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ONE WORD - buddy - Jan 21, 2020 - 9:24pm
 
Index » Radio Paradise/General » General Discussion » Climate Change Page: Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 93, 94, 95 ... 99, 100, 101  Next
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miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3261.3 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 8:30pm

....just some random thoughts....

What is troubling to me is that I think that most of the world is clueless as to what is going to happen here.

In the name of saving mankind from mankind, we're going to tax it until it turns green?

"I believe that the transaction tax still has a great deal of merit," Pelosi told reporters. "The concern that many of us or others have had is that it will send, it will send transactions overseas.

"Well, let's see, the fact is, what we are talking about is a global transaction ," she said, "something that we would do in conjunction with other G nations, whether it is G8, G20, whatever the current G number is. Because it is really a source of revenue that has really minimal impact on the transaction, but a tremendous impact on helping us meet our needs."

 

And if people think the oil companies are bad, why would the oil companies want to see this passed?

People act like this is the end of the world, especially those who will reap serious money from it.

If it is that important can we get access to all of the data, and take the time to just confirm what the hell is happening here?

This tax is going to snowball and hit the end user right in the paycheck, and I just don't think that most people can shell out much more in taxes right now.

Shouldn't we look at major incentives instead?

The track record of the people making these decisions isn't very good, shouldn't they have all of the good information that they can possibly get?

What reason do we have to believe that this isn't going to be like every other cluster f*ck incompetent bureaucrats have foisted on/upon us?

I've never seen so many, so eager to get royally reamed in my life.

 



BasmntMadman

BasmntMadman Avatar

Location: Off-White Gardens


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 7:40pm

 Beaker wrote:
 BasmntMadman wrote:
wank wank wank


Great job!

Come back again when you can sort through all the techno jargon and find your way to the conclusions at the end - which, btw, were not impacted upon with the edits. 

BasmntMadman wrote:
Especially since it's on a site named "small dead animals", which, appropriately, has won a best conservative blog award. 

Do you know what original reporting is?  Do you think you can you identify it on sight?  1...2....3...
 
I'll come back again when he catches his breath.  Suppose he turned a report like that in to his boss?  Bet such a document, showing such evidence of careful consideration, would make a great impression.

And even then it's one IT professional's opinion, based on a reconstruction from pieces of a puzzle. He hasn't visited the CRU , or talked with them, etc, to definitely know how their network is set up.  And it's likely a very biased opinion.

 
 



BasmntMadman

BasmntMadman Avatar

Location: Off-White Gardens


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 7:11pm

 Beaker wrote:
Today's definitive idiot:

Professor Beddington told the BBC: 'I think what is absolutely clear is that it is a relatively sophisticated hacking job, that this was not some sort of undergraduate prank.

Source

Idiot. 

Next time have an IT systems administrator walk you through what the evidence does and does not show. 

/Army of Davids


 
Uhm...(at http://www.smalldeadanimals.com , under the heading Climate-gate:  Leaked)

As has been pointed out to me, the filenames are Unix epoch timestamps. (Like, duh, Lance.) This invalidates certain parts of my analysis, but doesn't in any way invalidate my conclusions.

The point of the original information was to provide more circumstantial evidence pointing to the location of the email archives. The fact that the emails are named with epoch timestamps that relate to the creation date of the emails actually enhances this point.

You definitely do not want multiple machines naming files based on a Unix timestamp. It has to be a single machine because the opportunity for overwriting a file is simply too great.

 


Yeah...sure...I think I'll wait until Sherlock gets his detective act completely together.  Lots of red and strikeouts in the walk-through. Oh, but only an idiot wouldn't believe it.  Especially since it's on a site named "small dead animals", which, appropriately, has won a best conservative blog award. 

Sample, from the article:

I've shown that the emails were collected from the servers rather than from the users accounts and workstations, but I haven't shown which servers were doing the collection. There are two options, the mail gateway or the departmental mail servers.

As has been pointed out to me, the filenames are Unix epoch timestamps. (Like, duh, Lance.) This invalidates certain parts of my analysis, but doesn't in any way invalidate my conclusions.

The point of the original information was to provide more circumstantial evidence pointing to the location of the email archives. The fact that the emails are named with epoch timestamps that relate to the creation date of the emails actually enhances this point.

You definitely do not want multiple machines naming files based on a Unix timestamp. It has to be a single machine because the opportunity for overwriting a file is simply too great.

