaranteed supplies (which it appears Putin was hoping). the fact that this didn't happen by itself shows 1) Putin is the aggressor (not Europe or the west) and 2) there are more important things for both sides than the customer client relationship governing the supply of oil. Which means this war is solely about Putin's attempt to revive the Soviet empire. All of his speeches support this view and it is substantiated by all of his actions. The resistance from Ukraine, former Eastern bloc nations, the rest of Europe and the US is because the Soviet system is anathema to what these countries believe in. Who wants to live in a kleptocratic failed state that is at best two generations behind the rest of the world? Not even a lot of Russians want to do that, otherwise why did they leave in droves? There is basically no justification for Russian's invasion of Ukraine, be it geopolitically, historically, economically or morally, and it is high time they left the country, went home and took care of their own shit.
Let's look back at the recent history between Russia and Ukraine. Some of the most important oil and natural gas pipelines run through Ukraine. Ukraine was in debt up to their ears to Russia because of their inability or unwillingness to pay Russia their gas bill. I remember the US and others IIRC sending money to Ukraine to help pay off this debt early in Obama's first term. Ukraine then began stealing gas from Russia. The pipelines were shut down for awhile, exposing Europe's vulnerability to dependency of Russia for energy in the process.
Also, the corruption in Ukraine is legendary. Putin's puppet was tossed out of power. Putin seized Crimea while Obama watched and did nothing. Obama gave responsibility over Ukraine to Biden. Just like Biden gave Harris responsibility of our southern border to Kamala ... Biden held Ukraine hostage over $1 billion ± to get rid of an investigation involving Hunter and Burisma Energy. Trump was impeached for sticking his nose in Ukraine regarding the Biden family's business dealings.
But let's get back to the oil. This is very old news for those of very short memory here since this was hashed over long ago. Here's some charts and links to peruse. Then everyone can get back to me and tell me that oil has little to do with any of this ...
Ukraine’s Gas-Fuelled Crisis Nikki Jones and Will Thornton Ukraine stands on the brink of civil war and bankruptcy, and energy has been a key factor. Is diversification of supply possible? Is it even a partial solution?This article appeared in Vol. 11, No. 3 - 2014
totally agree on this, ten times over. This war was never about oil, although it may have played some role in in the backwaters of Putin's cerebellum but it was certainly not the issue for the rest of Europe. To say it is about oil is anyway a total non sequitur.
Were it about oil and guaranteed energy supplies then 1) from the Russian perspective, Putin would not have started the war (they have the oil, right) but, if anything, he would have leveraged his position to raise oil prices and not spit in the face of his biggest customers and 2) were it only about oil from Europe's perspective they would have immediately sacrificed Ukraine for the sake of cheap guaranteed supplies (which it appears Putin was hoping).
the fact that this didn't happen by itself shows 1) Putin is the aggressor (not Europe or the west) and 2) there are more important things for both sides than the customer client relationship governing the supply of oil.
Which means this war is solely about Putin's attempt to revive the Soviet empire. All of his speeches support this view and it is substantiated by all of his actions. The resistance from Ukraine, former Eastern bloc nations, the rest of Europe and the US is because the Soviet system is anathema to what these countries believe in. Who wants to live in a kleptocratic failed state that is at best two generations behind the rest of the world? Not even a lot of Russians want to do that, otherwise why did they leave in droves?
There is basically no justification for Russian's invasion of Ukraine, be it geopolitically, historically, economically or morally, and it is high time they left the country, went home and took care of their own shit.
I sort of agree...yes Putin is clearly the aggressor.
From Putin's perspective, it was about turning back the clock, returning to being an adversary instead of a partner, rejecting the west, and first and foremost feeling threatened by ukraine turning towards the west, instead of mother russia. The west played a role over the past 20 years by not accepting this, and continuing to play in his backyard...whether ukraine has the right to choose its own future is not the point (and some did choose russia...an ongoing civil war, donetsk/luhansk). Of course they have the right to choose, but that ignores the geopolitical political risks....which gets us to where we are...an elevated, prolonged war that is seriously disrupting the flow and supply of key commodities, have a deep impact throughout the globe, and especially among impoverished nations.
At this point its seems any arguments about war or not are moot.
Who is making sh*t up about anyone in this thread? I only said that the Ukraine war wasnât started over oil or about oil. Oil is simply what Putin is trying to use as leverage against those Western nations who have been highly dependent on it to try and erode their support of Ukraine.
Where in that statement did I make sh*t up about anyone? I stand behind it but you are clearly troubled by it.
Was referring to your comment about "Russian repression"
Perhaps I misunderstood, but that sounded like you were implying I somehow sympathize...
Re. the oil bit, it could be, it could not be.
On the one hand, one might think if it was about oil, why not let Russia take what they want, end this all quickly, and get back to ship oil, wheat,...
On the other, maybe the inside view is that the west is threatened by Putin, and feels he may continue manipulate their vulnerability, reliance on Ukraine/Russian commodities.
Regardless, it's in Europe's backyard, and not some 3rd world southern hemisphere nation , so there is that (sorry to be callous, but that is a reality)
Who is making sh*t up about anyone in this thread? I only said that the Ukraine war wasnât started over oil or about oil. Oil is simply what Putin is trying to use as leverage against those Western nations who have been highly dependent on it to try and erode their support of Ukraine.
Where in that statement did I make sh*t up about anyone? I stand behind it but you are clearly troubled by it.
totally agree on this, ten times over. This war was never about oil, although it may have played some role in in the backwaters of Putin's cerebellum but it was certainly not the issue for the rest of Europe. To say it is about oil is anyway a total non sequitur.
