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Sorry I didnât catch this earlier. This did get a little buzz around the forecasting community because the general public rarely catches the nuance of a statement like this. Because of a larger catalog of large subduction earthquakes, some that have had precursor large events, foreshocks, there are models that suggest a greater likelihood that a mainshock could follow. If you look at the statement âthe likelihood of a new, huge earthquake occurring is relatively higher than during normal times.â . It is true but the elevated likelihood is extremely small.
Here is the dilemma, you want to let people know that they should make sure their emergency plans are ready to go, just in case. However you donât want to âcry wolfâ and have the public start to ignore warnings. Thatâs why you give some credence to a fairly unlikely event that might have significant consequences.
As for NoEnzâs question about whether a Coulomb stress model was used. almost certainly. In simple terms it considers the state of stress along the non-ruptured adjacent fault and other nearby faults. When the earthquake occurs it sends out shear waves that perturb the stress of those other faults. In some instances that nearby fault may actually experience a reduction in accumulated stress, delaying the next earthquake. On the other hand if the nearby fault is close to failure the stress pulse may kick it over the edge. Itâs a very complicated model that is intriguing.
Iâm sitting on a beach in Costa Rica puzzling this.
Risk is very difficult to communicate. I think I'd go with, "This swarm means a slightly higher risk of a very large earthquake but the chances of that happening are still low. Make sure you have prepared an emergency plan and are ready for a severe earthquake."
I'd probably provide a link to as site that shows how to prepare a plan and be ready for earthquakes if you have one.
KurtFLQ, Iâm sorry youâre getting to experience this swarm. They can be unsettling events. Here is a subreddit post by some reputable geologists that explains it in both easily digestible terms but also dives a little more into the science if youâre interested. Earthquake swarm rattles Brawley, California
This area is not immune to swarms. Most have not been associated with any further activity beyond some days or weeks of annoyance.
NEW: After today's magnitude 7.7 quake off the Pacific coast of Japan, the country has issued a 'megaquake advisory', suggesting there's a 10x greater risk of a magnitude 8.0+ quake in the coming days.
Sorry I didnât catch this earlier. This did get a little buzz around the forecasting community because the general public rarely catches the nuance of a statement like this. Because of a larger catalog of large subduction earthquakes, some that have had precursor large events, foreshocks, there are models that suggest a greater likelihood that a mainshock could follow. If you look at the statement âthe likelihood of a new, huge earthquake occurring is relatively higher than during normal times.â . It is true but the elevated likelihood is extremely small.
Here is the dilemma, you want to let people know that they should make sure their emergency plans are ready to go, just in case. However you donât want to âcry wolfâ and have the public start to ignore warnings. Thatâs why you give some credence to a fairly unlikely event that might have significant consequences.
As for NoEnzâs question about whether a Coulomb stress model was used. almost certainly. In simple terms it considers the state of stress along the non-ruptured adjacent fault and other nearby faults. When the earthquake occurs it sends out shear waves that perturb the stress of those other faults. In some instances that nearby fault may actually experience a reduction in accumulated stress, delaying the next earthquake. On the other hand if the nearby fault is close to failure the stress pulse may kick it over the edge. Itâs a very complicated model that is intriguing.
Iâm sitting on a beach in Costa Rica puzzling this.
Well, it's still a small chance in absolute terms. Not a 10% chance.
Just ten times more likely than the smalll chance before.
However, the Tohoku megathrust quake (the Fukushima one) was preceded by an M7 two days before.
Also plate boundaries like this have a habit of unzipping in stages.
NEW: After today's magnitude 7.7 quake off the Pacific coast of Japan, the country has issued a 'megaquake advisory', suggesting there's a 10x greater risk of a magnitude 8.0+ quake in the coming days.
NEW: After today's magnitude 7.7 quake off the Pacific coast of Japan, the country has issued a 'megaquake advisory', suggesting there's a 10x greater risk of a magnitude 8.0+ quake in the coming days.
We had a decent shaker last Monday with many aftershocks.
It freaked out all the snowbirds. Running out of their houses, crying, etc. etc.
I was driving so I missed it. Got a big warning on the phone and wondered what all the excitement was about.
Debbie called me and asked "Did you fell that?" Nope missed it. Dog gone it.
It turned out it was only a 4.9, and it was centered almost under my son's house on the other side of the valley. Anything under a 6.0 is meh.
He lives on the North American Plate. We're on the Pacific Plate.
Anything under a 6.0 is meh.
We did lose a small ceramic pumpkin off a shelf.
Location: Really deep in the heart of South California Gender:
Posted:
Jan 22, 2026 - 4:27pm
We had a decent shaker last Monday with many aftershocks.
It freaked out all the snowbirds. Running out of their houses, crying, etc. etc.