As demonstrated above, I believe that the numbers of the filenames correspond to the order that the emails were archived. If so, the numbers that are missing, represent other emails not captured in FOIA2009.zip.

I wrote a short Bash program3 to calculate the variances between the numbering system of the email filenames. The result is staggering, that's a lot of email outside of what was released. Here's a graph of the variances in order as well as a graph with the variances numerically sorted . Graph info down below.

< Variance from Email Number to the 	  last Email NumberVariances sorted and plotted >

The first graph is a little hard to read, but that's mostly because the first variance is 8,805,971. To see a little better, just lop off the first variance and rerun gnuplot. For simplicity, that graph is here. The mean of the variances is 402839.36 so the average amount of emails between each released email is 402,839. While not really applicable, but useful, the standard deviation is 736228.56 and you can visualize that from the second graph.

I realize that variance without reference is useless, in this instance the number of days between emails. Here is a grep of the emails with their dates of origin.

I do not see the administrators copying the email at the departmental level, but rather at the mail gateway level. This is logical for a few reasons:

  • The machine name ueams2.uea.ac.uk implies that there are other departmental mail servers with the names like ueams1.uea.ac.uk, (or even ueams.uea.ac.uk), maybe a ueams3.uea.ac.uk. If true, then you would need to copy email from at least one other server with the same scripts. This duplication of effort is non-elegant.
  • There is a second machine that you have to copy emails from and that is the MS Exchange server so you would need a third set of scripts to create a copy of email. Again, this would be unlike an Administrator.
  • Departmental machines can be outside the purview of Administration staff or allow non-Administrative staff access. This is not where you want to be placing copies of emails for the purposes of Institutional protection.
  • As shown with the email number variances, and if they are representative of the email number as it passed through UEA's email systems, that's a lot of emails from a departmental mail server and more like an institutional mail gateway.
  • As the emails have been shown to be directly related to the Unix epoch, it seems certain that a single machine was responsible for naming the files. Having multiple servers writing files out with a filename based on a timestamp will certainly overwrite some files at some point.

So given the assumptions listed above, the hacker would have to have access to the gateway mail server and/or the Administration file server where the emails were archived. This machine would most likely be an Administrative file server. It would not be optimal for an Administrator to clutter up a production server open to the Internet with sensitive archives.




dionysius

dionysius Avatar

Location: The People's Republic of Austin
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:34pm

 cc_rider wrote:

Sadly, I'm with you. I believe there is such a thing as global warming. I don't know what actually causes it. We can infer that human activity caused it, but there isn't really any way to know. Vesuvius, Pinatubo, Mt. Saint Helens: THOSE did something us puny mortals can only HOPE to aspire to.

I don't think there is anything we can do to stop it. It is the height of hubris to think we have control over this ball of confusion. We can spend tons of money on whatever band-aids are trendy, and the temp is gonna keep going up.

I'm gonna have another beer.
 

Not only can we puny mortals aspire to that, we DO pump more carbon into the atmosphere every year than any natural source. Denialists point to volcanoes as sources, but these are dwarfed by the human contribution. "It is estimated that volcanoes release about 130-230 million tonnes (145-255 million tons) of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. This is about a factor of 1000 smaller than the sum of the other natural sources and about factor of about 100 smaller than the sources from human activity."
And according to NOAA News Online, Story 2412. 2005-03-31. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2412.htm. , "Human activities such as the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation have caused the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to increase by about 35% since the beginning of the age of industrialization."

That's us, not volcanoes or solar sunlight variation or even our farting cows. Every time you drive a car or turn on the lights, that's more carbon in the atmosphere.


Coaxial

Coaxial Avatar

Location: 543 miles west of Paradis,1491 miles eas
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:27pm

 JrzyTmata wrote:



this is not a political statement. it's just what I do. I like funny cats and tomatoes.
 
And saying STFU...{#Hug}

islander

islander Avatar

Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:25pm

 Welly wrote:

If I come paddling up in my kayak will you take me in? {#Wink}
I'll promise to bring some good BC wine with me.

 
As long as you recycle. Oh, and I have to win the Lotto too or else it will be crowded on the Harrisea.  If not I'll be going down swinging with the rest of you as it all falls apart.

dionysius

dionysius Avatar

Location: The People's Republic of Austin
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:07pm

 islander wrote:

I'm pretty sure we are doomed.
 
