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Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » Climate Change Page: Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 107, 108, 109 ... 113, 114, 115  Next
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rosedraws

rosedraws Avatar

Location: close to the edge
Gender: Female


Posted: Dec 8, 2009 - 4:16am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
A lot of wise things

 
{#Notworthy}

Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar



Posted: Dec 8, 2009 - 3:50am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

I don't get the left/right divide in the States either. Just doesn't exist in Germany, well if so, totally minimal.
 
Perhaps because being very far "right" in Germany is at best unpopular, at worst downright illegal.

callum

callum Avatar

Location: its wet, windy and chilly....take a guess
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 8, 2009 - 3:42am

 Zep wrote:

Oh there is no doubt the earth will continue to adapt to whatever input conditions are introduced to it.  More CO2 is good for plants, obviously.  The question is, how amenable is planet change to humanity and human activities? 

I'm with NoEnz - the focus should be less on far-horizon events, like climate change, and more on quantifiable limits, such as energy reserves, population growth, and economic development. Man has never lived to a level of sustainability within his environment, always setting out to colonise new lands and find new hunting grounds. Sustainability is possible, but it takes commitment and sacrifice. 

More than that, it requires an honest evaluation of current economic models predicated on growth.
 

 
In addition many plants don't actually produce much of a net change in CO2.  They respire, just like us.  The only CO2 not given off in gasses, is the CO2 trapped in the wood of the trees themselves.

Zep

Zep Avatar



Posted: Dec 8, 2009 - 3:32am

 Beaker wrote:
The "above argument" is a suggestion that this planet continues to change and adapt to that which changes within it — as it has done for millennia, long before man walked this earth.

Not the real issue?  What is the real issue then, in your opinion?  And have you checked with the warmists?
 
Oh there is no doubt the earth will continue to adapt to whatever input conditions are introduced to it.  More CO2 is good for plants, obviously.  The question is, how amenable is planet change to humanity and human activities? 

I'm with NoEnz - the focus should be less on far-horizon events, like climate change, and more on quantifiable limits, such as energy reserves, population growth, and economic development. Man has never lived to a level of sustainability within his environment, always setting out to colonise new lands and find new hunting grounds. Sustainability is possible, but it takes commitment and sacrifice. 

More than that, it requires an honest evaluation of current economic models predicated on growth.
 


Alchemist

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Location: San Jose, CA
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 8, 2009 - 1:08am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

I don't get the left/right divide in the States either. Just doesn't exist in Germany, well if so, totally minimal.
 
That's 'cause you're not stuck with a two party system.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 8, 2009 - 12:48am

 MrsHobieJoe wrote:
I'm not watching something with a non-word in the title.  Let's start posting some of the articles from the scientific journals here.  There's some pretty interesting stuff there that hasn't been politicised.  How come there appears to be a right/left wing split in the US?  That's not so much the case in Europe.

 
You're not missing anything. One of the worst quality spoofs I have ever seen and that is saying something.

I don't get the left/right divide in the States either. Just doesn't exist in Germany, well if so, totally minimal.

MrsHobieJoe

MrsHobieJoe Avatar

Location: somewhere in Europe
Gender: Female


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 11:59pm

I'm not watching something with a non-word in the title.  Let's start posting some of the articles from the scientific journals here.  There's some pretty interesting stuff there that hasn't been politicised.  How come there appears to be a right/left wing split in the US?  That's not so much the case in Europe.


NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 9:22pm

 Beaker wrote:

Not the real issue?  What is the real issue then, in your opinion?  And have you checked with the warmists?
 
um, rapid depletion of finite resources.

NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 9:04pm

 Beaker wrote:
Wheeeee!  This is fun!

Greenhouse gas carbon dioxide ramps up aspen growth

Dec. 4, 2009

by Terry Devitt

The rising level of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be fueling more than climate change. It could also be making some trees grow like crazy.

Aspen trees

 

That is the finding of a new study of natural stands of quaking aspen, one of North America's most important and widespread deciduous trees. The study, by scientists from UW-Madison and the University of Minnesota at Morris (UMM) and published today (Dec. 4) in the journal Global Change Biology, shows that elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide during the past 50 years have boosted aspen growth rates by an astonishing 50 percent.

"Trees are already responding to a relatively nominal increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 50 years," says Rick Lindroth, a UW-Madison professor of ecology and an expert on plant responses to climate change. Lindroth, UW-Madison colleague Don Waller, and professors Christopher Cole and Jon Anderson of UMM conducted the new study.

Read more here


 
It's easy to pick holes in the greenhouse gas => climate change argument although curiously, the above argument can be taken as proof that atmospheric CO2 levels are elevated, so you are kind of shooting yourself in the foot quoting this.