Were it about oil and guaranteed energy supplies then 1) from the Russian perspective, Putin would not have started the war (they have the oil, right) but, if anything, he would have leveraged his position to raise oil prices and not spit in the face of his biggest customers and 2) were it only about oil from Europe's perspective they would have immediately sacrificed Ukraine for the sake of cheap guaranteed supplies (which it appears Putin was hoping).
the fact that this didn't happen by itself shows 1) Putin is the aggressor (not Europe or the west) and 2) there are more important things for both sides than the customer client relationship governing the supply of oil.
Which means this war is solely about Putin's attempt to revive the Soviet empire. All of his speeches support this view and it is substantiated by all of his actions. The resistance from Ukraine, former Eastern bloc nations, the rest of Europe and the US is because the Soviet system is anathema to what these countries believe in. Who wants to live in a kleptocratic failed state that is at best two generations behind the rest of the world? Not even a lot of Russians want to do that, otherwise why did they leave in droves?
There is basically no justification for Russian's invasion of Ukraine, be it geopolitically, historically, economically or morally, and it is high time they left the country, went home and took care of their own shit.
tell me again, what is it about your love for totalitarian socialist government that distinguishes you from fascist rule? I swear, I find it hard to see the difference.
tell me again, what is it about your love for totalitarian socialist government that distinguishes you from fascist rule? I swear, I find it hard to see the difference.
There they go againâ¦anytime someone questions any response besides a military one they make attempts to frame it as a Putin sympathizer.
This isnât the Talk Behind Their Backs forumâ¦you canât just make s$&t up about people.
I would guess that comment is likely aimed at me.
Who is making sh*t up about anyone in this thread? I only said that the Ukraine war wasnât started over oil or about oil. Oil is simply what Putin is trying to use as leverage against those Western nations who have been highly dependent on it to try and erode their support of Ukraine.
Where in that statement did I make sh*t up about anyone? I stand behind it but you are clearly troubled by it.
The reason why we, western gov, care about Ukraine is oil and other commodities, or donât you believe Biden (who in this case is part correct about inflation)?
Thereâs currently negotiations to set price caps in Russian oil⦠while a number of republicans are starting to soften their support.
The reason why we, western gov, care about Ukraine is oil and other commodities, or donât you believe Biden (who in this case is part correct about inflation)?
Thereâs currently negotiations to set price caps in Russian oil⦠while a number of republicans are starting to soften their support.
There they go againâ¦anytime someone questions any response besides a military one they make attempts to frame it as a Putin sympathizer.
This isnât the Talk Behind Their Backs forumâ¦you canât just make s$&t up about people.
It is clear that Putin must be stopped, cold in his tracks. No appeasement or compromises anymore. We, as the so called civilized western world, have to draw a line in the sand and say no more. If not here, where ?
M.A.G.A! Oh wait...
Maybe it's time to get the band back together: Tony B.'s Coalition of the Willing...
Once again, we have another war that is ultimately about oil. The lack of it is causing grave weaknesses and vulnerabilities to the whole world. I see somewhere that it was posted that with ALL the efforts to implement green energy, we have only lowered oil's share from 82% to 81%.
The war is not about oil at all⦠was Russia invading Ukraine to secure oil rich land that Russia coveted? No, the war is about Vladimir Putinâs imperialist ambitions to try and retool Russia into a version of Soviet Union II only the script isnât quite playing out the way he planned.
Oil⦠and access to it⦠is simply a lever that Putin was hoping to exploit to try and erode support for Ukraine from countries that were highly dependent on Russia on supplying it to them.
I don't think many actually support the war, but they see supporting (no direct involvement) Ukraine in fighting as appropriate, while ignoring or largely discounting the long history leading up to the invasion.
I guess you must mean the long and storied history of Russian repression. Nope, I donât think anyone is discounting that at all. In fact I think everyone recognizes it as a primary contributing factor to the current state of affairs.
If it's MOST, then I assume you're talking about support for the Russia-Ukraine war. Political party perhaps, ideology not so much.
I don't think many actually support the war, but they see supporting (no direct involvement) Ukraine in fighting as appropriate, while ignoring or largely discounting the long history leading up to the invasion.
I believe to some that there is a sense of resignation over this whole thing. We have kicked the can all the way to the end of the road. Now we have to pick it up and deal with it.
It is clear that Putin must be stopped, cold in his tracks. No appeasement or compromises anymore. We, as the so called civilized western world, have to draw a line in the sand and say no more. If not here, where ?
I don't want any full tilt nuclear annihilation scenario. I grew up with the threat of this once already. Biden / Putin is not the same as Kennedy / Khrushchev however. Two old and deranged men are in charge of this round.
Once again, we have another war that is ultimately about oil. The lack of it is causing grave weaknesses and vulnerabilities to the whole world. I see somewhere that it was posted that with ALL the efforts to implement green energy, we have only lowered oil's share from 82% to 81%.
Do I have a point ? I dunno. Perhaps green energy is not ready for prime time and won't be anytime soon. This premature push to it at the expense of using oil is destabilizing the world. Oil is much more than fuel for internal combustion engines, it is still the lifeblood of our civilization. The quickest way to peace as I see it is an abundance of oil. Deweaponize it with abundance.
I don't think many actually support the war, but they see supporting (no direct involvement) Ukraine in fighting as appropriate, while ignoring or largely discounting the long history leading up to the invasion.
Right, I guess that's one way of (narrowly) framing support.