I'm not that pessimistic. But we are in trouble, and have to act and act quickly, or we will be. We're not in time to save many plant and animal species, I'm afraid. The slow-motion catastrophe we've made and that we're living through will be the next mass extinction event comparable to the P-T and K-T events. But we can perhaps save ourselves, if we get our resource use, carbon emission, and (as you suggest) population under control. Soon.

JrzyTmata

JrzyTmata Avatar



Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:06pm

 Welly wrote:

The old grade 5 tomato + fruit flies in the mason jar science experiemt, remember?

(And I'm gonna wait for you after school.)
 


this is not a political statement. it's just what I do. I like funny cats and tomatoes.

cc_rider

cc_rider Avatar

Location: Bastrop
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 6:04pm

 islander wrote:

I'm pretty sure we are doomed. Everyone wants an easy solution, and there just isn't one anymore. The people willing to make changes are too few to make up for the many more who aren't. And that bolded bit is the elephant in the room (well one of them anyway), I've yet to hear anyone say population control. Have 0 kids (I use the term child free) and people think there is something wrong with you, have 8 and you get a TV show. I think we need to buy set asides for the farmland it will take to feed us for our lives, and should have to do the same for any children you bring into the mix. then factor in some dump space, and a small fee for environmental impact...

Maybe we'll get Dio's Fusion reactor in time. But I'm also buying lotto tickets because it looks to me like the same odds. Even money:a clean safe energy source, or I can buy a mountain near the coast and wait for it to become an island to live out my days.
 
Sadly, I'm with you. I believe there is such a thing as global warming. I don't know what actually causes it. We can infer that human activity caused it, but there isn't really any way to know. Vesuvius, Pinatubo, Mt. Saint Helens: THOSE did something us puny mortals can only HOPE to aspire to.

I don't think there is anything we can do to stop it. It is the height of hubris to think we have control over this ball of confusion. We can spend tons of money on whatever band-aids are trendy, and the temp is gonna keep going up.

I'm gonna have another beer.

Welly

Welly Avatar

Location: Lotusland
Gender: Female


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:57pm

 islander wrote:

I'm pretty sure we are doomed. Everyone wants an easy solution, and there just isn't one anymore. The people willing to make changes are too few to make up for the many more who aren't. And that bolded bit is the elephant in the room (well one of them anyway), I've yet to hear anyone say population control. Have 0 kids (I use the term child free) and people think there is something wrong with you, have 8 and you get a TV show. I think we need to buy set asides for the farmland it will take to feed us for our lives, and should have to do the same for any children you bring into the mix. then factor in some dump space, and a small fee for environmental impact...

Maybe we'll get Dio's Fusion reactor in time. But I'm also buying lotto tickets because it looks to me like the same odds. Even money:a clean safe energy source, or I can buy a mountain near the coast and wait for it to become an island to live out my days.
 
If I come paddling up in my kayak will you take me in? {#Wink}
I'll promise to bring some good BC wine with me.
islander

islander Avatar

Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:55pm

 Welly wrote:

You can't deny that we are living in a closed and finite system, just like the mason jar. And we're using the resources up and growing our population too quickly.
But nobody wants to talk about limiting growth.
 
I'm pretty sure we are doomed. Everyone wants an easy solution, and there just isn't one anymore. The people willing to make changes are too few to make up for the many more who aren't. And that bolded bit is the elephant in the room (well one of them anyway), I've yet to hear anyone say population control. Have 0 kids (I use the term child free) and people think there is something wrong with you, have 8 and you get a TV show. I think we need to buy set asides for the farmland it will take to feed us for our lives, and should have to do the same for any children you bring into the mix. then factor in some dump space, and a small fee for environmental impact...

Maybe we'll get Dio's Fusion reactor in time. But I'm also buying lotto tickets because it looks to me like the same odds. Even money:a clean safe energy source, or I can buy a mountain near the coast and wait for it to become an island to live out my days.

Welly

Welly Avatar

Location: Lotusland
Gender: Female


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:44pm

 islander wrote:

is a grade 5 tomato like a grade A tomato?

And all your experiment proves is that under the right conditions a tomato can turn into a fruit fly.
 
You can't deny that we are living in a closed and finite system, just like the mason jar. And we're using the resources up and growing our population too quickly.
But nobody wants to talk about limiting growth.

islander

islander Avatar

Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:41pm

 Welly wrote:

Well, see you take a tomato, right? And you put it in this mason jar, see?And then you put in a few fruit flies. And then you put on the lid. And you wait. And you watch. Because those fruit flies love that tomato and they, er, love each other too. So they eat and procreate like...well like fruit flies. And eventually the tomato is mostly gone and the jar is full of mostly fruit flies. THE END.
 
is a grade 5 tomato like a grade A tomato?