Another factor in climate change is a recent discovery that phytoplankton blooms from the ash given off by volcanic eruptions, absorbing huge amounts of atmospheric CO2 in the process.. not that I see any huge eruptions around at the moment, just that is a another variable in a hugely complicated system (and I wouldn't want to be around for the ensuing famine either).

I have never been a fan of concentrating the entire issue of sustainability on climate change. The real issue IMO is not climate change but that we are soon going to run out of resources, oil being the primary one. Worse, scarcity is going to hit us suddenly and hard. We need to get the alternative technologies up and running now. If climate change is the bogeyman to get governments to act as one, then so be it but it is not the real issue.

NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 8:51pm

 miamizsun wrote:
....just some random thoughts....

What is troubling to me is that I think that most of the world is clueless as to what is going to happen here.

In the name of saving mankind from mankind, we're going to tax it until it turns green?

..

And if people think the oil companies are bad, why would the oil companies want to see this passed?

People act like this is the end of the world, especially those who will reap serious money from it.

If it is that important can we get access to all of the data, and take the time to just confirm what the hell is happening here?

This tax is going to snowball and hit the end user right in the paycheck, and I just don't think that most people can shell out much more in taxes right now.

Shouldn't we look at major incentives instead?

The track record of the people making these decisions isn't very good, shouldn't they have all of the good information that they can possibly get?

What reason do we have to believe that this isn't going to be like every other cluster f*ck incompetent bureaucrats have foisted on/upon us?

I've never seen so many, so eager to get royally reamed in my life.

 


 
I understand your fear but if you look at the per capita output of greenhouse gases, the US has a long way to go to clean up its act compared to Europe (and Europe also has a long way to go before we get to anything like sustainable). Point being that we all have to act.

Second point is that those nations/companies who act first will enjoy the competitive advantage and win a larger share of the huge new market that is emerging.

Third point is mind-set. It appears to me, looking at the wider scene (admittedly through this empty toilet roll that I use as a telescope), that Europeans generally view the coming changes as an opportunity whereas many in the States see them as a threat. That doesn't bode too well for the future success of the States.

Finally, in the end, taxes are taxes. The government will always try to maximise its tax revenue without strangling the economy on which it feeds. The issue is how to pull this stunt off. You can use tax as a steering instrument (which is what a green tax is) or as a flat across-the-board tax (like a sales tax on all goods and services). Emissions trading and exorbitant tax on oil and fuel are steering instruments that have been in place in Europe for a while already and I don't see their economies tanking (pardon the expression) any more than others in the middle of this recession.

miamizsun

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Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 8:30pm

....just some random thoughts....

What is troubling to me is that I think that most of the world is clueless as to what is going to happen here.

In the name of saving mankind from mankind, we're going to tax it until it turns green?

"I believe that the transaction tax still has a great deal of merit," Pelosi told reporters. "The concern that many of us or others have had is that it will send, it will send transactions overseas.

"Well, let's see, the fact is, what we are talking about is a global transaction ," she said, "something that we would do in conjunction with other G nations, whether it is G8, G20, whatever the current G number is. Because it is really a source of revenue that has really minimal impact on the transaction, but a tremendous impact on helping us meet our needs."

 

And if people think the oil companies are bad, why would the oil companies want to see this passed?

People act like this is the end of the world, especially those who will reap serious money from it.

If it is that important can we get access to all of the data, and take the time to just confirm what the hell is happening here?

This tax is going to snowball and hit the end user right in the paycheck, and I just don't think that most people can shell out much more in taxes right now.

Shouldn't we look at major incentives instead?

The track record of the people making these decisions isn't very good, shouldn't they have all of the good information that they can possibly get?

What reason do we have to believe that this isn't going to be like every other cluster f*ck incompetent bureaucrats have foisted on/upon us?

I've never seen so many, so eager to get royally reamed in my life.

 



BasmntMadman

BasmntMadman Avatar

Location: Off-White Gardens


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 7:40pm

 Beaker wrote:
 BasmntMadman wrote:
wank wank wank


Great job!

Come back again when you can sort through all the techno jargon and find your way to the conclusions at the end - which, btw, were not impacted upon with the edits. 

BasmntMadman wrote:
Especially since it's on a site named "small dead animals", which, appropriately, has won a best conservative blog award. 

Do you know what original reporting is?  Do you think you can you identify it on sight?  1...2....3...
 
I'll come back again when he catches his breath.  Suppose he turned a report like that in to his boss?  Bet such a document, showing such evidence of careful consideration, would make a great impression.

