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A catastrophic earthquake just struck northern Venezuela. Large buildings have collapsed, and the USGS PAGER is forecasting thousands of fatalities. Our colleague in Caracas, Dr. Frank Audemard, has shared with us what the earthquake felt like and footage from the region. Hereâs what we know.
it was actually two large quakes in close succession, 7.2 followed by a 7.5 half an hour later.
yikes.
A catastrophic earthquake just struck northern Venezuela. Large buildings have collapsed, and the USGS PAGER is forecasting thousands of fatalities. Our colleague in Caracas, Dr. Frank Audemard, has shared with us what the earthquake felt like and footage from the region. Hereâs what we know.
it was actually two large quakes in close succession, 7.2 followed by a 7.5 half an hour later.
yikes.
Sorry, I just noticed this.
Oh, they don't bother me. We always have movement around here so this isn't a big deal. And one rarely feels anything. The local paper post the top 3 "Recent Earthquakes" everyday.
I always say if it's under 5.5... Pfffftt.
Location: Really deep in the heart of South California Gender:
Posted:
Jun 23, 2026 - 8:12pm
geoff_morphini wrote:
KurtFLQ, Iâm sorry youâre getting to experience this swarm. They can be unsettling events. Here is a subreddit post by some reputable geologists that explains it in both easily digestible terms but also dives a little more into the science if youâre interested. Earthquake swarm rattles Brawley, California
This area is not immune to swarms. Most have not been associated with any further activity beyond some days or weeks of annoyance.
Sorry, I just noticed this.
Oh, they don't bother me. We always have movement around here so this isn't a big deal. And one rarely feels anything. The local paper post the top 3 "Recent Earthquakes" everyday.
I always say if it's under 5.5... Pfffftt.
Sorry I didnât catch this earlier. This did get a little buzz around the forecasting community because the general public rarely catches the nuance of a statement like this. Because of a larger catalog of large subduction earthquakes, some that have had precursor large events, foreshocks, there are models that suggest a greater likelihood that a mainshock could follow. If you look at the statement âthe likelihood of a new, huge earthquake occurring is relatively higher than during normal times.â . It is true but the elevated likelihood is extremely small.
Here is the dilemma, you want to let people know that they should make sure their emergency plans are ready to go, just in case. However you donât want to âcry wolfâ and have the public start to ignore warnings. Thatâs why you give some credence to a fairly unlikely event that might have significant consequences.
As for NoEnzâs question about whether a Coulomb stress model was used. almost certainly. In simple terms it considers the state of stress along the non-ruptured adjacent fault and other nearby faults. When the earthquake occurs it sends out shear waves that perturb the stress of those other faults. In some instances that nearby fault may actually experience a reduction in accumulated stress, delaying the next earthquake. On the other hand if the nearby fault is close to failure the stress pulse may kick it over the edge. Itâs a very complicated model that is intriguing.
Iâm sitting on a beach in Costa Rica puzzling this.
Risk is very difficult to communicate. I think I'd go with, "This swarm means a slightly higher risk of a very large earthquake but the chances of that happening are still low. Make sure you have prepared an emergency plan and are ready for a severe earthquake."
I'd probably provide a link to as site that shows how to prepare a plan and be ready for earthquakes if you have one.
KurtFLQ, Iâm sorry youâre getting to experience this swarm. They can be unsettling events. Here is a subreddit post by some reputable geologists that explains it in both easily digestible terms but also dives a little more into the science if youâre interested. Earthquake swarm rattles Brawley, California
This area is not immune to swarms. Most have not been associated with any further activity beyond some days or weeks of annoyance.
NEW: After today's magnitude 7.7 quake off the Pacific coast of Japan, the country has issued a 'megaquake advisory', suggesting there's a 10x greater risk of a magnitude 8.0+ quake in the coming days.
Sorry I didnât catch this earlier. This did get a little buzz around the forecasting community because the general public rarely catches the nuance of a statement like this. Because of a larger catalog of large subduction earthquakes, some that have had precursor large events, foreshocks, there are models that suggest a greater likelihood that a mainshock could follow. If you look at the statement âthe likelihood of a new, huge earthquake occurring is relatively higher than during normal times.â . It is true but the elevated likelihood is extremely small.
Here is the dilemma, you want to let people know that they should make sure their emergency plans are ready to go, just in case. However you donât want to âcry wolfâ and have the public start to ignore warnings. Thatâs why you give some credence to a fairly unlikely event that might have significant consequences.
As for NoEnzâs question about whether a Coulomb stress model was used. almost certainly. In simple terms it considers the state of stress along the non-ruptured adjacent fault and other nearby faults. When the earthquake occurs it sends out shear waves that perturb the stress of those other faults. In some instances that nearby fault may actually experience a reduction in accumulated stress, delaying the next earthquake. On the other hand if the nearby fault is close to failure the stress pulse may kick it over the edge. Itâs a very complicated model that is intriguing.
Iâm sitting on a beach in Costa Rica puzzling this.
Well, it's still a small chance in absolute terms. Not a 10% chance.
Just ten times more likely than the smalll chance before.
However, the Tohoku megathrust quake (the Fukushima one) was preceded by an M7 two days before.
Also plate boundaries like this have a habit of unzipping in stages.
NEW: After today's magnitude 7.7 quake off the Pacific coast of Japan, the country has issued a 'megaquake advisory', suggesting there's a 10x greater risk of a magnitude 8.0+ quake in the coming days.
NEW: After today's magnitude 7.7 quake off the Pacific coast of Japan, the country has issued a 'megaquake advisory', suggesting there's a 10x greater risk of a magnitude 8.0+ quake in the coming days.