I was driving so I missed it. Got a big warning on the phone and wondered what all the excitement was about.
Debbie called me and asked "Did you fell that?" Nope missed it. Dog gone it.
It turned out it was only a 4.9, and it was centered almost under my son's house on the other side of the valley. Anything under a 6.0 is meh.
He lives on the North American Plate. We're on the Pacific Plate.
Anything under a 6.0 is meh.
We did lose a small ceramic pumpkin off a shelf.
Took a look at the USGS site. If you are interested, it is a subduction zone earthquake indicated by the Moment Tensor (blue and white "beachball") where to Cocos Plate (oceanic) is moving northeastward beneath the North America plate (Mexico in this case). The PAGER information (automated first estimates of damage and loss for early responders suggests this is a relatively low impact event as far as damage but fatalities could be some fatalities, around 10 or so. This info will be updated as more information comes in.
The "Did You Feel It" responses are pretty low (<500) so that is sometimes an indicator of how much shaking happened. Also, the hypocenter (initiation of shaking at depth) was about 35 km so it's deep enough that an earthquake of that magnitude would have limited strong motion at the surface. Probably too deep and small to produce a tsunami.
We have a friend in Oaxaca (the city) - she felt nothing.
Took a look at the USGS site. If you are interested, it is a subduction zone earthquake indicated by the Moment Tensor (blue and white "beachball") where to Cocos Plate (oceanic) is moving northeastward beneath the North America plate (Mexico in this case). The PAGER information (automated first estimates of damage and loss for early responders suggests this is a relatively low impact event as far as damage but fatalities could be some fatalities, around 10 or so. This info will be updated as more information comes in.
The "Did You Feel It" responses are pretty low (<500) so that is sometimes an indicator of how much shaking happened. Also, the hypocenter (initiation of shaking at depth) was about 35 km so it's deep enough that an earthquake of that magnitude would have limited strong motion at the surface. Probably too deep and small to produce a tsunami.
Location: Really deep in the heart of South California Gender:
Posted:
Jan 2, 2026 - 1:48pm
ScottFromWyoming wrote:
I took a scorpion to show and tell once. My dad worked in the oil field in the badlands and they would come into the shop. He caught one and put it in a box so I could make a terrarium for it. But instead I took it to school for show and tell and on the way I stopped by my friend Troy's house. He didn't believe it was a real scorpion so he took the lid off and it scuttled across the bottom of the box and Troy flipped the whole thing across the room and it landed on the shag carpet and disappeared immediately under the magazine rack. By that time we were late for school so Troy yelled downstairs to his mom "going to school now, there's a scorpion under the couch, bye!" Troy's mom called my mom (accurately guessing that I was involved) and for some reason *I* was sent from school to their house to capture the scorpion. Which was easy because it was sort of tangled up in the fuzzy carpet. For some reason the school was not interested in my show and tell so I took it home and put it in a gallon jar terrarium until it died. Probably of starvation or boredom but I had put a little miniature cactus in there to make it feel at home.
I took a scorpion to show and tell once. My dad worked in the oil field in the badlands and they would come into the shop. He caught one and put it in a box so I could make a terrarium for it. But instead I took it to school for show and tell and on the way I stopped by my friend Troy's house. He didn't believe it was a real scorpion so he took the lid off and it scuttled across the bottom of the box and Troy flipped the whole thing across the room and it landed on the shag carpet and disappeared immediately under the magazine rack. By that time we were late for school so Troy yelled downstairs to his mom "going to school now, there's a scorpion under the couch, bye!" Troy's mom called my mom (accurately guessing that I was involved) and for some reason *I* was sent from school to their house to capture the scorpion. Which was easy because it was sort of tangled up in the fuzzy carpet. For some reason the school was not interested in my show and tell so I took it home and put it in a gallon jar terrarium until it died. Probably of starvation or boredom but I had put a little miniature cactus in there to make it feel at home.
I took a scorpion to show and tell once. My dad worked in the oil field in the badlands and they would come into the shop. He caught one and put it in a box so I could make a terrarium for it. But instead I took it to school for show and tell and on the way I stopped by my friend Troy's house. He didn't believe it was a real scorpion so he took the lid off and it scuttled across the bottom of the box and Troy flipped the whole thing across the room and it landed on the shag carpet and disappeared immediately under the magazine rack. By that time we were late for school so Troy yelled downstairs to his mom "going to school now, there's a scorpion under the couch, bye!" Troy's mom called my mom (accurately guessing that I was involved) and for some reason *I* was sent from school to their house to capture the scorpion. Which was easy because it was sort of tangled up in the fuzzy carpet. For some reason the school was not interested in my show and tell so I took it home and put it in a gallon jar terrarium until it died. Probably of starvation or boredom but I had put a little miniature cactus in there to make it feel at home.