And even then it's one IT professional's opinion, based on a reconstruction from pieces of a puzzle. He hasn't visited the CRU , or talked with them, etc, to definitely know how their network is set up.  And it's likely a very biased opinion.

 
 



BasmntMadman

BasmntMadman Avatar

Location: Off-White Gardens


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 7:11pm

 Beaker wrote:
Today's definitive idiot:

Professor Beddington told the BBC: 'I think what is absolutely clear is that it is a relatively sophisticated hacking job, that this was not some sort of undergraduate prank.

Source

Idiot. 

Next time have an IT systems administrator walk you through what the evidence does and does not show. 

/Army of Davids


 
Uhm...(at http://www.smalldeadanimals.com , under the heading Climate-gate:  Leaked)

As has been pointed out to me, the filenames are Unix epoch timestamps. (Like, duh, Lance.) This invalidates certain parts of my analysis, but doesn't in any way invalidate my conclusions.

The point of the original information was to provide more circumstantial evidence pointing to the location of the email archives. The fact that the emails are named with epoch timestamps that relate to the creation date of the emails actually enhances this point.

You definitely do not want multiple machines naming files based on a Unix timestamp. It has to be a single machine because the opportunity for overwriting a file is simply too great.

 


Yeah...sure...I think I'll wait until Sherlock gets his detective act completely together.  Lots of red and strikeouts in the walk-through. Oh, but only an idiot wouldn't believe it.  Especially since it's on a site named "small dead animals", which, appropriately, has won a best conservative blog award. 

Sample, from the article:

I've shown that the emails were collected from the servers rather than from the users accounts and workstations, but I haven't shown which servers were doing the collection. There are two options, the mail gateway or the departmental mail servers.

As has been pointed out to me, the filenames are Unix epoch timestamps. (Like, duh, Lance.) This invalidates certain parts of my analysis, but doesn't in any way invalidate my conclusions.

The point of the original information was to provide more circumstantial evidence pointing to the location of the email archives. The fact that the emails are named with epoch timestamps that relate to the creation date of the emails actually enhances this point.

You definitely do not want multiple machines naming files based on a Unix timestamp. It has to be a single machine because the opportunity for overwriting a file is simply too great.

As demonstrated above, I believe that the numbers of the filenames correspond to the order that the emails were archived. If so, the numbers that are missing, represent other emails not captured in FOIA2009.zip.

I wrote a short Bash program3 to calculate the variances between the numbering system of the email filenames. The result is staggering, that's a lot of email outside of what was released. Here's a graph of the variances in order as well as a graph with the variances numerically sorted . Graph info down below.

< Variance from Email Number to the 	  last Email NumberVariances sorted and plotted >

The first graph is a little hard to read, but that's mostly because the first variance is 8,805,971. To see a little better, just lop off the first variance and rerun gnuplot. For simplicity, that graph is here. The mean of the variances is 402839.36 so the average amount of emails between each released email is 402,839. While not really applicable, but useful, the standard deviation is 736228.56 and you can visualize that from the second graph.

I realize that variance without reference is useless, in this instance the number of days between emails. Here is a grep of the emails with their dates of origin.

I do not see the administrators copying the email at the departmental level, but rather at the mail gateway level. This is logical for a few reasons:

  • The machine name ueams2.uea.ac.uk implies that there are other departmental mail servers with the names like ueams1.uea.ac.uk, (or even ueams.uea.ac.uk), maybe a ueams3.uea.ac.uk. If true, then you would need to copy email from at least one other server with the same scripts. This duplication of effort is non-elegant.
  • There is a second machine that you have to copy emails from and that is the MS Exchange server so you would need a third set of scripts to create a copy of email. Again, this would be unlike an Administrator.
  • Departmental machines can be outside the purview of Administration staff or allow non-Administrative staff access. This is not where you want to be placing copies of emails for the purposes of Institutional protection.
  • As shown with the email number variances, and if they are representative of the email number as it passed through UEA's email systems, that's a lot of emails from a departmental mail server and more like an institutional mail gateway.
  • As the emails have been shown to be directly related to the Unix epoch, it seems certain that a single machine was responsible for naming the files. Having multiple servers writing files out with a filename based on a timestamp will certainly overwrite some files at some point.

So given the assumptions listed above, the hacker would have to have access to the gateway mail server and/or the Administration file server where the emails were archived. This machine would most likely be an Administrative file server. It would not be optimal for an Administrator to clutter up a production server open to the Internet with sensitive archives.




dionysius

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Location: The People's Republic of Austin
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:34pm

 cc_rider wrote:

Sadly, I'm with you. I believe there is such a thing as global warming. I don't know what actually causes it. We can infer that human activity caused it, but there isn't really any way to know. Vesuvius, Pinatubo, Mt. Saint Helens: THOSE did something us puny mortals can only HOPE to aspire to.

