It was a good result (disclosure: Green Party voter speaking).
All of the governing parties lost votes, as expected, but most importantly two minor parties failed to meet the 5% threshold, which means the SPD (center left) and the CDU (center right) can form a coalition on their own and get things done.
The result also means that dithering Scholz will be sidelined (due to large loss of votes) and that the CDU with a much stronger line on supporting Ukraine will come into power. Also, the current defence minister (Pistorius, from the SPD) will hopefully keep his job. He's been great on European defense and supporting Ukraine but was hamstrung by his own party.
Also, Sarah Wagenknecht's party (left wing Putinist) failed to meet the 5% threshold, so that should keep her from polluting the media any longer.
The far right Putinists (AfD) won another 10% of the vote, which will make them a major force in opposition, but nobody wants to go into a coalition with them.
tldr: the result gives Germany another four years to withstand Putin, by which time I expect Russia will have imploded (price of bread already rising there, shades of 1917) and possibly the US too, given its current course of self-destruction. (on that note, any talented Americans wanting to sit out the next four years overseas somewhere, Germany could really use you right now).
Finally, if the country is managed well over the next four years and Putin loses his grip on Russia, the far right will probably see their base erode..
ok, that's the plan. Now let's see how historical contingency stuffs up this one.
I am not particularly fazed by government welfare and pushing back against the worst excesses of unrestrained capitalism, which I think is how he described it. In fact I would even be on board if that were all she is on about.
But that is most definitely NOT what Sarah Wagenknecht is doing, though for sure she is trying to mop up all the votes on the radical left in the process.
Basically, she routinely pushes the Putin narrative at just about every opportunity she gets (and she gets a LOT of exposure here). She grew up in Socialist East Germany and sees the downfall of the Wall as a personal tragedy for her. She's married to Oskar Lafontaine (the most left wing of all German chancellors) and is good buddies with Gerhard Schröder IIRC.
So to equate her with a typical left-leaning Democratic Party that wants to work within the rules and with business interests is way off the mark. What I see her doing is pushing for the reconstitution of the Soviet empire and wouldn't have a problem with a return to true state ownership. This would basically put her and her cronies in power (backed by Russia) to the detriment of basically everyone else. Admittedly, this is highly unlikely at this stage, but, were Russia to win the war against Ukraine, subjugate it, rejuvenate its army and manage to split NATO (Trump in power, etc.) there would be sweet FA standing in the way of Russia asserting its hegemony over former satellite states, including Germany, especially if she kept polling at these high numbers. In other words, she wants to turn back the clock to the glorious old days where no one had any freedom but got an apartment and spartan rations, when available. Not really my cup of tea.
It's also obscurantist, even if you are on the radical left. You only have to look at who owns business interests in Russia to see how the Soviet dream has actually morphed into a protectionist racket. This is what she is actually pushing IMO because she and her mates (Gerhard Schröder etc.) would be the big winners of it. Egalitarianism and personal freedoms be damned.
It's a pretty good indication of the miserable state of German politics that people are so pissed off that they even give her the time of day.
I am not particularly fazed by government welfare and pushing back against the worst excesses of unrestrained capitalism, which I think is how he described it. In fact I would even be on board if that were all she is on about.
But that is most definitely NOT what Sarah Wagenknecht is doing, though for sure she is trying to mop up all the votes on the radical left in the process.
Basically, she routinely pushes the Putin narrative at just about every opportunity she gets (and she gets a LOT of exposure here). She grew up in Socialist East Germany and sees the downfall of the Wall as a personal tragedy for her. She's married to Oskar Lafontaine (the most left wing of all German chancellors) and is good buddies with Gerhard Schröder IIRC.
So to equate her with a typical left-leaning Democratic Party that wants to work within the rules and with business interests is way off the mark. What I see her doing is pushing for the reconstitution of the Soviet empire and wouldn't have a problem with a return to true state ownership. This would basically put her and her cronies in power (backed by Russia) to the detriment of basically everyone else. Admittedly, this is highly unlikely at this stage, but, were Russia to win the war against Ukraine, subjugate it, rejuvenate its army and manage to split NATO (Trump in power, etc.) there would be sweet FA standing in the way of Russia asserting its hegemony over former satellite states, including Germany, especially if she kept polling at these high numbers. In other words, she wants to turn back the clock to the glorious old days where no one had any freedom but got an apartment and spartan rations, when available. Not really my cup of tea.
It's also obscurantist, even if you are on the radical left. You only have to look at who owns business interests in Russia to see how the Soviet dream has actually morphed into a protectionist racket. This is what she is actually pushing IMO because she and her mates (Gerhard Schröder etc.) would be the big winners of it. Egalitarianism and personal freedoms be damned.
It's a pretty good indication of the miserable state of German politics that people are so pissed off that they even give her the time of day.
yes and no. Like MAGA in the States, the swing to the right-wing is first and foremost a protest vote. In terms of constructive solutions they have very little to offer, unless you call bashing immigrants constructive (some people actually do!)
The momentum has also been fuelled by Russian disinformation campaigns, a discernible susceptibility for anti-US rhetoric ("we see through the U.S. strategy to make us a vassal state") born of the West German / East German divide, widespread fear as the German economy falters (the car industry being eroded by the Chinese as just one example), demographic change (gentrification) etc. etc. and a failure of the mainstream parties to address real concerns in a coherent way.