And all your experiment proves is that under the right conditions a tomato can turn into a fruit fly.

Welly

Welly Avatar

Location: Lotusland
Gender: Female


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:31pm

 steeler wrote:


I did read Lord of the Flies.

That plays out here on a daily basis.  {#Lol}

 
{#Roflol} yeah. I know. {#High-five}
oldviolin

oldviolin Avatar

Location: esse quam videri
Gender: Male


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:29pm

 dionysius wrote:


Having patience with wrongheadedness may be a virtue you possess more than I do, OV. The questions have already mostly been answered; the "doubt" is a politicized, artificial, manufactured thing that has nothing to do with science. Anthropogenic climate change is an unfortunate reality; almost every major published scientific paper on the subject points to it. Unable to produce similar scientific literature on their side, the deniers simply seek to create doubt, cast aspersions on what the actual scientists do, delay and deny. I'm actually not worried about it. The proof, as they say, will be in the pudding. In decades to come, as the sea levels rise, icecaps melt, ocean currents and temperatures change, and weather becomes more and more bizarre, people who now claim the title "skeptic" will then be saying, "Well, I knew it all along." The more things change....

 

Indeed, and consistantly. I disagree with the notion that all doubt is political in nature, but you would have to be a little more objective than you seem to admit that. Personally, I believe that there is an anthropogenic index, but to the extent that it can be qualified/quantified with  absolute integrity has in fact become questionable. It seems that whenever honorable questions do arise from honorable folks with solid reputations, they are discounted out of hand. If I were as in the bank as you seem to be, I would be even more dogged in my need to listen to qualified opposing viewpoints, but that's just me. I guess I attempt to stay out of most of this because I would prefer to listen and learn rather than just roll with the general standards of righteous indignation that passes for truth and limited to ever changing scientific opinion and lag time.
Nice stab by the way...Let's hook up on health care or economic recovery some time. 


steeler

steeler Avatar

Location: Perched on the precipice of the cauldron of truth


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:28pm

 Welly wrote:

Well, see you take a tomato, right? And you put it in this mason jar, see?And then you put in a few fruit flies. And then you put on the lid. And you wait. And you watch. Because those fruit flies love that tomato and they, er, love each other too. So they eat and procreate like...well like fruit flies. And eventually the tomato is mostly gone and the jar is full of mostly fruit flies. THE END.
 

I did read Lord of the Flies.

That plays out here on a daily basis.  {#Lol}
Welly

Welly Avatar

Location: Lotusland
Gender: Female


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:27pm

 steeler wrote:


I think I skipped that day.  {#Doh}

 
Well, see you take a tomato, right? And you put it in this mason jar, see?And then you put in a few fruit flies. And then you put on the lid. And you wait. And you watch. Because those fruit flies love that tomato and they, er, love each other too. So they eat and procreate like...well like fruit flies. And eventually the tomato is mostly gone and the jar is full of mostly fruit flies. THE END.

steeler

steeler Avatar

Location: Perched on the precipice of the cauldron of truth


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:24pm

 Welly wrote:

The old grade 5 tomato + fruit flies in the mason jar science experiemt, remember?

(And I'm gonna wait for you after school.)
 

I think I skipped that day.  {#Doh}
steeler

steeler Avatar

Location: Perched on the precipice of the cauldron of truth


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:24pm

 oldviolin wrote:

Actually, I think that you under estimate the rationale and intelligence of a lot of folks with that particular attitude. The fact that climate change is a reality over time is hardly in dispute. The argument comes over just what role humanity actually plays in it. I think there is room for discussion without the snide remarks, don't you? There are plenty of questions yet to be answered, the science of tact and political strategy notwithstanding.
 

Indeed.  There was an Ice Age.  Wiped out dinosaurs until they became, er, well, dinosaurs.

Nothing to worry about. Move along.   {#Wink}

Edit:  A little more seriously . . . it does seem that there is reason for concern, which is what gets me when those out on the margin argue that it is a hoax.


Welly

Welly Avatar

Location: Lotusland
Gender: Female


Posted: Dec 7, 2009 - 5:23pm

 steeler wrote:


Where is your proof of that?  Huh?  Huh?  

{#Wink} 

 
The old grade 5 tomato + fruit flies in the mason jar science experiemt, remember?

(And I'm gonna wait for you after school.)

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