I don't think there is anything we can do to stop it. It is the height of hubris to think we have control over this ball of confusion. We can spend tons of money on whatever band-aids are trendy, and the temp is gonna keep going up.

I'm gonna have another beer.
 

Not only can we puny mortals aspire to that, we DO pump more carbon into the atmosphere every year than any natural source. Denialists point to volcanoes as sources, but these are dwarfed by the human contribution. "It is estimated that volcanoes release about 130-230 million tonnes (145-255 million tons) of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. This is about a factor of 1000 smaller than the sum of the other natural sources and about factor of about 100 smaller than the sources from human activity."
And according to NOAA News Online, Story 2412. 2005-03-31. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2412.htm. , "Human activities such as the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation have caused the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to increase by about 35% since the beginning of the age of industrialization."

That's us, not volcanoes or solar sunlight variation or even our farting cows. Every time you drive a car or turn on the lights, that's more carbon in the atmosphere.


Coaxial

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Location: 543mileswestofParadis,1491miles east of
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:27pm

 JrzyTmata wrote:



this is not a political statement. it's just what I do. I like funny cats and tomatoes.
 
And saying STFU...{#Hug}

islander

islander Avatar

Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:25pm

 Welly wrote:

If I come paddling up in my kayak will you take me in? {#Wink}
I'll promise to bring some good BC wine with me.

 
As long as you recycle. Oh, and I have to win the Lotto too or else it will be crowded on the Harrisea.  If not I'll be going down swinging with the rest of you as it all falls apart.

dionysius

dionysius Avatar

Location: The People's Republic of Austin
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:07pm

 islander wrote:

I'm pretty sure we are doomed.
 
I'm not that pessimistic. But we are in trouble, and have to act and act quickly, or we will be. We're not in time to save many plant and animal species, I'm afraid. The slow-motion catastrophe we've made and that we're living through will be the next mass extinction event comparable to the P-T and K-T events. But we can perhaps save ourselves, if we get our resource use, carbon emission, and (as you suggest) population under control. Soon.

JrzyTmata

JrzyTmata Avatar



Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:06pm

 Welly wrote:

The old grade 5 tomato + fruit flies in the mason jar science experiemt, remember?

(And I'm gonna wait for you after school.)
 


this is not a political statement. it's just what I do. I like funny cats and tomatoes.

cc_rider

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Location: Bastrop
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:04pm

 islander wrote:

I'm pretty sure we are doomed. Everyone wants an easy solution, and there just isn't one anymore. The people willing to make changes are too few to make up for the many more who aren't. And that bolded bit is the elephant in the room (well one of them anyway), I've yet to hear anyone say population control. Have 0 kids (I use the term child free) and people think there is something wrong with you, have 8 and you get a TV show. I think we need to buy set asides for the farmland it will take to feed us for our lives, and should have to do the same for any children you bring into the mix. then factor in some dump space, and a small fee for environmental impact...

Maybe we'll get Dio's Fusion reactor in time. But I'm also buying lotto tickets because it looks to me like the same odds. Even money:a clean safe energy source, or I can buy a mountain near the coast and wait for it to become an island to live out my days.
 
Sadly, I'm with you. I believe there is such a thing as global warming. I don't know what actually causes it. We can infer that human activity caused it, but there isn't really any way to know. Vesuvius, Pinatubo, Mt. Saint Helens: THOSE did something us puny mortals can only HOPE to aspire to.

I don't think there is anything we can do to stop it. It is the height of hubris to think we have control over this ball of confusion. We can spend tons of money on whatever band-aids are trendy, and the temp is gonna keep going up.

I'm gonna have another beer.

Welly

Welly Avatar

Location: Lotusland
Gender: Female


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:57pm

 islander wrote:

I'm pretty sure we are doomed. Everyone wants an easy solution, and there just isn't one anymore. The people willing to make changes are too few to make up for the many more who aren't. And that bolded bit is the elephant in the room (well one of them anyway), I've yet to hear anyone say population control. Have 0 kids (I use the term child free) and people think there is something wrong with you, have 8 and you get a TV show. I think we need to buy set asides for the farmland it will take to feed us for our lives, and should have to do the same for any children you bring into the mix. then factor in some dump space, and a small fee for environmental impact...

Maybe we'll get Dio's Fusion reactor in time. But I'm also buying lotto tickets because it looks to me like the same odds. Even money:a clean safe energy source, or I can buy a mountain near the coast and wait for it to become an island to live out my days.
 
If I come paddling up in my kayak will you take me in? {#Wink}
I'll promise to bring some good BC wine with me.
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