Yes, it is a shame, but it was a long time coming and maybe it is the shot in the arm that politics in Germany needed. This guy says it best.
y
It is interesting and disturbing how immigration drives so much backlash. I think that in part it is because realistically almost every country benefits from some immigration and many people do feel genuine compassion for refugees but realise no country can possible accommodate all the ones that want to come and the genuine challenges of large sudden influxes.
The current Australian backlash against immigration is a result of a fairly rapid increase in numbers, post pandemic. The primary complaint is that most people can't afford to buy houses in the big cities, or even the small ones. Now, I don't believe immigration has much impact on the buying market, at least in the short term but does challenge the rental market. Yes, there are a few people with money coming in and buying up housing but that is more an issue of local boomers with multiple investment properties. Nevermind that foreign ownership of our ports and power infrastructure is a far greater problem and probably the real problem is mainly wage stagnation.
Australia is extraordinarily cruel to refugees. If they get legal status, they still can't work and don't have a path to permanent residency. Ok not as cruel as generations stuck in camps in Jordan... But by the same token, it is frankly strange that Tamil refugees from Sri Lanka (the Tamils lost a war for independence there) can go to Tamil India and then claim refugee status in Australia if they make it here. I don't pretend to have the answers but I have known people who migrated as refugees and have made a very positive impact on society. And nearly every family in Australia immigrated within the last 4 generations or so.
(...) The Christian Democrats lost ground in Saxony and only made minor gains in Thuringia. Seeing that they are the main opposition party at the national level, where the traffic-signal coalition is highly unpopular, one would have expected them to profit from this. They didnât. Interesting is that one polling agency is claiming most of the voters for the Christian Democrats do not support the party or its programme, but voted for the party to prevent the AfD from winning the election. An important point, if true.
Today was without a doubt a fiasco for the West German legacy parties, but really does not come as a surprise. With their neo-liberal policies, which are driving the less well off to the wall as well as pushing the German economy into recession, they have alienated much of the German population. If you take the election results and add the non-voters, these legacy parties can currently only mobilise support among a third ot the nationâs citizens. In Thuringia it was barely twenty percent.
With no policies that will serve large parts of the German citizenry, the West German legacy parties have turned to polemical defamation. Anyone against them is either a populist, a fascist, an anti-Semite, a Putin stooge or similar. This has lost its efficacy over time. Their warmongering, especially by the Greens, in Ukraine and occupied Palestine is not supported by most of the German population, especially in the Eastern part, and then mainly among the metropolitan elite in the West.
Following todayâs fiasco these legacy parties are claiming that they have to listen to the voters. That is rather difficult if your only form of communication with the people is giving commands, which in effect are the same commands you are receiving from corporate interests. It is no wonder that what we saw at Sundayâs election is spilling over to the Western states of Germany, or that a political party like the BSW that was established just a few months ago has won third place in both of todayâs elections. On 22 September there will be a further election in an East German state: Brandenburg. Although a large number of its citizens have moved from West Berlin, altering its social and political basis, the results may well be similar to todayâs two elections, in which case it will be difficult to stop the decline of the West German legacy parties.
But, much like in this country - will the democratic parties actually deliver? Lately people seem to think rhetoric that agrees with their perspective is far more important than actual action, ala Drumpf's term.
May I ask, what would be termed 'action' in your words?
yes and no. Like MAGA in the States, the swing to the right-wing is first and foremost a protest vote. In terms of constructive solutions they have very little to offer, unless you call bashing immigrants constructive (some people actually do!)
The momentum has also been fuelled by Russian disinformation campaigns, a discernible susceptibility for anti-US rhetoric ("we see through the U.S. strategy to make us a vassal state") born of the West German / East German divide, widespread fear as the German economy falters (the car industry being eroded by the Chinese as just one example), demographic change (gentrification) etc. etc. and a failure of the mainstream parties to address real concerns in a coherent way.
Yes, it is a shame, but it was a long time coming and maybe it is the shot in the arm that politics in Germany needed. This guy says it best.
But, much like in this country - will the democratic parties actually deliver? Lately people seem to think rhetoric that agrees with their perspective is far more important than actual action, ala Drumpf's term.
It is a worldwide and ubiquitously ongoing reaction of the people towards their capitalist establishment. It doesn't even need to be watered down by propagandists and demagogues to something less all-anwesend, as it's in the DNA of the people. No AI - no HYPE - no WAR needed by anyone, against everyone... and an ongoing proclaim against life itself is kind of exhausting, or so I imagine.
Yet sometimes rewarding, wie das Schmieren der Weltachse.
yes and no. Like MAGA in the States, the swing to the right-wing is first and foremost a protest vote. In terms of constructive solutions they have very little to offer, unless you call bashing immigrants constructive (some people actually do!)
The momentum has also been fuelled by Russian disinformation campaigns, a discernible susceptibility for anti-US rhetoric ("we see through the U.S. strategy to make us a vassal state") born of the West German / East German divide, widespread fear as the German economy falters (the car industry being eroded by the Chinese as just one example), demographic change (gentrification) etc. etc. and a failure of the mainstream parties to address real concerns in a coherent way.
Yes, it is a shame, but it was a long time coming and maybe it is the shot in the arm that politics in Germany needed. This guy says it best.
